China to Benefit From Declining US Interest in the MENA Region

Those who follow geopolitical events in the Middle East are speculating how United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact matters in the region. A paper published by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) focuses on this topic as it "examines which countries in the region could be next to be destabilized by the external competition to result from the US withdrawal. The paper "also outlines which countries could benefit economically from a growing relationship with China" and "aims to help investors in the region understand how geopolitical risk, and international tensions in particular, have shifted with the US’s exit."

Helping "investors to better understand relative risk across the region," below are the paper's key findings:

• The speed with which the Taliban retook Afghanistan emphasizes the risks for traditional US allies of over-reliance on US security guarantees, while also highlighting opportunities for other Global powers to expand in the region.
• China's neutrality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and economic power make it the best-positioned external power to benefit from long-term US withdrawal from the region.
• Traditional US allies—mainly the UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt—will undergo some modest diversification of their relations with other major powers and try to resolve some regional conflicts without the US.
• However, those same US allies will also compete for influence with two other blocs with different ideological visions for the region—one led by Iran and the other comprising countries backing regional Islamist groups.
• This will lead to shifting diplomacy between blocs, as well as the emergence of new pockets of instability—with Lebanon currently most at risk.

According to The EIU, "The criticism that the US president, Joe Biden, has come under for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan suggests that further sudden US troop withdrawals from conflict zones are unlikely for now. Remnants of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria will probably mean that some US presence, albeit a reduced one, stays there in the medium term." The paper further asserts that "the US will continue to maintain its security alliances, ensuring it remains the main foreign security presence in the region. However, it is clear that a key part of US foreign policy is to avoid being drawn into lengthy and costly conflicts in the region—preventing Iranian nuclear proliferation perhaps being the only exception. As a result, Turkey, Russia and China have more scope to become regional powerbrokers."

With respect to China benefiting from long-term US withdrawal from the region, the paper explains that "China has little interest in competing with the US for regional security dominance. But there are economic incentives for China to expand its presence—the Middle East provides key trade routes from Asia to Europe and East Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and is the source of much of China's oil supply."

The EIU importantly adds:

Although US influence remains paramount for Israel, which may limit Chinese opportunities there, most other countries will deepen their economic ties with China. Provided Iran secures US sanctions relief, Chinese infrastructure investment in Iran is likely to rise sharply in return for cut-price oil. At the same, the Gulf economies will build closer relations with China, while still balancing their alliances with the US, as a source of much-desired technology-sharing and external financing. Meanwhile, China's growing influence will also put it in a prime position to secure reconstruction contracts in conflict zones like Libya and Syria. In the longer term, as its economic interests grow, geopolitical neutrality will become more difficult. But in the short to medium term, China's interests in the Middle East will remain largely economic.

Lastly, the paper includes The EIU's MENA Risk Tracker Scores for Political Stability and Security Risk (see images below) where Yemen and Qatar are ranked most and least risky, respectively, for both political stability and security risk.

How do you think the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact matters in the MENA region? 

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

14th Annual STAR-TIDES Capabilities Demonstration Focused on Converging Approaches to Sustainable Resilience

As noted in a posted entitled "Cheap and Effective Solutions for Humanitarian Emergencies," I had the opportunity to attend the second annual STAR-TIDES demonstration in 2008 at the Pentagon just outside of Washington DC. In outlining the program's background, the STAR-TIDES website says it "is a global knowledge-sharing network that focuses on building sustainable resilience, promoting human security (freedom from want and freedom from fear), and creating life-changing social and economic activities. These roles have evolved from original support by the U.S. Defense Department's TIDES (Transformative Innovation for Development and Emergency Support) program to four defense-related mission areas: (A) Building Partner Capacity, (B) Humanitarian Assistance and Foreign Disaster Relief, (C) Defense Support of Civil Authorities, and (D) Stability and Peace Keeping Operations."

In 2019 George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. established the Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities (C-RASC), a transdisciplinary research center that addresses critical real-world problems through integrated approaches that build resilience. The C-RASC, which is led by Dr. Kathy Laskey, now oversees the global STAR-TIDES knowledge-sharing network. Dr. Linton Wells II, who founded the TIDES program, remains involved with STAR-TIDES as the C-RASC's Executive Advisor.

The knowledge in the STAR-TIDES network is organized into six platforms (technology areas): (1) Energy, Energy Storage; (2) Shelter, Heating/Cooling and Lighting; (3) Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH); (4) Agriculture and Food Security; (5) Information and Communications Technology (ICT); and (6) Health, Nutrition and Integrated Cooking.

Image: STAR-TIDES

The six platforms are supported by the “keys to success” shown below:

• Narrative (and Story Telling) are essential parts of the "Listening" and "Learning" phases of a project, both to understand community needs in their cultural context and to translate technical analyses into terms that support their engagement. Systems Thinking is needed to link the various platforms together in ways that support the community's needs, and then narrative comes back into play to convey the technical analysis back to the community in ways that are consistent with their needs, cultures, and resources.
• Global Knowledge Sharing is facilitated by the STAR-TIDES network.
• All projects need Resource-Raising Strategies.
• Finance, Transport, and Logistics provide the glue to stand-up and execute real world efforts, and is a core part of "Lasting."
• Education also is a key part of bi-directional learning, and developing modes that can be extended to other circumstances
• Digital Enabling Technologies include geospatial information systems (GIS), identity management, distributed ledger technology (like blockchain) for accountability and transparency, climate science, big data analytics, etc.

