Singapore, Denmark and the US Are Predicted to Have the Best Business Environment From 2024–28

The Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) business environment index measures the attractiveness of the business environment in 82 countries and territories, examining 91 indicators spread across 11 different categories. According to the latest business environment index, "Singapore, Denmark and the US will be the three geographies with the best business environment over the next five years." What is more, as reflected in the chart below, "Several west European economies, alongside Canada, Hong Kong and New Zealand, make up the remaining top ten best places in the world to do business. These are all advanced economies and long-standing strong performers in our index, so tend to be safe bets for investments. However, both headline and per capita GDP growth rates are likely to be fairly stable and slow."

The EIU also explains, through the image below, "geographies that see the biggest improvements in score in our index in the next five years (2024-28) compared with the past five years (2019-23). These are not the same economies that will see the fastest real GDP growth in 2024-28—although Qatar and India will grow very strongly—rather, they are places where we expect the most significant policy improvements, infrastructure investment or growth in market opportunities." The UK-based organization adds that its "model suggests that their improvement in our business environment index may subsequently result in an uptick in per-head growth in real GDP, investment spending and FDI."

Regarding those countries already in the EIU's index that scored strongly, the report points out that "Qatar has implemented a US$220bn investment program over the past decade, mainly focused on infrastructure. Its business environment has benefited from the expansion of Hamad International Airport, the road network and tourism infrastructure." Furthermore, Lithuania has long been open to trade and investment, but a major tax reform will soon make it more attractive by extending corporate tax relief and shifting the tax burden away from labor. Greece sees the biggest improvement in the business environment in our index over this period. This reflects the impact of a pro-business government, led by the New Democracy party, now in its second term, that has undertaken reforms, cut taxes and boosted business confidence."

With respect to the world's most populous nation, the EIU says "India is the only single-country market that offers a potential scale comparable to that of China." The South Asia country's "youthful demographic profile promises both strong demand and good labor availability. Alongside solid economic fundamentals, digital infrastructure and favorable demographics, more policy support is being introduced to attract manufacturing investment."

Other geographies further down the EIU's ranking where they expect a strong improvement include Serbia, which "has seen a virtuous circle from its openness to FDI in the past, which has driven growth and attracted further investment, including in higher-value-added sectors. A recent strengthening of macroeconomic policy and institutions supports market stability."

Moreover, "Argentina's sharp improvement in score largely reflects the free-market reforms that we believe the administration of the president, Javier Milei, will introduce—in particular, policies to boost private enterprise and competition and attract foreign investment. In the Dominican Republic, the current Abinader administration, which we expect to be re-elected in May, will continue its business friendly policies. It is encouraging investment into the tourism sector (for example with port upgrades for cruise ships), and improving logistics infrastructure to become a regional transport and distribution hub.

Places with weak business environments but potential for improvement include Kenya, Angola, and Venezuela. As the EIU explains:

Kenya passed a Privatization Act in 2023, which will help to trim the state’s excessively large economic footprint while boosting the private sector. Angola, while close to the bottom of our rankings, is arguably a better place to do business than five years ago, with the Lourenço administration using its improved ties with the US to revamp key legislation, bringing the country's financial sector into line with international standards and reducing the tax burden on the non-oil sector. In contrast, Venezuela is the worst ranked in our index, and will remain so despite a slight improvement after its painful economic collapse.

As I have stated previously on this forum, Southeast Asia has one of the world's most attractive business environment. Among the ten members of the Association of South‑East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the EIU highlights Thailand as a market that "saw a notable improvement in our business environment index in 2021-22, followed by an acceleration in growth in real GDP per head in 2022-23." The report says Thailand was among the first movers in ASEAN "to give special incentives to invest in electric vehicles and green industries. At the same time, many infrastructure projects were being finished—notably the mass transit expansion in the capital, Bangkok—or under way, including as part of the country's Eastern Economic Corridor megadevelopment project." The report adds that "Thailand has benefited from—and encouraged, with preferential policies—the China+1 trend as investors seek to diversify away from China, often towards India and ASEAN."

Do you find this report helpful in determining which countries to invest in or avoid?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

How Geopolitical Tensions, New Technologies, and Environmental Threats Could Upset the Economic Outlook for 2024

Though the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects modest global growth in 2024, continued monetary tightening, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical conflict could weigh heavily on the global economy next year. In a report that explores how geopolitical tensions, the advent of new technologies and persistent environmental threats could upset the outlook in the coming year, the EIU explains that its "operational risk scenarios evaluate the events that could have a severe impact on its core economic and geopolitical forecasts, challenging the operations of businesses worldwide." For example, "In 2023 resilience among consumers and a gradual fall in inflation reassured uneasy investors and supported modest global growth." The EIU expects "stable, but unspectacular, global growth to continue into 2024 as economic uncertainty recedes and major central banks begin to lower policy rates in the second half of the year. The UK-based organization's report "explores how geopolitical tensions, the advent of new technologies and persistent environmental threats could upset the outlook for 2024."

Below are ten risk scenarios that could reshape the global economy in 2024:

1. Monetary policy tightening extends deep into 2024, leading to a global recession and financial volatility (moderate probability; high impact)
2. A green technology subsidy race becomes a global trade war (moderate probability; high impact)
3. Extreme weather events caused by climate change disrupt global supply chains (high probability; moderate impact)
4. Industrial action spreads, disrupting global productivity (high probability; moderate impact)
5. China moves to annex Taiwan, forcing a sudden global decoupling (low probability; very high impact)
6. A change in the US administration leads to abrupt foreign policy shifts, straining alliances (moderate probability; moderate impact)
7. Stimulus policy failures in China lead to increased state controls and diminished growth prospects (low probability; high impact)
8. The Israel-Hamas war escalates into a regional conflict (very low probability; high impact)
9. Artificial intelligence disrupts elections and undermines trust in political institutions (moderate probability; low impact)
10. The Ukraine-Russia war spirals into a global conflict (very low probability; very high impact)

While business leaders should be mindful of the ten risk scenarios, there are three that I am watching closely. As someone who follows the green technology sector, I have concerns about how a subsidy race could turn into a global trade war. As the EIU explains: "Western economies are rolling out generous incentives for businesses to invest in clean energy technologies by boosting domestic industrial capacity and enabling greater competition with China, which is the leader in the production of many green technologies. These initiatives also aim to accelerate countries’ transition towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, but most incentives include strict sourcing requirements for components (notably in the US). These requirements have already spurred tensions between the EU and the US, and will probably raise the cost of inputs and subsequently the green technologies themselves."

