5G Expected to Contribute $10 Billion to Africa's Economy by 2030

"Mobile connectivity is a key driver of digital transformation and socioeconomic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," according to GSMA's annual report on the state of the Sub-Saharan Africa's mobile economy. The report points out that "Governments and businesses are increasingly using 4G and 5G networks alongside technologies such as AI and IoT to enhance productivity and service delivery. Despite growing demand for mobile, a significant usage gap persists. This underscores the need for efforts by operators to address the barriers to mobile internet adoption, such as device affordability, online safety and digital skills."

The report's key findings include:

• Persistent Usage Gap: Mobile internet penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa reached 27 percent by the end of 2023, yet a substantial usage gap of 60 percent remains. This gap represents millions who live within network coverage but face barriers such as device affordability, digital skills deficits, and concerns around online security. Globally, 3.1 billion people – 39 percent of the global population – are impacted by the usage gap. Sub-Saharan Africa is the least connected region, with the largest usage gap worldwide.
• Expanding 4G Coverage and Early 5G Growth: The region's 4G adoption is forecast to reach 50 percent by 2030, overtaking 3G as the primary technology. Although 5G adoption remains in its early stages, it is projected to reach 17 percent of total connections by 2030, primarily in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.
• Economic Impact and Infrastructure Needs for 5G: By 2030, 5G alone is expected to contribute $10 billion to the region's economy, accounting for 6 percent of the mobile sector's total economic impact. GSMA's report emphasizes the need for progressive spectrum policies, particularly the release of mid-band spectrum, to support long-term growth and equitable digital access. Additionally, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries such as Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, addressing demand for high-speed connectivity in underserved areas.
• Strengthening Digital Security: South Africa became the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to implement GSMA Open Gateway APIs, focusing on fraud prevention and security with Number Verification and SIM Swap APIs. This initiative is part of broader efforts across the region to improve digital security, particularly within digital banking​.
• Generative AI Potential: Generative AI is expected to contribute up to $1.5 trillion to Africa's economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly using AI for customer engagement and network optimization. MTN and Vodacom, for instance, are deploying AI-powered initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, although the region faces a shortage of skilled AI professionals.

Through this report, the GSMA, a UK-based organization that aims to unify the mobile ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change, advocates for a series of critical actions to ensure sustainable growth and digital inclusion:

1. Affordability Reforms: High costs remain a barrier to mobile access, with the report calling for reduced taxes on the sector, such as lowering import duties on handsets and cutting activation fees, to make services affordable and accessible for all.
2. Revitalized Universal Service Funds (USFs): Many USFs in Sub-Saharan Africa are underperforming, often hindered by inefficiencies. The report calls for reforms to improve transparency, streamline disbursements, and direct funds toward impactful initiatives, such as digital literacy programs in underserved areas.
3. Progressive Spectrum Policy: With increasing data demands, the report urges governments to release additional spectrum, particularly in the 6 GHz band, and to adopt policies that ensure efficient, affordable, and environmentally sustainable mobile network expansion.

Infographic: GSMA Intelligence

With respect the mobile technology's contributions to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the report says the industry "contributes to SDG 4, which seeks to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education, and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all. Digital transformation is making learning resources more accessible, enhancing educational outcomes and supporting continuous learning. By bridging gaps in education access and improving the quality of education, mobile technology is fostering a more inclusive society."

What investment or commercial opportunities are you seeing in Sub-Sahara's mobile technology industry? What are your recommendations for closing the digital divide?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.