I have enjoyed watching the STAR-TIDES program develop over the past several years and seeing its positive impact on distressed communities worldwide. As an e-newsletter produced by Dr. Wells dated Sept. 3rd, 2020 explains:

Over the years STAR-TIDES has made good use of focused teams on several occasions. For example, in late 2012/early 2013 team members helped a medical clinic that had been damaged by fire in Old Fangak, South Sudan. In 2015 nearly 80 members responded to a request to support refugee and IDP (internally displaced persons) camps in Iraq. In 2018 others supported George Mason graduate students in analyzing alternative shelters for use in Appalachia. Currently we have nearly 30 members who have signed up to support various aspects of rural broadband activities, from Native American communities, to dispersed towns in New England, to helping students return to classes in North Carolina. Going forward, I expect there will be many more opportunities, from geographic areas such as Puerto Rico, to STAR-TIDES core technology areas, to projects such as precision agriculture. As always, the teams will support those already working on the ground through our basic premise of Listening (to what they're trying to tell us), Learning (in both directions), and Lasting (to build local capacity).

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the 14th annual STAR-TIDES capabilities demonstration was held virtually from Oct. 20-22, 2020 under the title of "Converging Approaches to Sustainable Resilience." The STAR-TIDES e-newsletter dated Dec. 3rd, 2020 provided the following summary of the event:

22 separate events and 10 parallel breakout tracks focused on diverse areas including technology platforms (energy, shelter, water, etc.) plus key enablers such as narrative & storytelling, systems thinking, ethics, and Defense logistics. There were two sessions on "Puerto Rico Way Ahead." A career track offered students chances to interact with professionals for job search advice, as well as practitioners from areas such as geospatial information, emergency management, global health, development, and sustainable resilience. The conference featured 25 speakers and approximately 70 panelists, including several national and international figures. During his keynote address, Thomas L. Friedman, the distinguished author and New York Times Pulitzer-prize-winning columnist, discussed the fast, fused, deep, and open forces that increasingly affect our lives. Lt. Gen Michael Plehn, USAF, Military Deputy Commander of the U.S. Southern Command, and Claire Melamed, PhD, CEO of the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data, presented keynotes on October 21st.

Several participants showed how they applied their capabilities in real-world situations. These included perspectives on Navy operational energy, low-cost shelters, power grid cost reduction, and supply chain risk management for open source software, as well as a compelling example of how STAR-TIDES network members helped rebuild a medical clinic in South Sudan.

The sessions generated over 26 hours of content with more than 55 videos that may be viewed via the STAR-TIDES' YouTube page. Moderated by Dr. Wells, Mr. Friedman provided his insights on a variety of topics including U.S.-China relations, the emergence of black/green governments as the left/right binary approach of politics wane, education provided by the private sector including a company's role as an innovator and educator, and scaling community-based approaches.

Dave Warner, a medical neuroscientist with a MD/PhD researching new methods of physiologically based human-computer interaction to identify methods and techniques that optimize information flow between humans and computers, provided great remarks about information and communications technologies (ICTs).

And during the "Sustaining Cross-Cutting Solutions Across Silos" session, Bob Gourley, co-founder and chief technology officer of OODA LLC, moderated a discussion on sustainable resilience featuring the following panelists: Declan Kirrane, founder and managing director of ISC, Clare Lockhart, Director of the Institute for State Effectiveness, and Mike Tanji, Global Marketing Officer and Chief of Staff at the Global Cyber Alliance. For the purposes of this session, Mr. Gourley said resilience is defined "as an entity's capacity to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses, and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience."

The STAR-TIDES team announced that the next demonstration is tentatively planned as a mixed physical and virtual event on Oct. 19th and 20th, 2021. The Pentagon Center Court event will immediately follow on Oct. 21st and 22nd.

The Dec. 3rd newsletter further notes: "A new initiative for 2021 will be a series of interactive online events throughout the year. For example, a session might be woven around a case study. STAR-TIDES always has been a community of doers, so this would give people with real-world expertise a chance to talk about what they'd have done differently, or how they might approach such a situation in the future with current or emerging capabilities, plus what persistent capacity gaps and blocks remain to be resolved, and why. We'll provide more info as the schedule solidifies and welcome your suggestions and inputs."

The newsletter concludes by saying "STAR-TIDES has always been about our world-wide network partners and the contributions they are making to uplift individuals and societies, not only to provide basic amenities but also to increase standards of living and build sustainable resilience. If you have anything you think might be of interest or use to the network, please share it via email star.tides.net@gmail.com."

