Global Trends in Commodities and Threats to Watch in 2024

"After three years of extreme volatility, commodities prices are set to broadly stabilize in 2024," according a report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (the EIU). Moreover, "This apparent stasis may come as a surprise given the many geopolitical headwinds buffeting the global economy at the moment. These range from adverse weather conditions to escalating conflict in the Middle East and rocketing freight rates owing to disrupted shipping routes through the Suez and Panama canals. However, this holding pattern for commodities prices in 2024 belies what will be an eventful year as markets remain volatile in the short term before secular trends, especially those linked to the green transition, come to the fore."

The EIU says El Niño and the Russia-Ukraine war still loom large for soft commodities. With respect to the former, "Prices for food, feedstuffs and beverages (FFB) will rise over the course of 2024, driven primarily by beverages, as El Niño will hit production and therefore prices for coffee and cocoa will increase." The report encouragingly says "Some relief is in sight, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) giving a 72% chance that El Niño will come to an end by mid-year. But the damage to this season's harvests will already be done by then, with coffee and cocoa production forecast to fall by 9% and 13% respectively in the 2023/24 crop season."

As for Russia's unjustified invasion of Ukraine, the report points out that "Russia's permanent withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative poses another upside risk to global food prices, particularly wheat, maize and oilseeds. However, the impact on prices so far has been muted, as Ukraine has managed to export grains and oilseeds via alternative road and rail routes across the country's western borders." The EIU explains how "Ukraine's grain exports initially plummeted following the collapse of the grain deal last summer, but they have recently picked up after Ukraine successfully established a temporary shipping corridor through the western Black Sea with the help of Romania and Bulgaria."

The report importantly says "exports will still not match pre-war levels, which will keep a floor under wheat and maize prices in the short run. At the same time, rice prices will rise in 2024, underpinned by white rice export restrictions in India — by far the largest supplier to the global market."

The EIU is also forecasting oilseeds prices stabilizing in 2024 and as with international soybean stockpiles remaining relatively tight, "prices will remain susceptible to perceived threats to world supplies, either from climate events or further supply-chain disruption." However, the EIU expects "a strong rise in soybean production (owing to a bumper crop in Argentina, which actually benefits from El Niño), which will drive soybean prices downwards over the course of the year. Despite a probable market deficit in the 2023/24 season (October-September), palm oil prices will remain low due to falling prices for rapeseed and sunflowerseed oils, which are also benefiting from Ukraine's temporary export route."

The green transition will be a driver of base metals prices by end-2024, according to the report. The EIU's forecast for their "base metals price index will increase by an average of 3% in 2024, after falling by more than 11% in 2023, as the green transition supports rising demand for critical minerals. Even for metals such as nickel that will register significant year-on-year declines in 2024, prices are poised to rise from their end-2023 levels. Despite a strong supply response from producers, which will lead to a market in oversupply in 2024, low reserves will make nickel susceptible to supply-chain disruption." Furthermore, "London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stockpiles remain low by historical standards and the availability of class 1 nickel will be limited by end-users deciding to avoid using Russian supply."

The EIU is predicting energy prices, excluding crude oil, will trend downwards in 2024. In the comping year, "prices of hydrocarbons will largely trend in the opposite direction than those of most industrial raw materials and soft commodities. We expect average European natural gas prices to fall by one-fifth in 2024, after plummeting by more than two-thirds in 2023, largely due to demand destruction, particularly in industry. However, there will be periodic spikes owing to market anxiety about the security of global supply chains, amid rising geopolitical tensions stoked by the Israel-Hamas war. Nevertheless, prices will remain historically high, limiting any significant recovery in industrial demand."

In addition, "Strong European demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will push up US prices from their current low base and limit the fall in LNG prices. Coal prices will continue to trend downwards as long as gas storage levels in Europe remain seasonally high and LNG continues flowing to the continent, limiting the squeeze on gas supplies in Europe."

As for crude oil prices, "The US has ramped up production and exports, and the global market has moved back into surplus (production exceeding demand). However, as Saudi Arabia is unlikely to increase output markedly this year, and with other OPEC members also implementing voluntary cuts, the market will periodically return to deficit, which will limit the downside to oil price forecasts. Global oil demand will also put a floor under prices and is set to reach record highs in 2024 and in subsequent years as consumption in the developing world continues to increase." What is more, "Heightened geopolitical risks tied to the Israel-Hamas war still threaten to cause prices to soar again. Although we expect crude oil prices to remain volatile, they should mostly trade at about US$80/barrel, essentially where they began the year."

