China's 5G Enterprise Services to See Greater Commercial Scale in 2023, Says GSMA

"China's economy is on the road to recovery, following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions from late 2022," the GSMA, an organization that presents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, said in its latest report on the state of China's mobile economy. "Mobile connectivity served as a lifeline throughout the pandemic and will play an even more crucial role in enabling the safe return to social interaction and the restart of many economic activities."

The report, which is available in English and Chinese, notes that "authorities across China have outlined plans to integrate digital technologies, underpinned by advanced mobile connectivity, into every aspect of society to sustain China's competitiveness in an evolving global economy. In 2022, mobile technologies and services generated 5.5% of China's GDP – a contribution that amounted to $1.1 trillion of economic value added."

The UK-based organization adds that "5G will underpin future mobile innovation and services, building on current deployments and adoption." What is more, "The number of 5G base stations in China exceeded 2.3 million at the end of 2022, including approximately 887,000 built during the year. China will be the first market with 1 billion 5G connections, reaching the milestone by 2025. The report also says that "By 2030, 5G connections in China will reach 1.6 billion, accounting for nearly a third of the global total. The technology will add $290 billion to the Chinese economy in 2030, with benefits spread across industries."

Additional key highlights from the report include:

• 5G enterprise services to see greater commercial scale in 2023: "Mainland China is the largest 5G market in the world, accounting for more than 60% of global 5G connections at the end of 2022. With strong take-up of 5G among consumers, the focus of operators is now increasingly shifting to 5G for enterprises. This offers opportunities to grow revenues beyond connectivity in adjacent areas such as cloud services – a segment where operators in China have recently made significant progress."
• Dedicated networks on the rise: "Private and dedicated wireless network solutions are back in vogue, as 5G’s enhanced capabilities move deployments beyond low-profile, niche offerings. Manufacturing and mining are two sectors where demand for private and dedicated 5G networks in China looks particularly strong."
• Innovation underpins China's digital ambitions: "China's digital ambitions are driven by a combination of external and internal factors, notably a slowdown in growth of the real economy. The digital ecosystem, including start-ups, will be at the forefront of efforts to realize China's digital ambitions, with innovation and investments driving the creation of new solutions across the focus areas of China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035."
• The mobile industry shifts towards circularity: "Across the telecoms ecosystem, sustainability has extended beyond corporate social responsibility (CSR) to become a core strategic priority. Industry players are increasingly adopting a model of production, service offering and consumption that involves sharing, leasing, reusing, repairing, refurbishing and recycling existing materials and products for as long as possible."
• Fintech presents opportunities for mobile industry players: "China has developed a lead in fintech services over the past decade, driven by investments in an expanding portfolio of products and surging public demand for electronic payment options. As fintech innovators increasingly leverage emerging technologies (such as big data, AI and cloud computing) to enable more complex and customized solutions, operators have an opportunity to play a greater role in fintech."

The report also reveals the following statistics:

• Unique mobile subscribers in China will total 1.33 billion by 2030;
• There were 1.17 billion mobile internet subscribers in China in 2022, equivalent to 79% adoption;
• 5G will overtake 4G in 2024 to become the dominant mobile technology in China;
• China to be among leading 5G markets globally, with 88% adoption by 2030;
• Smartphone connections will total 1.73 billion in China by 2030, accounting for 93% of connections;
• Smartphone data traffic in China to more than double over the period to 2028;
• Licensed cellular IoT connections in China to double to 3.6 billion by 2030;
• Revenue growth is set to moderate in China over the coming years as 5G adoption reaches maturity;
• Operators in China will spend $291 billion on their networks during 2023–2030, with most on 5G;
• The mobile sector added $1.1 trillion of economic value to the Chinese economy in 2022;
• At the end of the decade, mobile's economic contribution will reach $1.3 trillion;
• The mobile ecosystem in China supported 6 million jobs in 2022;
• The fiscal contribution of the mobile ecosystem reached $110 billion in 2022;
• 5G will add almost $290 billion to the economy in China in 2030; and
• Manufacturing and services will benefit the most from 5G in 2030.

Infographic: GSMA

Regarding the sixth generation mobile system standard (6G), the GSMA points out that "The mobile industry is already studying how 6G will shape the future of mobile. For regulators, ministries, operators, vendors and researchers, spectrum policy for 6G is becoming increasingly important." Furthermore, "2023 marks the beginning of a long journey as new studies begin when the WRC-27 cycle kicks off."

The report concludes by explaining how "6G is expected to become the primary mobile technology in the 2030s and will offer an enhanced user experience over previous generations. It promises ultra-fast data rates with lower latency, significant energy efficiency improvements and greater reliability."