The report importantly adds that should "relations with China experience a severe downturn (including in relation to strengthening China-Russia ties or deepening concerns over China's state-driven industrial policy), Western economies could increase existing tariffs on Chinese imports or accelerate decisions on pending investigations into anti-dumping and state subsidy charges, further fueling price growth. China would retaliate, possibly by blocking exports of raw materials that are critical to the green transition agenda such as rare earths, making decarbonization efforts more expensive for developed markets. These costs would force economies to consider returning to carbon-based technologies, limit support from Western countries to fund emerging markets' energy transition and delay timelines for achieving net-zero emissions."

Regarding the spread of industrial action that will lead to the disruption of global productivity, the EIU says: "High global commodity prices, continued supply-chain disruptions, high food prices and continued currency weakness against the US dollar for some countries will continue to fuel discontent in 2024-25." What is more, "Wages have not risen as quickly as inflation in most countries, making it harder for poorer households to purchase basic staples. This could spark social unrest, expanding the small-scale protests and industrial action already seen in Europe, the US, South Korea and Argentina. In an extreme scenario, protests could push workers in major economies and who are employed by large manufacturers to co-ordinate large-scale strikes demanding salary increases that match inflation. Such movements, like those that have affected the automotive industry in the US and key services in the UK (healthcare, ports and railways), could paralyze entire industries or public services for an extended period and spill over to other sectors or countries, weighing on global growth."

As for artificial intelligence disrupting elections and undermining trust in political institutions, the EIU points out that "Global firms and governments have rapidly begun to test and integrate generative artificial intelligence (AI) into existing platforms and processes." Furthermore, the EIU believes "AI will augment (rather than replace) human capabilities, presenting an opportunity for firms to improve productivity. However, the widespread adoption of AI and its use in social media will raise the risk of a spread in disinformation campaigns via text, imagery, audio and video in the coming years. Regulation across different geographies is coming, but malicious actors will still look to implement wide-ranging programs aimed at fueling existing skepticism of some citizens towards governments." The report crucially notes that "This could potentially shift the result of major elections scheduled for 2024—including for the EU parliament, and in the US, the UK, India and Taiwan—and more broadly erode voters' trust in political systems."

The world is facing geopolitical tensions, the advent of new technologies, and persistent environmental threats that could upset the economic outlook for the coming year. Which of the global risk scenarios will you be watching?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Recommendations for Reinventing American Democracy for the 21st Century

There is much discussion among my peers about the fragility of American democracy. Some hold the view that American democracy is unraveling through shifting political, economic, and social forces. Others see the current challenges America's democracy is facing as an opportunity to refocus on the principals the country's founders endowed over 200 years ago. Efforts to refocus will require a redesign of American institutions so that they are simultaneously responsive and accountable. A report published by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences explores how to reinvent American democracy for the 21st century.

Segmented into six sections, the report presents 31 recommendations on how to reinvent American democracy in the 21st century:

STRATEGY 1: ACHIEVE EQUALITY OF VOICE AND REPRESENTATION

Recommendation 1.1

Substantially enlarge the House of Representatives through federal legislation to make it and the Electoral College more representative of the nation’s population.

Recommendation 1.2

Introduce ranked-choice voting in presidential, congressional, and state elections.

Recommendation 1.3

Amend or repeal and replace the 1967 law that mandates single-member districts for the House, so that states have the option to use multi-member districts on the condition that they adopt a non-winner-take all election model.

Recommendation 1.4

Support adoption, through state legislation, of independent citizen-redistricting commissions in all fifty states. Complete nationwide adoption, through federal legislation, that requires fair congressional districts to be determined by state-established independent citizen-redistricting commissions; allows these commissions to meet criteria with non-winner-take-all models; and provides federal funding for these state processes, with the goal of establishing national consistency in procedures.

Recommendation 1.5

Amend the Constitution to authorize the regulation of election contributions and spending to eliminate undue influence of money in our political system, and to protect the rights of all Americans to free speech, political participation, and meaningful representation in government.

Recommendation 1.6

Pass strong campaign-finance disclosure laws in all fifty states that require full transparency for campaign donations, including from 501(c)(4) organizations and LLCs.

Recommendation 1.7

Pass "clean election laws" for federal, state, and local elections through mechanisms such as public matching donation systems and democracy vouchers, which amplify the power of small donors.

Recommendation 1.8

Establish, through federal legislation, eighteen-year terms for Supreme Court justices with appointments staggered such that one nomination comes up during each term of Congress. At the end of their term, justices will transition to an appeals court or, if they choose, to senior status for the remainder of their life tenure, which would allow them to determine how much time they spend hearing cases on an appeals court.

STRATEGY 2: EMPOWER VOTERS

Recommendation 2.1

Give people more choices about where and when they vote, with state-level legislation in all states that supports the implementation of vote centers and early voting. During an emergency like COVID-19, officials must be prepared to act swiftly and adopt extraordinary measures to preserve ballot access and protect the fundamental right to vote.

Recommendation 2.2

Change federal election day to Veterans Day to honor the service of veterans and the sacrifices they have made in defense of our constitutional democracy, and to ensure that voting can occur on a day that many people have off from work. Align state election calendars with this new federal election day.

Recommendation 2.3

Establish, through state and federal legislation, same-day registration and universal automatic voter registration, with sufficient funding and training to ensure that all government agencies that have contact with citizens include such registration as part of their processes.

Recommendation 2.4

Establish, through state legislation, the preregistration of sixteen- and seventeen-year-olds and provide educational opportunities for them to practice voting as part of the preregistration process.