The following words from my 2008 post remain relevant 12 years later: "For any sustainable social and economic development strategy to have a chance of succeeding, it must have the collaboration of the private sector, civil society, and government stakeholders. With adequate financial and logistical support, STAR-TIDES could make a difference to people worldwide facing the challenges of surviving a one-time natural disaster or the daily constraints of poverty." Impressively, the STAR-TIDES network has proven its success in making a positive impact on the lives of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide.

What effective solutions do you propose for addressing humanitarian emergencies or post-war reconstruction?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

eRegistrations Platform for Registering New Businesses Will Help Nations Build a Formal Private Sector

The previous post on this blog focused on how entrepreneurs in developing countries are able to use their mobile device to register their new business using eRegistrations. A document prepared by the UN Conference on Trade Development (UNCTAD) explains that "eRegistrations is an eGovernment system, designed to computerize simple or complex administrative procedures. It can be easily adapted and configured to any administrative process and may apply to procedures such as company registration, construction permits, foreign trade procedures or the transfer of a property title."

Developed by UNCTAD's Division on Investment and Enterprise in Geneva, Switzerland, the document notes that "eRegistrations is suited both to operations involving only one administration (such as registering at the business registry) and to simultaneous operations at multiple administrations (such as registering a company at the tax office, with the municipal council, with social security, at the labor department and at the business registry). It acts as a single electronic window." Importantly, the system "can be installed at the municipal, national or supra-national levels."

For government agencies utilizing eRegistrations, minimum technical infrastructure is required: "Administrations willing to offer their services through the system are not required to have computerized processes. The only requirement is to have computers and an internet connection."

Moreover, "A law on electronic signatures is not mandatory either. eRegistrations was conceived to make use of electronic signatures in countries where it is regulated. In others, the system proposes a secured technique to certify digital documents issued by the administrations."

With respect to database and application hosting, the document says that the "local counterpart has a choice between hosting the database and the application on a local server or on a distant cloud server. Cloud servers are latest generation and high-speed, with expandable storage space, automatic back-up, secured (https), large band-width internet connection and 24 hour service. Similar specifications are recommended for local servers."

And regarding maintenance of the platform, "eRegistrations comes with a 'bug-free' warranty, any bug in the original version is repaired within 48 working hours."

The document points out that "Source codes, in java script language, as well as the MongoDB database are made freely available to the municipal, national or supra-national entity that administers the project. A complete technical documentation is also provided, so that local computer experts can easily make changes to the system, e.g. modify the forms or the list of requirements, or incorporate new administrative procedures."

A separate publication entitled "How UNCTAD's e-government platform helps countries stay open for business during COVID-19," points out how "global pandemic countries are using UNCTAD's e-government platform to continue providing essential services and new COVID-19 fiscal rescue measures to businesses though online single windows while offices are closed."

UNCTAD's online platform is directly supporting goal number #8 (promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all) and #16 (promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels) of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). And eRegistrations indirectly supports SDG #1 (end poverty in all its forms everywhere) and #17 (strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development).

Lastly, an article published on Dec. 7th, 2020 explains how "Over 25,000 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Cameroon have joined the formal sector by registering their operations through UNCTAD's eRegistrations online platform launched in the country in 2016.

"The platform has allowed residents of Douala, Yaoundé, Garoua and surrounding regions to conveniently register businesses and create jobs even amid the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Funded by the European Union, the platform is marketed by the national SME promotion agency (APME) as mybusiness.cm, via its network of business creation centers (CFCEs)."

The article further says "Cameroonian SMEs mostly operate in the informal sector, limiting interactions with public authorities. By formalizing their operations, the SMEs and their employees may have access to loans, insurance and legal protection, and contribute taxes and social security."

Importantly, "The use of the platform has also led to the standardization of operations in the CFCEs. The automation of business registration online means the process can be finalized within 72 hours."

As I wrote in my post, "Role of the Private Sector in Stabilization: Providing Sustainable Employment in Afghanistan", a thriving private sector is crucial in nation stabilization and sustainable development. In my private sector development work in countries like Afghanistan, Peru or Uganda, I have witnessed the challenges local citizens encounter when registering a new business. Access to capital is often a barrier for citizens to launch their own business, but it is not the only one. Cumbersome processes to registering a new business such obtaining the necessary documents from the government office, which may be located a long distance away, prevent would-be entrepreneurs from starting the process to increase the standard of living for themselves, better provide for their family, and potentially create jobs those living in the surrounding community. Online platforms like UNCTAD's eRegistrations will play a crucial role for a country to build a thriving formal private sector.

What do you see are the benefits and challenges of a country deploying the eRegistrations platform? What other services should a country utilize to build its formal private sector?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Shelterbox: Providing Immediate Relief to Victims of Natural and Other Disasters

I recently attended a STAR-TIDES research demonstration at the Pentagon, located just outside of Washington, D.C. STAR-TIDES is an acronym for Sustainable Technologies, Accelerated Research-Transportable Infrastructures for Development and Emergency Support, which is geared to organize inexpensive and effective solutions for humanitarian emergencies or post-war reconstruction. Several companies demonstrated fascinating technological products, which have an immediate impact in the developing world or in any humanitarian emergency. One such product is the Shelterbox, a large, rugged, green plastic container that holds a 10-person tent and a range of other equipment necessary in providing immediate relief to victims of natural and other disasters anywhere around the world.