What trends in commodities and threats are you watching in the next 12 months?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Explores How Political and Economic Developments Will Shape Africa's Mining Sector

"Rich in natural resources, the African continent has attracted a large inflow of investment in recent years," says the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in a report that explores how political and economic developments will shape the future of the mining sector in Africa and their key implications on prospective projects in the region. The report adds that "Although extraction of Africa's reserves has been largely hindered by weak domestic governance structures and policy impediments, the continent is set to remain one of the major supplier of a number of commodities in the coming years."

Focusing on four key themes: (1) the upside and downside of risks caused by elevated commodity prices, (2) how sanctions against Russia will affect mining activities in the region, (3) the effects of exploration activities and prospective project development in the region, and (4) and the future of mining in Africa, the report's key findings include:

• Sanctions against Russia—which have largely been more severe than initially expected—will disrupt Russian mining activities in Sub‑Saharan Africa, without having a serious negative impact on domestic mining sectors themselves.
• African economies will face manageable downside risks, which are markedly outweighed by the risks to the upside that stem from steep commodity price growth. This is due mainly to the insignificance of Russian exports for African economies.
• As sanctions become increasingly severe, the EIU expects that Russian miners will struggle to finance current and prospective operations, and may ultimately be forced to sell their concessions for reduced amounts.
• Russia's mining activities in Africa have been growing in recent years, and are increasingly concentrated in weakly governed and authoritarian states. We expect this to continue as the West continues to exclude Russia from the global economy.
• Although higher prices will benefit current production and operations, inflation will disrupt exploration activities and prospective projects. High energy costs, coupled with heightened global risk and uncertainty, will add to the costs of project development.

The EIU explains that "The African continent is home to substantial reserves of copper and cobalt (in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—DRC—Zambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe), diamonds (in Botswana and Angola), platinum (in South Africa and Zimbabwe), uranium (in Namibia, Niger and South Africa), gold (in Ghana, South Africa and Sudan), iron (in South Africa), manganese (in South Africa, Gabon and Ghana), bauxite (in Guinea), lithium (in Zimbabwe), coal (in South Africa and Mozambique), natural gas (in Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria) and petroleum (in Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya)." Moreover, "Africa contains about 12% of total global oil reserves, 12% of natural gas reserves, more than 80% of platinum group metals and more than 40% of the world's gold. Extraction of Africa's reserves has been largely hindered by weak domestic governance structures and policy impediments, alongside the high risk of investments in Africa and low commodity prices during 2016‑20. This has resulted in a notable shortage of exploration activity in the African mining sector."

The report, however, encouragingly points out that "many African commodity exporters—Zambia and Namibia in particular—have initiated procedures to create a business-friendly environment in order to attract investments into their domestic mining sectors. Elevated commodity prices are fueling an export boom across Africa." What is more, "High prices for copper, oil, iron ore, aluminum and gas will stoke investments and are all helping to reduce external imbalances, stabilize currencies and boost economic growth. However, downside risks abound. The continent depends on energy imports (as net crude exporters have insufficient refinery capacity), and the war in Ukraine is set to stoke strong inflationary pressures."

With respect to the impact of Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on African economies, the EIU notes: "Total African exports to Russia add up to only about US$5bn, with imports totaling about US$14bn. Total trade between the regions is small, at about US$20bn, and trade disruptions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not seriously affect African economies. However, it will affect certain African industries, such as cocoa and tobacco, and textiles and clothing." The EIU expects "the clothing industry in Tunisia, in particular, to be hit by negative impact. The tobacco industries in Nigeria, Tanzania and Mozambique will also be affected by the conflict."

Lastly, the EIU is forecasting "that Africa's mining sector traders will not be heavily affected by loss of Russian exports or activity. The total amount of exports to Russia is relatively small, and the growth in commodity prices will outweigh any marginal loss to total exports." The report importantly notes that "alternative export partners, China in particular, will take up the excess output. Given the strong demand for global commodities, the small amount of lost Russian exports will quickly be taken up by alternative buyers. In countries such as Sudan, Mali and the CAR, discrete Russian mining operations are likely to continue, circumventing sanctions."

What political and economic developments do you think will shape Africa's mining sector?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.