Recommendation 2.5

Establish, through congressional legislation, that voting in federal elections be a requirement of citizenship, just as jury service is in the states. All eligible voters would have to participate, in person or by mail, or submit a valid reason for nonparticipation. Eligible voters who do not do so would receive a citation and small fine. (Participation could, of course, include voting for "none of the above.")

Recommendation 2.6

Establish, through state legislatures and/or offices of secretaries of state, paid voter orientation for voters participating in their first federal election, analogous to a combination of jury orientation and jury pay. Most states use short videos produced by the state judicial system to provide jurors with a nonpolitical orientation to their duty; first-time voters should receive a similar orientation to their duty.

Recommendation 2.7

Restore federal and state voting rights to citizens with felony convictions immediately and automatically upon their release from prison, and ensure that those rights are also restored to those already living in the community.

STRATEGY 3: ENSURE THE RESPONSIVENESS OF GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS

Recommendation 3.1

Adopt formats, processes, and technologies that are designed to encourage widespread participation by residents in official public hearings and meetings at local and state levels.

Recommendation 3.2

Design structured and engaging mechanisms for every member of Congress to interact directly and regularly with a random sample of their constituents in an informed and substantive conversation about policy areas under consideration.

Recommendation 3.3

Promote experimentation with citizens' assemblies to enable the public to interact directly with Congress as an institution on issues of Congress's choosing.

Recommendation 3.4

Expand the breadth of participatory opportunities at municipal and state levels for citizens to shape decision-making, budgeting, and other policy-making processes.

STRATEGY 4: DRAMATICALLY EXPAND CIVIC BRIDGING CAPACITY

Recommendation 4.1

Establish a National Trust for Civic Infrastructure to scale up social, civic, and democratic infrastructure. Fund the Trust with a major nationwide investment campaign that bridges private enterprise and philanthropic seed funding. This might later be sustained through annual appropriations from Congress on the model of the National Endowment for Democracy.

Recommendation 4.2

Activate a range of funders to invest in the leadership capacity of the so-called civic one million: the catalytic leaders who drive civic renewal in communities around the country. Use this funding to encourage these leaders to support innovations in bridge-building and participatory constitutional democracy.

STRATEGY 5: BUILD CIVIC INFORMATION ARCHITECTURE THAT SUPPORTS COMMON PURPOSE

Recommendation 5.1

Form a high-level working group to articulate and measure social media's civic obligations and incorporate those defined metrics in the Democratic Engagement Project, described in Recommendation 5.5.

Recommendation 5.2

Through state and/or federal legislation, subsidize innovation to reinvent the public functions that social media have displaced: for instance, with a tax on digital advertising that could be deployed in a public media fund that would support experimental approaches to public social media platforms as well as local and regional investigative journalism.

Recommendation 5.3

To supplement experiments with public media platforms (Recommendation 5.2), establish a public-interest mandate for for-profit social media platforms. Analogous to zoning requirements, this mandate would require such for-profit digital platform companies to support the development of designated public-friendly digital spaces on their own platforms.

Recommendation 5.4

Through federal legislation and regulation, require of digital platform companies: interoperability (like railroad-track gauges), data portability, and data openness sufficient to equip researchers to measure and evaluate democratic engagement in digital contexts.

Recommendation 5.5

Establish and fund the Democratic Engagement Project: a new data source and clearinghouse for research that supports social and civic infrastructure. The Project would conduct a focused, large-scale, systematic, and longitudinal study of individual and organizational democratic engagement, including the full integration of measurement and the evaluation of democratic engagement in digital contexts.

STRATEGY 6: INSPIRE A CULTURE OF COMMITMENT TO AMERICAN CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY AND ONE ANOTHER

Recommendation 6.1

Establish a universal expectation of a year of national service and dramatically expand funding for service programs or fellowships that would offer young people paid service opportunities. Such opportunities should be made available not only in AmeriCorps or the military but also in local programs offered by municipal governments, local news outlets, and nonprofit organizations.

Recommendation 6.2

To coincide with the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, create a Telling Our Nation's Story initiative to engage communities throughout the country in direct, open-ended, and inclusive conversations about the complex and always evolving American story. Led by civil society organizations, these conversations will allow participants at all points along the political spectrum to explore both their feelings about and hopes for this country.

Recommendation 6.3

Launch a philanthropic initiative to support the growing civil society ecosystem of civic gatherings and rituals focused on the ethical, moral, and spiritual dimensions of our civic values.

Recommendation 6.4

Increase public and private funding for media campaigns and grassroots narratives about how to revitalize constitutional democracy and encourage a commitment to our constitutional democracy and one another.

Recommendation 6.5

Invest in civic educators and civic education for all ages and in all communities through curricula, ongoing program evaluations, professional development for teachers, and a federal award program that recognizes civic-learning achievements. These measures should encompass lifelong (K–12 and adult) civic-learning experiences with the full community in mind.

Among the recommendations listed above, I strongly support ranked-choice voting in presidential, congressional, and state elections (1.2), changing federal election day to Veterans Day (Nov. 11th) (2.2), and adopting formats, processes, and technologies that are designed to encourage widespread participation by residents in official public hearings and meetings at local and state levels (3.1). While I also support amending the Constitution so that Supreme Court justices serve a term limited to a pre-set number of years, twelve- or sixteen-year terms are more reasonable than eighteen-year terms. Lastly, although same-day voter registration will improve access for people to elect their government leaders (2.3), universal automatic voter registration makes me nervous as I have concerns about any government agency implementing a registration system without the explicit consent of the individual.

In a letter published in Our Common Purpose, David W. Oxtoby, president of American Academy of Arts and Sciences, writes: "Throughout our country's history, the American people have confronted moments of crisis with resilience and an openness to reinvention, enabling our nation to become a better version of itself." He adds that "The recommendations in this report touch all sectors of American life and offer a bold path that will require all of us to commit to reinventing aspects of our constitutional democracy." Despite the currently challenges facing our great nation, I remain optimistic that Americans will take advantage of the opportunity to create a better version of our great nation.