Lakewood Ranch, Florida-based Shelterbox USA, Inc. is a nonprofit organization that provide victims of disaster with shelter and oversees the assembly and delivery of the Shelterbox. For disclosure purposes, this post is not a public endorsement of Shelterbox USA but a review of the Shelterbox and its components.

The nonproft organization explains, "Shelterboxes are sponsored by service clubs, (Rotary Clubs), school and church groups, businesses and individuals, etc. Materials are ordered from a range of suppliers selected for general use, long-life, quality and price. Shelterboxes are prepared and packed using all new materials as delivered from manufacturers, at the Shelterbox warehouse based in Helston, Cornwall. The standard Shelterbox weighs 110 lbs. and has approximate dimensions 2'3" x 1'4" x 11". They are sealed and banded for transit and security. Box contents vary depending on the nature of the disaster requiring their use. Boxes are sometimes packed with two 10-person tents in them, (to the exclusion of some smaller items, to maximize shelter capacity)."

Some of the selected items that are available for inclusion in the Shelterbox are:

• One 49 gallon box (The Shelterbox) initially the container for delivery of the materials listed below. Once delivered, can be used as water tank, food store, cot, table, etc.;
• One ten-person tent, including two fabric interior privacy partitions, outer fly-sheet and repair kit. These tents are considered 'winter suitable' by international relief standards;
• Vinyl insulated sleeping mats and lightweight thermal blankets. More compact than sleeping bags, these mats and blankets have multiple uses. The blanket can also be fashioned to catch water, as a tarp, etc. while the mat also serves as a ground 'table' for meals, or tent rugs;
• One pack of 180 water purification tablets or a water purification kit; and one 5 gallon flat-pack water container (each tablet will purify a full container of water providing 1,800 gallons of clean drinking water, which should be sufficient for a family of ten for up to three months);
• Two 2.1 gallon, collapsible, plastic water carriers;
• One collapsible trenching shovel;
• Rope, 164 foot;
• Repellant-treated mosquito netting;
• Ten PVC Ponchos/ten HD plastic bags;
• Tool kit in canvas bag: hachet, jack-knife, screwdriver, hammer, hoe head etc.;
• Multi-fueled cook stove;
• Eating utensils: enamel plates/cups; and
• Children's activity kit-simple school supplies, stickers and coloring book.

The contents are under continuous review. A small stock of wind-up radios (short-wave and FM) has been obtained to substitute a sleeping bag in every tenth box should such a requirement arise. For shipping purposes, a large container (40 feet) can accommodate up to 240 Shelterboxes, smaller containers would typically be half the size and quantities. The Shelterbox is designed to enable a family of up to ten people survive for at least six months. (Photo from Myanmar courtesy of Shelterbox USA)

According to the nonprofit's website, the first 140 Shelterboxes were sent to Gujarat in India following a devastating earthquake in 2001. Since then, ShelterBox has responded to more than 80 disasters in over 50 countries, sending out nearly 75,000 boxes worldwide – providing emergency accommodation for more than 500,000 disaster victims.

Aaron Rose is an advisor to talented entrepreneurs and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

The Role of the Private Sector in Stabilization: Providing Sustainable Employment in Afghanistan

On June 10, 2009, I attended "Role of the Private Sector in Stabilization: Providing Sustainable Employment in Afghanistan," a conference sponsored by the Afghan American Chamber of Commerce (AACC) in cooperation with the National Defense University-Near East South Asia (NDU-NESA) Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C. I served on a panel titled, "Practices and Ideas for Financing SME Businesses and Economic Growth," which discussed sustainable solutions to Afghanistan's recovery and reconstruction through private sector development. While the focus of the conference was on private sector development, it was clear that any sustainable economic solution will require a collaborative effort of the governments, nongovernmental organizations, private investors, and the local population. Immediate needs include access to capital, capacity building in public sector, public infrastructure development and maintenance, and access to international markets to facilitate exportation of Afghan-made goods.

The one-day conference brought together several speakers representing government agencies, nonprofit organizations, Afghan entrepreneurs, and American investors. Major General Arnold Fields, USMC (ret.) Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), correctly said, "People want to live their lives well" and the people of Afghanistan should be more involved with redevelopment since they provide the best information and resources. Saad Mohseni, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Moby Capital Partners, elaborated further by claiming the private sector can do a better job at economic development than the government. He recommends a sector-by-sector approach and noted patience is needed since the government and people will make mistakes.

A repeated message throughout the conference was the need to improve access to capital. Bernie Carreau, Senior Research Fellow at National Defense University's (NDU) Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) recommended that the Afghan Diaspora needs to be more engaged in private sector development and increasing foreign direct investment (FDI). Mildred Callear, Chief Operating Officer of the Small Enterprise Assistance Fund (SEAF), a Washington, D.C.-based global investment firm focused on providing growth capital and operational support to businesses in emerging markets and those underserved by traditional sources of capital, discussed SEAF's Afghan Growth Finance fund. Created in 2007, the size of the Afghan Growth Finance fund is USD $25 million and provides investments in the $500,000 to $2 million range. Several small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from a wide array of sectors including agro-processing, construction, media (local language), technology and Internet service providers are benefiting from SEAF. According to Ms. Callear, for every $1 invested generates $12 in the local economy.