What opportunities are you seeing in China's mobile sector?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Modest Global Growth and Challenges Ahead in 2023, Says EIU

According to a report about the global economic outlook for 2023 published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the global economy is proving resilient amid severe economic headwinds. However, the UK-based organization, says global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow sharply in this year with global inflation remaining stubbornly high. Moreover, the report notes that risks abound for the global economy including fears about global food supplies.

Additional key findings from the report include:

• The EIU expects global economic growth to slow sharply in 2023, reflecting persistent headwinds stemming from the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine, as well as high inflation and rising interest rates.
• The EIU's forecast for global growth stands at 2% (up from 1.9% last month). This upward revision reflects an improvement to our US growth outlook, which the EIU now forecasts at 0.7% for 2023 (up from 0.3% previously).
• The EIU forecasts that the Chinese economy will grow by 5.7% in 2023. The recovery will be consumer-led as the exit from the country's zero-covid policy unleashes pent-up demand for goods and services (including outbound tourism).
• The euro zone has avoided recession in the winter of 2022/23, owing to lower than expected energy demand due to mild temperatures. However, high inflation continues to weigh on spending—the EIU forecasts GDP growth of just 0.7% in the bloc.
• The EIU expects a moderate global recovery in 2024, with real GDP growth of 2.5%. However, growth in OECD economies will remain subdued, at a forecast 1.5%. By contrast, the EIU forecasts growth of 4.1% in non-OECD economies.
• Inflation was a major driver of our forecasts in 2022, and this will continue to be the case in 2023. The EIU expects major central banks to end their tightening cycles by mid-year as inflation slows, but rates will remain high in 2023-24.
• Despite sky-high interest rates, global inflation will subside only gradually, from an estimated 9.3% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. Prices will remain high in level terms, even after inflation subsides, fueling the risk of social unrest.
• Oil prices will remain high in 2023, owing to continued disruption from the war in Ukraine and rising Chinese demand. The EIU expects oil (dated Brent Blend) to trade above US$80/barrel until 2025.

I appreciate how this report provides businesses with foresight of the critical global trends and threats that will shape interest rates, inflation and economic activity in the year ahead. What do you think about the report's findings?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Mobile Connectivity Is a Lifeline for Society

In its latest report that provides insights on the state of the mobile economy worldwide, the GSMA says "Mobile connectivity continues to be a lifeline for society, helping the most vulnerable people in areas affected by conflict and natural disasters to stay connected. It is also enabling advanced connectivity capabilities needed by verticals to innovate amid diverse political, social and macroeconomic headwinds."

The UK-based organization representing the interests of mobile operators worldwide adds that "By the end of 2022, over 5.4 billion people globally subscribed to a mobile service, including 4.4 billion people who also used the mobile internet." The report notes that "The mobile internet usage gap has narrowed markedly in the last five years – from 50% in 2017 to 41% in 2022 on average – but still remains significant and demands urgent attention from all stakeholders."

What is more, "In 2022, mobile technologies and services generated 5% of global GDP, a contribution that amounted to $5.2 trillion of economic value added, and supported 28 million jobs across the wider mobile ecosystem. 5G will underpin future mobile innovation and services, building on ongoing deployments and adoption. 5G adoption will reach 17% this year, rising to 54% (equivalent to 5.3 billion connections) by 2030. The technology will add almost $1 trillion to the global economy in 2030, with benefits spread across all industries."

Key trends shaping the mobile ecosystem include:

• 5G consumer monetization comes into focus: "Throughout 2023, some 30 new markets will launch 5G services; importantly, many of these will be developing markets across Africa and Asia, making 5G a truly global trend. As 5G adoption continues to scale, the monetization imperative will grow."
• Private 5G builds momentum: "Private wireless solutions are back in vogue, as 5G's enhanced capabilities allow deployments to move beyond low-profile niche offerings."
• Mobile industry shifts towards circularity: "Across the telecoms ecosystem, sustainability has extended beyond corporate social responsibility to become a core strategic priority. Industry players are increasingly adopting a model of production, service offering and consumption that involves sharing, leasing, reusing, repairing, refurbishing and recycling existing materials and products for as long as possible."
• The metaverse continues to gain traction: "Momentum for the metaverse continues to grow, alongside advancements in enabling technologies like 5G, AI and wearables. The growing interest from key stakeholders and ecosystem players has led to the emergence of important building blocks for the advancement of the metaverse, notably content and applications, standards and devices, which will be at the forefront of activities in 2023."
• Fintech presents opportunities for mobile industry players: "Fintech has transformed the way financial services cater to consumers and businesses alike. Although investor sentiments fell sharply in 2022 after record funding the previous year, the fundamentals of growth – including high demand, digital-centric lifestyles and enabling regulations – remain strong."