What are you thoughts?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

5G Will Represent 91% of Mobile Connections in North America by 2023, Up From 39% in 2022

"The US and Canada are among the global leaders in terms of 5G adoption, reflecting the ambitious rollout plans of operators and strong demand from consumers for new services," the GSMA says in its latest report on the state of North America's mobile economy. "However, following extensive 5G network buildout over the last few years, capex levels will begin to trend downwards as operators turn their attention to generating a return on investment." The UK-based organization, which represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, adds: "The focus over the next few years will be on improving 5G coverage in less densely populated areas while also ramping up investment to support the growing momentum behind use cases enabled by 5G standalone (SA) and 5G-Advanced."

The report's findings include:

The 5G monetization imperative grows

"As 5G adoption grows, the monetization imperative will escalate. GSMA Intelligence research shows that the mobile ARPU trend in the US and Canada improved in the 12 months after launching 5G. The technology is also having a positive impact on revenue growth for North American operators beyond mobile services, as highlighted by fixed wireless access (FWA) momentum in the region. Looking forward, the enterprise sector is expected to be the main growth driver for operators. 5G SA brings a host of new capabilities that will be crucial to monetizing 5G investments, including improved support for network slicing. There are also synergies between 5G SA and private wireless networks, opening up new opportunities for mobile operators."

Generative AI takes center stage

"Mobile operators have utilized AI for a while now to varying degrees. However, the emergence of generative AI has pushed the envelope on AI capabilities and thrust AI technology into boardroom conversations globally. With generative AI tools, operators can attempt to automate more complex customer service functions that require a better understanding of context, improved ability to follow a conversation and advanced synthesis of information. The technology can also be used to improve network operations and deliver personalized service plans. However, ethical concerns around the technology still need to be addressed. AI regulation will therefore continue to move up the policy agenda as governments develop frameworks for regulating the use of new AI tools."

eSIM momentum builds

"The last few years have been crucial for eSIM development and commercialization, highlighted by Apple’s launch of eSIM-only smartphones in September 2022 in the US and Canada. There has since been an acceleration in operator eSIM deployments and commercial launches. However, eSIM awareness among consumers remains limited. As the main contact points with end users, operators and smartphone manufacturers have a key role to play in accelerating consumer awareness and adoption. Additionally, eSIM technology has long been seen as a major enabler and accelerator of IoT deployments across multiple sectors. This has led North American operators to partner with a range of players across the IoT ecosystem to accelerate eSIM adoption in the region."

Infographic: GSMA

The shift towards circularity gains traction

"The concept of circularity has risen up the agenda for policymakers and industry players in light of growing concerns around the generation of e-waste and unsustainable levels of consumption of natural resources. Although the technical lifespan of a mobile device is now between four and seven years, the average use period of mobile devices is only around three years. Governments and industry players have a role to play in incentivizing consumers, such as by building new channels for suppliers to collect, refurbish and resell devices and implementing awareness campaigns on sustainability. Operators and other ecosystem players in North America are already taking a lead in this regard, with a number of initiatives to drive circularity in mobile phones and other digital devices."

Growing opportunities for operators as fintech demand surges

"GSMA Intelligence survey data shows that between 2020 and 2022, the share of 4G/5G smartphone users in the US using their devices for financial services on a daily basis grew by four percentage points on average across mobile banking, online shopping, paying bills and contactless payments. This reflects growing momentum behind digital financial services as the competition heats up in the fintech market. For example, Apple recently announced the launch of a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service, which should contribute to a boost in e-commerce transactions. It has also launched a high-yield savings account through a partnership with Goldman Sachs, which reportedly brought in $990 million in deposits over its first four days. By the end of the first week, around 240,000 accounts had reportedly been opened."

Policies for growth and innovation

"The success of 5G rollouts depends on operators' 5G spectrum holdings across low, mid- and high bands to deliver both speed and geographical coverage. Additional spectrum can boost the provision of cost-efficient investment and enhance network quality in North America, which can help 5G become a central pillar of the region’s economic development strategies."

Infographic: GSMA

GSMA points out that "5G connectivity is already proving to be a powerful driver of GDP growth, with 5G's contribution to GDP in North America expected to surpass $200 billion in 2030 (16% of the overall annual economic impact of mobile in the region)." What is more, "Beyond its contribution to GDP, the mobile ecosystem also supports 2.1 million jobs (directly and indirectly) and makes a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector, with $130 billion raised through taxation in 2022. This economic contribution underlines the importance of stakeholders taking the right steps to sustain the impact of mobile services on the digital economy, with spectrum availability a key driver of affordable 5G for all."

What do you thinking of the report's findings? Do you see the North American mobile sector more attractive for investment compared to other geographic markets?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Risk Scenarios That Could Reshape the Global Economy in 2023

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) produces an annual quantitative and qualitative assessment of economic, political and regulatory risks that help readers evaluate potential shifts in a country's operating environment. As this year's report explains, "In 2022 the global repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine shifted global concerns away from coronavirus-related health issues and towards growing political, security and macroeconomic risks." The UK-based organization expects "that ripple effects from the war in Ukraine, global monetary tightening and an economic slowdown in China will weigh on the economy in 2023, with global growth slowing to only 1.6%." The EIU explains that its "white paper explores some of the risks that could lead to even slower growth, or even, trigger a global recession."

Below are ten risk scenarios that could reshape the global economy in 2023:

1. Cold winter exacerbates Europe's energy crisis (high probability; very high impact)
2. Extreme weather adds to commodity price spikes, fueling global food insecurity (high probability; high impact)
3. Direct conflict erupts between China and Taiwan, forcing US to intervene (moderate probability; very high impact)
4. High global inflation fuels social unrest (very high probability; moderate impact)
5. New variant of coronavirus, or another infectious disease, sends global economy back into recession (moderate probability; very high impact)
6. Inter-state cyberwar cripples state infrastructure in major economies (moderate probability; very high impact)
7. Further deterioration in West-China ties forces full decoupling of global economy (moderate probability; high impact)
8. Aggressive monetary tightening leads to global recession (moderate probability; moderate impact)
9. China's zero-covid policy leads to severe recession (low probability; high impact)
10. Russia-Ukraine conflict turns into global war (very low probability; very high impact)

While I agree with the high placing of cold winter exacerbating Europe's energy crisis, I am more concerned with the risk of extreme weather adding to commodity price spikes which will result in exasperating global food insecurity. "Climate change models point to an increased frequency of extreme weather events," explains the EIU. "So far these have been sporadic and in different parts of the world, but they could start to happen more synchronously and for prolonged periods." Moreover, "Severe droughts and heatwaves in Europe, China, India and the US in 2022 are contributing to rising prices of some foodstuffs. In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine (two of the world’s largest agricultural exporters) has led to severe price spikes and risks creating global shortages of grains and fertilizers (which are crucial for harvests) in 2023." The report worryingly warns that "The world could face a prolonged period of crop shortages and skyrocketing prices, raising the risk of food insecurity (or even famine).