Several Afghan entrepreneurs questioned the effectiveness of government-sponsored development projects. Mahmood Karzai, Chief Executive Office of Afghanistan Investment Company and First Vice-Chairman of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce & Industries (ACCI), noted that government contractors are compensated whether regardless of the project's success whereas Afghan entrepreneurs draw salaries only when their respective business generates a profit. David Beg of Barakat Group of Companies and president of Metro Pact Corporation, a Virginia-based company whose focus is international trade and government relations management, asserted that government contractors do not invest with their own capital and government funds should be directed to those who are willing to invest in themselves. In the panel, "Countering the Drug Cartels: Boosting the Legitimate Agricultural Economy," several of the speakers pointed out that increasing employment in the formal sector will have a direct effect on reducing the lucrative opium and related narcotic trade.

During the panel discussion on private sector finance strategies, Francis Skrobiszewski, an investment fund advisor and member of the AACC Board of Directors and chair of the AACC Working Group on Private Sector Investment and Access to Capital spoke about the need and opportunity to create a "US-Afghanistan Investment Fund" to finance Afghan private sector development and sustainable jobs supporting peace and stability, including the Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) border areas. Mr. Skrobiszewski said, "Using private sector risk-taking and decision-making approaches with appropriate funding and proper mandate to complement traditional governmental initiatives such a Fund could creatively adapt and implement existing mechanisms and models to counter the drug cartels, which utilize their own commercial approaches in agricultural regions.

Philip Mistretta with the U.S. Department of Defense said Afghanistan's banking system has grown rapidly with 17 licensed banks, $2.4 billion in deposits, and $1.0 billion in loans as of January 2009. Furthermore, according to Mr. Mistretta, the Afghanistan Central Bank and Finance Ministry have established a market-oriented legal, policy and regulatory framework, and other non-bank financial institutions, such as donor-supported microfinance institutions, operate throughout Afghanistan. He noted that Afghanistan needs to develop financial markets for foreign exchange, debt instruments, and (eventually) equity securities.

Linton Wells II, Ph.D., Distinguished Research Professor and Transformation Chair at NDU explained information and communications technology (ICT) has not been utilized very well in Afghanistan and having access to ICT determines the winners and losers. There is a need for better collaboration between the Afghan government and private sector, according to Dr. Wells. This blog post, "Cheap and Effective Solutions for Humanitarian Emergencies," provides additional information about about Dr. Wells' work on STAR-TIDES, a research project focused on affordable, sustainable support to stressed populations.

My presentation focused on the need to develop a bottom-up approach to achieve sustainable social and economic development. For example, one of Afghanistan's greatest challenges is information (knowledge) sharing. I explained there are several investment and entrepreneurial opportunities in ICT (mobile solutions, including telemedicine, distance learning, and entrepreneur training), renewable energy to power villages, manufacturing and processing facilities. In addition, while I agree there is an immediate need to increase capital, there is an equally important need to facilitate access to export markets. My presentation further explained the need to create centers for entrepreneur development as a community resource and incubator for SME development. I ran out of time before I had the chance to explain the need to create investment vehicles such as private equity and enterprise funds (e.g., the US-Afghanistan Investment Fund) to support private sector development and SME growth.

An afternoon panel, "Reducing Corruption via Sound Economic Governance," focused on rule of law issues in Afghanistan. Clare Lockhart, co-founder and Director of The Institute for State Effectiveness explained the need to create a legal framework to facilitate business growth and handle legal disputes. Mariam Atash Nawabi, an attorney, television host, and co-founder of the Afghanistan Advocacy Group presented Afghanistan's comprehensive rule of law network through the creation of several administration agencies.

While the conference provided essential information regarding the role, challenges, and opportunities of the private sector in Afghanistan, there remain a few unanswered questions:

1. What are the entrepreneurship opportunities for women?
2. Is success in Afghanistan's private sector for American investors contingent on the U.S. maintaining a military presence?
3. What is the vision of a regional solution to Afghanistan's recovery and reconstruction?
4. How can Afghanistan become competitive in a global economy? What is Afghanistan's competitive advantage?
5. How will Afghanistan build an educated workforce necessary for sustainable economic development?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Afghan Telecom Expands Telemedicine Solutions

While preparing to serve as a panelist for a conference, "Role of the Private Sector in Stabilization: Providing Sustainable Employment in Afghanistan," sponsored by the Afghan American Chamber of Commerce (AACC) and in cooperation with the Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. on June 10, 2009, I learned that Roshan, a leading telecom operator in Afghanistan, expanded "its first-of-its-kind Telemedicine solution in Afghanistan beyond Kabul to include provincial hospitals. Bamyan Provincial Hospital will be the first provincial medical facility linked to the innovative Telemedicine project, which uses broadband technology, wireless video conferencing and digital image transfer, to provide hospitals in Afghanistan with real-time access to specialist healthcare diagnosis, treatment and training expertise from abroad." Roshan's partners include Cisco Systems, the Government of Afghanistan, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi (AKUH), French Medical Institute for Children (FMIC), Aga Khan Health Services (AKHS), Bamyan Provincial Hospital (BPH) and other technology suppliers.