The report also highlights the following statistics:

• There were 5.4 billon unique mobile subscribers in 2022, rising to 6.3 billion by 2030;
• Globally, there were 4.4 billion mobile internet users in 2022, equivalent to 55% penetration;
• 5G will overtake 4G in 2029 to become the dominant mobile technology by the end of this decade;
• 5G adoption will be over 85% in the top 5G markets by 2030, led by the six Gulf Cooperation Council states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), developed Asia Pacific, and North America;
• There will be 9 billion smartphone connections by 2030, equivalent to 92% of total connections;
• Globally, smartphone data traffic will rise more than threefold in the period to 2028, with the biggest users in North America and Northeast Asia;
• The total number of licensed cellular IoT connections will double to 5.3 billion by 2030, with Greater China accounting for two-thirds;
• Revenue growth is expected to remain in positive territory in both developed and developing regions for the period to 2030;
• At the end of the decade, mobile's economic contribution will surpass $6 trillion; and
• The fiscal contribution of the mobile ecosystem reached $530 billion in 2022.

Infographic: GSMA

As for the mobile industry's impact on the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the GSMA explains that "There are now 11 SDGs where mobile's contribution is over 50, compared to six SDGs in 2020 and none in 2015." Furthermore, "The mobile industry continues to achieve its highest impact on SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, driven by the reach of mobile networks and take-up of mobile internet services."

The report encouragingly adds that "The biggest improvements were recorded in the industry's contribution to SDG 1: No Poverty, SDG 2: Zero Hunger and SDG 4: Quality Education. This is due to the increasing proportion of people using mobile for activities such as accessing government services, applying and searching for jobs, and obtaining educational information for themselves or their children." The GSMA also notes that there was "an improvement in the affordability of mobile data and devices. This comes after affordability worsened in 2020 because of the decline in per capita income due to the Covid-19 pandemic."

What aspects of the report did you find of particular interest?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

ITU Report: Internet More Affordable and Widespread, but World's Poorest Still Shut Off From Online Opportunities

In its latest annual report measuring digital development, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the United Nations specialized agency for information and communication technologies (ICTs), says an estimated 5.3 billion people of the earth's 8 billion are using the Internet in 2022, or roughly 66 percent of the world's populations. However, the gender digital divide continues to exist as only 63 percent of women were using the Internet in 2022 compared to 69 percent of men. "This means there are 259 million more men than women using the Internet in 2022," the report notes.

The ITU also finds that youth aged 15-24 years are the driving force of connectivity, with 75 percent of young people worldwide now able to use the Internet.​ The report encouragingly points out: "There are signs that the generational gap is shrinking. In 2020, the difference between the penetration rate among young people (71 percent) and the rest of the population (57 percent) was 14 percentage points."

What is more, "In all regions of the world, people aged between 15 and 24 are more connected than people who are older or younger than that. Universality, defined as more than 95 percent Internet use, has already been reached in this age group in high-income and upper-middle-income economies. The biggest gap in relative terms is observed in low-income economies, where 39 percent of young people use the Internet, compared with only 23 percent for the rest of the population."

With respect to mobile subscriptions, the report says almost three-quarters of the global population aged 10 and over now own a mobile phone. "Internet use is becoming as ubiquitous as mobile phones. Accordingly, the number of mobile-broadband subscriptions is rapidly approaching the level of mobile-cellular subscriptions, which is plateauing."

Despite the ubiquitousness of mobile phone use, "low levels of ICT skills hamper progress to universal and meaningful connectivity," the report importantly notes. "A low level of ICT skills is one of the main barriers to achieving universal and meaningful connectivity."

As for the affordability of ICT services, the report finds that global median price of mobile-broadband services dropped from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent of average gross national income (GNI) per capita. However, the report explains that "the lack of affordability continues to be a key barrier to Internet access particularly in low-income economies, even though this country group witnessed a nearly two-percentage-point drop in the income-adjusted price of mobile broadband services." Furthermore, "A wide gap remains between high-income economies and the rest of the world. Compared to median prices that are paid in high-income economies, the basket costs nearly 10 times as much in lower-middle-income economies and nearly 30 times as much as in low-income economies, after adjusting for differences in GNI per capita."

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I appreciate how ITU's annual Facts and Figures report offers an independent and rigorously researched snapshot of the state of digital connectivity worldwide. As Doreen Bogdan-Martin, who was elected as ITU's Secretary-General subsequently after the report's publication, wrote: The report "serves as a key element in global efforts to 'connect the world' and bring universal meaningful connectivity to everyone, everywhere. Accurate data are essential: to be sure our policies and projects are having a real impact on bridging the digital divide, we need to constantly track core connectivity indicators, and drill down into the data to reveal both unexpected sticking points, and surprising successes." She adds that "ITU data are relied upon, not just by the broader UN system, but by governments, the global technology sector, development financing institutions, and the many grassroots organizations working to promote digital inclusion within their communities."

What recommendations do you have for increasing digital inclusion and promoting online opportunities?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.