Just as high food prices was a contributing factor that a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s, global food prices are again high could lead to social unrest. As the report notes, "Persistent inflationary pressures, caused by supply-chain disruptions and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are pushing up global inflation, which is at its highest level since the 1990s. If inflation rises much higher than wage increases, making it hard for poorer households to purchase basic staples, it could spark social unrest." The report adds that "In an extreme scenario, protests could push workers in major economies and employed by large manufacturers to coordinate large-scale strikes demanding higher salaries that match inflation. Such movements, similar to those that have affected critical services in the UK (ports, postal services, barristers and railways), could paralyze entire industries and spill over to other sectors or countries, weighing on global growth.

Finally, my colleagues and I are closely watching the further deterioration in West-China ties that may result in the full decoupling of the global economy. "Western democracies, notably the US and the EU, are concerned about China's support to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine," the report explains. "In parallel, China is concerned about US-Taiwan relations and efforts by the US to convince other democracies to pressure it using restrictions on trade, technology and finance." Moreover, "The EU has also taken an increasingly confrontational stance towards China's human rights abuses in Xinjiang, unequal treatment of EU and Chinese firms, and its subsidy-led industrial model." The report adds that "In an extreme scenario, China could initiate military maneuvers in the South China Sea (most likely in Taiwan), exacerbating tensions and pushing the West to unite in imposing sweeping trade and investment restrictions on China. This would force some markets (and companies) to choose sides." China could, in retaliation, "block exports of raw materials and goods that are crucial to Western economies, such as rare earths. This would have disastrous economic effects and force companies to operate two supply chains while fearing operational disruptions."

Which risk scenarios do you think will affect your business? What strategies are you implementing to make your company resilient to those risks?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Evaluates Gaps in Early Warning Systems for Climate-Related Hazards in the US

"As climate-related weather events become a greater risk across the globe and in the United States," a report produced by the GSM Association (GSMA) explains that "innovative and inclusive early warning systems (EWS) are critical to mitigate these risks and strengthen preparedness for climate disasters." Moreover, "The frequency and impact of climate-related events have escalated in the US in recent years, negatively impacting communities and resulting in loss of life, property and livelihoods."

Funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, GSMA's report evaluates the gaps in EWS for climate-related hazards in the US, and identifies examples of mobile and digital interventions used at the community level in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that could help underserved and vulnerable groups become more resilient to climate-related disasters. The report also provides specific recommendations for closing identified gaps to strengthen EWS in the US.

The report's key findings include:

• Climate-related hazards are on the rise in the US
• Socially vulnerable groups are the most affected by climate-related risks and disasters
• Early warning systems at the community level are not as robust as national systems
• There are opportunities to improve how emergency warnings are issued and disseminated
• Innovative community-based EWS in low- and middle-income countries offer lessons for the US

The GSMA proposes the following recommendations to help develop inclusive climate resilience strategies:

Co-design EWS with communities to strengthen communication, dissemination and response capability. "The current approach in the US aims to do this, but is often poorly implemented. Bringing American community organizations and municipalities together to develop new and/or modified EWS delivery models for Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) message initiation, or transfer to another system, will help develop localized models and strengthen community trust."

Investigate opportunities to leverage multi-channel EWS communication to reach a wider group of users and improve users' responses to messages. "In the US, message recipients are more likely to act if they receive a warning multiple times from different platforms. Message solutions like CHANTER could be used in combination with existing systems to amplify messages and make them more relevant, resulting in more specific messages being delivered to recipients' phones. When local communities are stakeholders and involved in managing such solutions, messages sent through the community-based channel would most likely be considered trustworthy and, therefore, prioritized."

Strengthen multi-language EWS messaging. "Leverage low-cost systems to rebroadcast messages in multiple languages. Local governments may also use other systems to auto-translate messaging for minority languages in coordination with user representatives from these communities. There is also an opportunity to pilot AI-powered auto-translate systems, for example, talking books to reach users who are not literate."

Engage partners in educating customers about wireless emergency alert (WEA) and local opt-in alert and warning systems. "Local communities can partner with local wireless operators to provide information to consumers on the benefits of WEA and local opt-in systems. This could be implemented as a corporate social responsibility initiative, alongside civil society groups and county emergency offices, hosting targeted workshops and advocacy campaigns that highlight the importance of residents signing up for warning messages and gathering feedback from residents on their preferences and potential challenges related to receiving disaster warnings."

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, there were 142 weather- and climate-related disasters costing at least $1 billion each have been recorded in the US in the past 10 years. The most common and costly events were hurricanes, cyclones, and wildfires. The estimated cumulative cost of these events between 2012 and 2022 was more than $1 trillion.

The GSMA importantly notes that "Planning for climate change requires that government institutions and local communities adapt and prepare systems and strategies to mitigate the risks of climate-related disasters and build their resilience and capacity to respond." This report presents some valuable insights into how to create innovative and inclusive climate resilience strategies by closing gaps to strengthen early warning systems in the US.

Do you agree with the report's recommendations?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Is the US Economy Headed for a Recession?

"Is the US economy headed for a recession?" is a question many people, myself included, are asking these days. In a whitepaper titled with the same question, The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) says "Some economic warning signs started to flash in early 2022, raising concerns that the US could be headed for a recession" Furthermore, "The US economy was one of the first to rebound from the negative effects of the covid-19 pandemic, with strong residential investment and consumer spending boosting real GDP by 5.7% in 2021. However, positive economic momentum has started to ebb in recent months. Real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2022 as the war in Ukraine sent energy prices soaring and China's zero-covid policy exacerbated existing supply-chain issues."