Launched in 2007, "more than 340 patients have benefited from Telemedicine and more than 231 Afghan medical personnel have participated in diagnostic and training opportunities facilitated by the technology." Roshan's vision is to extend Telemedicine links to other provincial hospitals and medical institutions in Europe and North America and the company will invest US$1.5 million over the next three to five years in the Telemedicine project that began through the company's Corporate Social Responsibility department. "The Telemedicine project developed in Afghanistan is also seen as a model for addressing healthcare delivery shortcomings in other developing countries where access to medical diagnosis, treatment and training is limited."

Roshan further explains, "Telemedicine involves the use of broadband technology that provides real-time high speed access for the transfer of medical imaging, video, data and voice. Applications include the ability to send real-time X-ray, ultrasound and CAT Scans (Computerized Axial Tomography) for evaluation. The technology also enables e-learning and learning through video conferencing. The initial service provided is teleradiology, the electronic transmission of radiological patient images. There are currently an average of 40 teleradiology cases evaluated monthly between FMIC and AKUH and ongoing training provided to medical professionals to build capacity. Telemedicine capabilities will gradually be expanded to other rural regions of Afghanistan, to include the use of smart-phone and PDAs, and to address different services and procedures including evaluation of tissue samples and the on-line performance of medical and surgical procedures."

Telemedicine creates an opportunity to increase capacity of services to a large population who require medical treatment or wellness education. Moreover, telemedicine offers an opportunity for businesses and entrepreneurs to develop programs and support services required to implement an essential service in improving the quality of life for vulnerable populations. Click here to watch an interesting video on Global Health TV about new technologies solving global health problems.

UN to Provide Technology for Development Training for Afghan Policymakers

In an effort to bridge the digital divide in Afghanistan, I support the United Nations' announcement that it "will be holding an information and communications technology (ICT) 'training the trainers' programme in Kabul to educate the country's decision-makers on using the latest innovations to promote development." The first in a series of eight modules, the UN will produce a four-day workshop "based on the Academy of ICT Essentials for Government Leaders Programme designed by the UN Asian and Pacific Training Centre for ICT for Development (APCICT) to give decision-makers the necessary knowledge and skills to fully leverage the technology in achieving Afghanistan’s social and economic development goals." (Photo courtesy of the United Nations)

As an entrepreneur and business advisor, I see many opportunities in developing innovative products, applications, and services tailored for people, from top government officials to rural farmers to school-aged kids, living in developing nations. Governments of industrialized nations use the latest technological innovations in warfare, but there are few efforts in developing technological tools for recovery and reconstruction of developing nations. For example, while the industrialize markets are slowly adopting 3G technology, 4G networks are currently being deployed throughout Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Mobile broadband is an ideal channel for delivering a variety of solutions in the developing world. The problem exists, however, that policymakers and ordinary citizens in developing nations lack the hardware (mobile devices), content (mobile applications), and training to effectively utilize the latest mobile broadband networks. Service and equipment costs also pose an large obstacle to gaining access to much needed solutions. This problem creates an opportunity for entrepreneurs who design ICT hardware and applications and I encourage world governments, civil society, and the private sector to collaborate more effectively to harness the latest technology in providing solutions to bridge the digital divide.

The UN announcement explains, "The programme is a collaboration between Afghanistan’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), the body mandated to promote and implement ICT projects in the country, and APCICT, a subsidiary body of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). As part of its commitment to ICT capacity building, MCIT has set up 34 training centres throughout Afghanistan to run programmes for local governments and the public."

Protectionism on Foreign Trade Hurts Developing Nations

On May 25, 2009, The New York Times published an editorial, "Trade and Hard Times," which accurately explains the importance of supporting foreign trade and avoiding pitfalls of protectionism. The editorial says, "Today, trade is collapsing, one more casualty of the global financial crisis. That is especially bad news for countries that are dependent on trade for economic growth, including many developing nations that had nothing to do with the financial mess." I completely agree. Foreign trade is important for developing nations in getting access to outside markets for their goods. While many developing nations have a service sector that contributes to their respective gross domestic product (GDP) and provides an income for families, developing nations need access to outside markets in order to have a viable chance to truly realize GDP growth and move in a positive trajectory from developing to industrialized status. (Picture of the vocational student who made the bowl is from one of my trips to Uganda)

The Times editorial correctly explains, "Foreign trade has been a potent force for good over more than half a century. It propelled Japan's emergence from the ashes of World War II and helped it become an industrial powerhouse. It is the cornerstone of development strategies from China to Brazil. It is what links countries all over the world in a network of production that underpins global prosperity." Many industrialized countries that enjoy the benefits of a thriving economy (despite a contrary perception during our global economic recession) would not have grown from a destroyed foundation caused by conflict or natural disaster. In addition to Japan as noted above, Germany, with the financial help of the United States, Canada, and European nations, relied on foreign trade to rebuild socially and economically after World War II.