What is more, The EIU explains "that economic growth in the US will slow sharply over the course of 2022 and 2023, owing to stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates and stalling growth elsewhere." The UK-based company expects "consumer demand to be resilient enough to avoid an outright recession, thanks in part to the tight labor market and strong household balance sheets. However, this does not mean that a recession is completely off the cards."

The whitepaper explores the three main downside risks to the US economic outlook, and identifies potential triggers for a recession:

Risk #1: Second wave of inflation

Risk scenario: Unforeseen factors prompt another spike in inflation—from an already high level—in late 2022 or early 2023, causing household spending to contract.

Possible triggers: Double-digit increases in the consumer price index for two consecutive months (or more) in the second half of 2022.

Risk #2: Overly-aggressive Fed

Risk scenario: The Fed overestimates the strength of consumer spending in the summer and raises interest rates more aggressively than we currently expect, causing consumer spending to crater in the autumn.

Possible triggers: Combined interest-rate hikes of 150 basis points or more in June and July, coupled with a further decline in consumer confidence measures.

Risk #3: Asset price collapse

Risk scenario: A combination of rising interest rates, high inflation, concerns over the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, and worsening business and consumer sentiment spook US markets and cause asset prices to crash.

Possible triggers: The US bear market deepens. US stock market indices fall by 40% or more from their recent peak by July as a result of one or more of the factors above, without changes in monetary policy to compensate.

Additional key points from the report include:

• Price pressures to wane in the second half of the year as energy prices stabilize and supply chain constraints begin to ease. However, if inflation were to jump later in 2022, after rising interest rates and falling real wages, an outright contraction in consumer spending could occur.
• The Fed will raise interest rates by a total of 300 basis points. A surge in consumer spending in the summer, coupled with still-high inflation, could potentially push the Fed to tighten more aggressively than The EIU currently expects, which would likely be too much for households to bear.
• US stock prices are expected to cool in the second half of 2022. The Fed will maintain a gradual approach to tightening, helping to prevent a severe collapse in asset prices that would exacerbate the drop in consumer spending.

While it is difficult to predict the future direction of the US economy, The EIU's paper provides valuable information on which risks to monitor. What efforts are you taking to mitigate the impact of a possible recession?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

China to Benefit From Declining US Interest in the MENA Region

Those who follow geopolitical events in the Middle East are speculating how United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact matters in the region. A paper published by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) focuses on this topic as it "examines which countries in the region could be next to be destabilized by the external competition to result from the US withdrawal. The paper "also outlines which countries could benefit economically from a growing relationship with China" and "aims to help investors in the region understand how geopolitical risk, and international tensions in particular, have shifted with the US’s exit."

Helping "investors to better understand relative risk across the region," below are the paper's key findings:

• The speed with which the Taliban retook Afghanistan emphasizes the risks for traditional US allies of over-reliance on US security guarantees, while also highlighting opportunities for other Global powers to expand in the region.
• China's neutrality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and economic power make it the best-positioned external power to benefit from long-term US withdrawal from the region.
• Traditional US allies—mainly the UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt—will undergo some modest diversification of their relations with other major powers and try to resolve some regional conflicts without the US.
• However, those same US allies will also compete for influence with two other blocs with different ideological visions for the region—one led by Iran and the other comprising countries backing regional Islamist groups.
• This will lead to shifting diplomacy between blocs, as well as the emergence of new pockets of instability—with Lebanon currently most at risk.

According to The EIU, "The criticism that the US president, Joe Biden, has come under for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan suggests that further sudden US troop withdrawals from conflict zones are unlikely for now. Remnants of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria will probably mean that some US presence, albeit a reduced one, stays there in the medium term." The paper further asserts that "the US will continue to maintain its security alliances, ensuring it remains the main foreign security presence in the region. However, it is clear that a key part of US foreign policy is to avoid being drawn into lengthy and costly conflicts in the region—preventing Iranian nuclear proliferation perhaps being the only exception. As a result, Turkey, Russia and China have more scope to become regional powerbrokers."

With respect to China benefiting from long-term US withdrawal from the region, the paper explains that "China has little interest in competing with the US for regional security dominance. But there are economic incentives for China to expand its presence—the Middle East provides key trade routes from Asia to Europe and East Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and is the source of much of China's oil supply."

The EIU importantly adds:

Although US influence remains paramount for Israel, which may limit Chinese opportunities there, most other countries will deepen their economic ties with China. Provided Iran secures US sanctions relief, Chinese infrastructure investment in Iran is likely to rise sharply in return for cut-price oil. At the same, the Gulf economies will build closer relations with China, while still balancing their alliances with the US, as a source of much-desired technology-sharing and external financing. Meanwhile, China's growing influence will also put it in a prime position to secure reconstruction contracts in conflict zones like Libya and Syria. In the longer term, as its economic interests grow, geopolitical neutrality will become more difficult. But in the short to medium term, China's interests in the Middle East will remain largely economic.

Lastly, the paper includes The EIU's MENA Risk Tracker Scores for Political Stability and Security Risk (see images below) where Yemen and Qatar are ranked most and least risky, respectively, for both political stability and security risk.

How do you think the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact matters in the MENA region? 

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Says North America's Mobile Sector Is Showing Climate Leadership in Helping Achieve UN's Climate-Related Sustainable Development Goals

According to its latest report on the state of the mobile economy in North America, GSMA Intelligence says that "[b]y the end of 2020, 327 million people in North America subscribed to mobile services, representing 83% of the region's population. This places North America among the world's most developed mobile markets. However, increasing market saturation also means that subscriber growth is slowing, a scenario that is also occurring in other advanced markets around the world."

GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA, a UK-based organization that represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, further asserts: "By the end of 2025, 5G will account for almost two thirds of total mobile connections, which is equivalent to nearly 270 million connections. 5G will also account for 98% of mobile capex over the next five years as operators step up deployments of mid-band spectrum."