Moreover, according to the Times, "Exports from the United States declined 30 percent and imports 34 percent in the first quarter of the year from the previous three months. Imports into countries that use the euro from outside the area were down 21 percent compared with the first quarter of last year. At this rate, the World Trade Organization’s dire projection in March that global trade would decline 9 percent this year will soon start to look outright boastful. The drop in trade is spreading economic weakness across the world, as one country’s drop in imports translates into a fall in exports, and production, in another." Here in the United States, protectionism will muddle the situation further by restricting trade and reducing economic growth opportunities. Certainly the Ugandan girl pictured above can sell her goods on the local market to her neighbors and passing tourists, but the real potential lies in helping her gain access to outside markets such as Europe, Canada, and the United States.

The New York Times editorial notes that governments of the 20 biggest economies committed $250 million of trade finance over the next two years: "They should keep those pledges, and they may have to do more." While increasing funding may be necessary in the short-term, long-term solutions in achieving sustainable economic development lies within crafting a comprehensive private sector development strategy that facilitates access to markets through foreign trade. This is true in many developing nations such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Haïti.

Educate, Emancipate and Empower Women

In my blog post, "International Women's Day: Women and Men Uniting to End Violence against Women," I list a number of statistics that affect women in our modern era. I define "modern" as the ability to communicate easily through advances in information and communications technology and improved access to education, social and economic development services. Technology has allowed us to better understand the inequality issues between men and women, but many of us have yet to assertain the ability to resolve these issues or more importantly, to empower women to take more control of their respective lives just as men have appreciated for millennia.

The Seattle Times published an editorial by Tim Hanstad, president and chief executive officer of the Rural Development Institute (RDI), a Seattle-based international nonprofit advocating for secure land rights for the world's poorest people (see "Access to land improves women's lives around the world"). I agree with Mr. Hanstand, "While the international community has focused on initiatives that create opportunities for women, it is important to recognize those achievements are not equally shared, and much more needs to be done for women mired in poverty." Many of the economic projects I come across should have a stronger component focusing on poverty eradication for women.

Mr. Hanstand draws a connection between land ownership and poverty, "Women represent 51 percent of the world's population and provide 60 to 80 percent of food production in most developing countries. But they own less than 2 percent of the world's titled land, largely because few have legal rights to land." Through all my extensive experiences working in the developing world, I see that women are largely responsible for food production; however, I did not realize the small number who has the legal right to own land.

Mr. Hanstand explains how "RDI developed its Women and Land Program about 10 years ago to focus specifically on gender issues around land, which have long been ignored. Research in this area is absolutely crucial. We know that deeply rooted cultural norms in Third World countries won't be changed overnight, but a lot can be done just by changing policies and laws to create political and legal space for women to assert their rights and become pioneers in this field in their respective countries. It's also important to listen to what women want and not to impose Western values on these societies and to provide legal education on the laws that are already in place."

In today's, March 13, 2009, New York Times, Nicholas Kristof published an editorial noting the recent creation of a Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee dealing with women chaired by California Senator Barbara Boxer, President Obama establishing the Council on Women and Girls, "and the State Department naming a new position of special ambassador for global women’s issues" (see "Women’s issues getting traction").

Programs like the Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program should have a specific focus on recruiting and training women to become entrepreneurs in the agriculture and agribusiness sectors (see "Rebuilding Afghanistan through Rural Enterprise Development"). As Mr. Kristof writes, "One of the things we've learned over the last 15 years is that you can't fight poverty effectively unless you educate, emancipate and empower women, and bring them into the formal economy."

Rebuilding Afghanistan through Rural Enterprise Development

On March 4, 2009, I had the pleasure of meeting Ehsan Zia, Afghanistan's Minister of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) and Javaid Zeerak, Coordinator for the Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP). I very much enjoyed having a direct discussion with Minister Zia and Mr. Zeerak and the substance of our meeting was focused on building Afghanistan's economy through agriculture and agribusiness development.

The AREDP's development objective is to have higher market participation of targeted rural enterprises, which will result in increased income and sustainable employment opportunities. AREDP's "is an initiative designed to improve all levels of business development and entrepreneurship from sole proprietorship and micro-enterprises to Small and Medium Enterprises [SMEs], in order to improve rural livelihoods and expand employment opportunities across rural Afghanistan," according to a summary document. The initiative will be managed by an office with Afghanistan's Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development. An governing board will consist of members from the private and public sectors. The AREDP "is intended to be national in scope and will build on other developmental initiatives of the Government of Afghanistan, donors, and MFIs [microfinance institutions]."

AREDP consists of three program components: Community Enterprise Development, SME Development, and Program Management. The Community Enterprise Development will provide support to strengthen and expand business and market skills of enterprise groups. In addition, the program will facilitate rural access to financial services and resources.