Operators in the region are looking to bring new suppliers and technologies into the network. "The GSMA Intelligence Operators in Focus survey indicates that expanding 5G coverage and open RAN deployments are the top RAN priorities in North America, while virtualization investments, security and edge computing are crucial for the core network," the report explains.

With respect to policies enabling digital advancement, the report suggests the "speed, reach and quality of 5G services depends on governments and regulators supporting timely access to the right amount and type of affordable spectrum, under the right conditions. Policy also has a role to play in the shift towards open and virtualized networks, by creating an enabling environment that will support the deployment of new RAN infrastructure."

Other key findings include:

• Mobile operators in North America will invest $300 billion in their networks between 2020 and 2025, of which 98% will be dedicated to 5G.
• 5G coverage and open RAN top RAN priorities, while virtualization investments and security are critical for the core network.
• Despite growing confidence in open and virtualized RAN, there is recognition that accelerated measures are needed to ensure equipment interoperability, security, reliability, and sufficient systems integration capabilities and skills.
• As indicated in the chart below, the urgency to deploy IoT projects is stronger in the U.S. than in other countries, with around two in five companies planning to deploy IoT within a year, and one in five targeting deployments within two years. "The pandemic has increased the urgency of enterprise digitization among many firms as they look to boost productivity and efficiency, which will escalate adoption of IoT, AI and 5G, among other technologies."
• The UN's Race to Zero campaign declared that the mobile industry made a critical 'breakthrough' in early 2021, as more than a third of operators by revenue had committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.

Regarding the mobile sector's efforts to help achieve the UN's climate-related sustainable development goals (SDGs), GSMA Intelligence says "North American operators are making strong progress on SDG 13: Climate Action, with mobile at the forefront of efforts to tackle climate change." Furthermore, "at the end of 2020, 80% of operators by revenue disclosed their climate impacts, while almost two thirds of operators by revenue had set science-based targets to cut their carbon emissions rapidly over the next decade. In North America, several operators have set a science-based target of 1.5°C, which is in line with an ICT sectoral target-setting approach recently developed through a collaboration between the Global Enabling Sustainability Initiative (GeSI), the GSMA, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi). These targets support the Paris Agreement’s central aim of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change."

Lastly, "Switching to renewable energy will play an essential role in the mobile industry reaching net-zero carbon emissions. Most emissions within the direct control of operators are from electricity and diesel consumption by power networks."

In addition to switching to renewable energy, how can North America's mobile sector help achieve climate-related SDGs including including SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities and SDG 15: Life On Land?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Recommendations on What Private Investors Should Look for and What Governments Should Do to Attract Investment in 5G

In reading the previous post, which is about a report that looks into how mobile and digital technology, including IoT, LTE and 5G, can support industry decarbonization, a client of my consultancy, Global Tactics, sent me an email asking whether or not countries are ready for 5G. While people globally have been touting the benefits of 5G for the past few years, his observation as a chief executive of a multinational IT services and hardware company is that some countries are more ready than others. I appreciate the question as I recently read The Economist Intelligence Unit's (The EIU) report entitled The 5G Readiness Guide: Deployment strategies, opportunities and challenges across the globe.

In providing background on the report, The EIU says it "collected data and information on the 5G environment in the top 60 telecoms markets worldwide, in order to score them on six key metrics: the business environment, spectrum availability, the current level of 5G deployment, 5G network speed, progress on industry trials of 5G and the robustness of 5G policy." The paper also contains a snapshot of The EIU's scores for each region.

The EIU importantly explains that its "assessment is intended to help companies planning to invest in the 5G ecosystem to understand where each country stands in the 5G race, as well as its future potential. It also allows policymakers to benchmark their 5G regulations and policies against those of other countries, and make improvements that could attract more investment into the sector."

Below are the reports key findings:

• An early start in 5G preparation, along with better management of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in 2020, has helped many Asian countries to free up spectrum in the higher bands in order to forge ahead on 5G rollouts.
• Gulf countries are also among the most 5G-ready globally and offer significant market opportunities for providers of next-generation technologies.
• Despite lagging in spectrum auctions, Western European countries are at the forefront of testing and rolling out 5G-based industrial applications.
• Inadequate spectrum policy and a lack of regulatory coordination have held back 5G development in the US, but progress is being made under the Biden administration.
• Most countries in Africa and Latin America are likely to remain focused on expanding 4G and fiber broadband in the medium term, given a lack of funding and the low capacity to monetize 5G.
• A 5G-specific policy that covers auctions, deployment targets and trials, coupled with government support in the form of tax incentives or low-cost loans, is the best way to support faster rollouts.
• The US-China dispute over Huawei and other Chinese telecoms equipment manufacturers poses the biggest risk to 5G rollout across all regions, second only to disruption caused by Covid-19.

The EIU also presents the following recommendations bifurcated by what private investors should look for and what governments should do to attract investment.

What private investors should look for:

• Countries with a national 5G policy that covers auctions, deployments and industrial trials.
• Governments that enable collaboration between operators, vendors and industry players.
• Countries with a high mobile-service penetration rate and a high average revenue per user, where 5G smartphone shipments are on the rise.
• Industrial economies where businesses are keen to adopt 5G technology.

What governments should do to attract investment:

• Ensure availability of contiguous blocks of spectrum and equitable distribution to all operators.
• Consult industry players on spectrum base-price prior to auction, in order to avoid delays.
• Offer single-window clearance for telecommunications licenses and a medium-term national 5G policy.
• Offer incentives to encourage infrastructure and spectrum-sharing among operators that can reduce investment costs.
• Partner with vendors and the industry to facilitate industrial trials.
• Make 5G spectrum directly available to enterprise users, such as manufacturers, who want to deploy a private 5G network.
• Explore opportunities for public-private partnerships (PPPs).

The EIU correctly notes that while the global rollout of 5G has been affected by the pandemic, "The coronavirus has, nevertheless, accelerated digitalization and opened up new opportunities for telecoms operators. Fast, reliable connections have become vital to businesses, consumers and governments as they try to cope with this global crisis."

The reports adds that "For companies, the pandemic has underlined the benefits of deploying online offerings, automation and developing the Internet of Things (IoT) to manage supply chains. For consumers, it has increased demand for online goods and services. And, for governments, it has highlighted the importance of deploying online services, including healthcare, as well as the potential benefits of advanced data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics."

I support The EIU's assertion that "5G will be the launchpad for countless new applications, from self-driving cars and smart cities to augmented reality (AR)." What is more, "5G networks will offer benefits in the form of hyperfast connections, improved reliability, high capacity and low latency (meaning faster response times for requests). For telecoms operators, the upgrade represents an opportunity to move beyond communication services to offer hi-tech solutions to businesses. Businesses can use these technologies to transform their operations and optimize efficiency, while governments can create a robust 5G infrastructure to attract investment, create jobs and drive economic growth."

The report adds that while the "benefits of 5G are significant ... so is the investment necessary for its rollout." Moreover, "As operators and governments decide which markets will offer the best returns on 5G, there are several factors to consider. Strong and affordable infrastructure (with the right spectrum and good coverage of base stations) will be the foundation, but operators will also need to find the right 5G products and service applications to sell. Finally, the business environment will need to support significant research and development (R&D), so that 5G capabilities are developed and used in the most efficient way." As reflected in the map above, "The weighting of these factors differs markedly by region."

Do you agree with The EIU's recommendations on what private investors should look for and what governments should do to attract investment? If 5G is deployed in industrialized countries at a faster rate than emerging markets, how can governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector prevent a digital divide forming which will result in a gulf between those who have access to the internet and those who do not?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Global Economic Growth in 2017 is as Good as it Gets

On July 27, 2017, The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) held a webinar, "The world economy in the age of Trump," which focused on the global outlook for 2017-18. Presented under the title of "Good Economics, Bad Politics: The Global Outlook for 2017-18" by The EIU's John Ferguson, Director of Global Forecasting, and Mike Jakeman, Global Economist, the webinar focuses on the United States outlook along with the main regional forecasts that present the most significant risks to the global economy.

Mr. Jakeman begins by noting global growth will accelerate in 2017 and the world's economy is looking at its healthiest in years. In other words, the global economy is seeing its best performance since before the 2007-08 financial crisis. For example, the U.S. is experiencing close to full employment as gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise to 2% in 2017.

In addition, the eurozone, the monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender, is growing steadily.

Many emerging markets will be stronger in 2017, Mr. Jakeman said. With 6.8% economic growth in China, 2017 is proving to be a good year for the world's second largest economy. Brazil and Russia are also seeing economic growth this year with both countries no longer experiencing an economic recession.

However, risks, notably political, exist that may stymie the resent global economic upswing. Mr. Jakeman notes that U.S. President Donald Trump's impulsive behavior to weaken domestic institutions, which is threatening American democracy, and his disrespect for old alliances and prioritizing commerce over diplomacy could create headwinds for the global economy.

In addition, the webinar claims "thuggish authoritative leaders" such as Russia's Vladimir Putin (overt anti-Westernism, tight controls ahead of Russia's 2018 elections, and meddling of US election), Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (shift to executive presidency that will keep him in power until 2029), and the Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte (7,000 dead in war on drugs, dissenting voices marginalized, and a state of emergency), are invoking policy or implementing actions that may derail positive global economic growth.

Turning his attention specifically to the U.S., Mr. Jakeman said there are certain priorities set before Congress. Tax cuts will take time, but deregulation is happening now. Healthcare has been a mess for decades and will probably remain so, according to the webinar. As for tax reform, personal and tax cuts are coming rather than comprehensive reform of the United State Internal Revenue Code.

Mr. Jakeman then explained that "Trumpism will not transform the economy. Fiscal surge could help temporarily, but growth of 4% will be out of reach." He also noted how productivity growth has halved in the U.S. from 2005-2015 compared to the period of 1995-2005. Moreover, a slower labor force growth will prevent the Trump administration of reaching its 2016 campaign promise of achieving 4% GDP growth. Mr. Jakeman notes tax cuts for the rich leads to saving, not spending (wealthy have lowest marginal propensity to spend) and any rapid growth of the U.S. economy will be inflationary, which the Federal Reserve would lift rates in response to curtail such rapid growth.

Disappointingly, The EIU webinar projects the U.S. economy will experience a recession in 2019. "Only two quarters of contraction, but enough to bring growth down to 1%."

Focusing on Europe, Mr. Ferguson said economic recovery is taking hold in the eurozone. "Tentative signs of recovery are building. Unemployment is falling, euro is rising, and growth revised up to 1.9% in 2017." However, Europe is "never far from a crisis." Brexit negotiations, Grexit, Italian debt, and the election of populist candidates may adversely impact Europe's economic growth in the next few years.

Regarding the Middle Kingdom, China's politics will supersede economic reform in 2017 as a result of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to be held later this year in Beijing. According to Mr. Ferguson, China's rise of GDP of recent time has been fueled by debt. For example, China's private non-financial sector credit as a percentage of GDP is at an alarming level of 200%, which is proof that the country's debt dynamics are unsustainable. As a result of "a policy-induced managed slowdown" by the Chinese government, The EIU projects a continuing deceleration of China's economy with GDP falling from 6.8% this year to 4.6% in 2018.

"In summary, 2017 is as good as it gets," Mr. Ferguson said. "First China and then the U.S. will exert downward pressure on the global economy." Emerging countries like India, Iran and Russia (despite sanctions imposed on Russia by Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, and the U.S.) will continue to see economic growth, while Qatar will experience economic decline given the political crisis the country is facing from its Middle East neighbors.

Do you agree with the information presented in this webinar? How will your business be affected if the U.S. experiences an economic recession in 2019 or China sees a deceleration of economic growth in the next couple of years?

Similar to investing in public equities of buying on the low, businesses should consider expanding to new markets that are experiencing an economic recession or deceleration. Doing so will provide an ample opportunity for taking advantage of the rewards that will materialize when the economy returns to growth.

Aaron Rose is an advisor to talented entrepreneurs and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.