"The program will create and provide support to Enterprise Groups and Producer Associations, as well as establish a sustainable basis for rural financial services by forming Savings Groups. The program aims to link Savings Groups to existing MFIs wherever possible, and for this purpose will closely cooperate with MISFA [Microfinance Investment Support Facility for Afghanistan]. If there are no MFIs operating in a region, the program will try to attract MFIs to set up branches in the targeted region and will provide some assistance in start-up costs, in line with what is provided by MISFA. In the case that there are no suitable MFIs in an area, the program will provide assistance in the set-up of Village Savings & Loan Associations (VSLAs). After successful training, the VSLA will receive a seed capital of $2,000-$5,000 (depending on the size and membership of the VSLAs) and will manage loans to qualified borrowers."

The AREDP will offer business development and technical support, and credit advisory services to facilitate SME development. "In order to further stimulate lending to SMEs by banks and MFIs, the program will also consider capitalization of banks on agreed terms to lend to SMEs in select value chains. Furthermore, in an effort to promote innovation and encourage investment, the program will also sponsor an annual competition for an innovation prize of up to 100,000 USD in each province."

AREDP's program management will focus on the implementation oversight, project planning, governance and coordination, and capacity building and institutional development of the program. "In addition, this component will include an Office of Research and Technical Services (RTS) that will provide backstop support services to enterprises across rural Afghanistan. Where available, the clients will be connected to service providers from the non-governmental, MFI and private sectors; with the balance of services to be provided by the RTS itself."

Minister Zia and Mr. Zeerak are seeking funding approval from The World Bank for the Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program. During our meeting, I recommended that the Minister take a more direct approach in engaging the private sector for financial, logistical, and technical support. For example, in Washington state, there are several agribusinesses that can serve as partners in implementing AREDP's strategic plan and I invited Minister Zia and Mr. Zeerak to visit Washington State to meet with industry leaders.

I know there are many challenges to Afghanistan's sustainable development such as security, lack of physical infrastructure, and a strong opium cultivation market, but the AREDP to empower Afghan's to own SMEs and participate in the global economy is a step in the right direction. Is it unrealistic to imagine finding "Grown in Afghanistan" produce in Costco or Whole Foods?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

UN Continues its Support for Afghanistan

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon made a surprise visit to Afghanistan today, February 4th (see "On surprise visit, Ban reaffirms UN support for Afghanistan"). During Mr. Ban's meeting with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, the Secretary-General reiterated the UN's support for "Afghanistan remains a key priority in 2009. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) will have strong support and strong engagement with increased support from the United Nations General Assembly and general membership." Mr. Ban continued, "[The United Nations] strategy is simple: to implement the plan agreed to by the Afghan Government and 88 donors in Paris in June last year. This plan is clear and what we need is to get on with it to bring tangible changes on the ground while continuing to assess the situation." (Photo courtesy of the UN News Centre)

According to the UN News Centre press release launching the Humanitarian Action Plan for Afghanistan for 2009 in Geneva on February 3rd, "The United Nations and its partners appealed for $604 million to help meet the needs of Afghans made vulnerable by natural disasters, lack of access to basic social services, increasing food insecurity and the worsening security situation. Some $354 million of the appeal will go towards food aid, while almost $100 million will be used to rid the strife-torn nation of landmines, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes told reporters...."

I recognize there are significant challenges in Afghanistan, but where does economic development and support of Afghan entrepreneurs fit in the United Nations' strategy? The appeal states, "Extreme poverty--42 per cent of the population live on less than $1 per day--and lack of development increase the suffering of the population during times of crisis and limit their coping strategies." Security is a significant problem, but the definition of "security" should also include economic security.

Afghans have a great entrepreneurial spirit and they recognize their role to be the primary driver in stabilizing the current crises and positioning the country to better compete in a vastly competitive global economy. Afghanistan hosts numerous economic opportunities such as mining (marble, gold, copper, precious and semiprecious stones), agriculture (pomegranates, wheat and beekeeping), and renewable energy (micro-hydro generators, wind, and solar energy). Trade and commerce should have a larger role in Afghanistan's development strategy and I recommend that the United Nations, The World Bank, and nongovernmental organizations increase their efforts in promoting economic development.

Cheap and Effective Solutions for Humanitarian Emergencies

Photo: Department of Defense/
Fred W. Baker III

Under the leadership of Linton Wells II at National Defense University, STAR-TIDES promotes affordable, sustainable, support to stressed populations—post-disaster, impoverished, or post-war with or without involvement of the military. It is an international research project to promote unity of effort among diverse organizations where there is no unity of control. As such it seeks to build bridges across boundaries between business, civil society and government stakeholders who are working toward common goals. The principal means are: (1) trust building and social network development, (2) sharing information and “sense-making” approaches, and (3) low-cost logistic solutions.

On October 15, 2008, I attended a STAR-TIDES research demonstration at the Pentagon just outside of Washington, D.C. STAR-TIDES is an acronym for Sustainable Technologies, Accelerated Research-Transportable Infrastructures for Development and Emergency Support, which is geared to organize inexpensive and effective solutions for humanitarian emergencies or post-war reconstruction. Several companies were demonstrating some very fascinating technological products that would make an immediate impact in the developing world or in any humanitarian emergency.

For example, Windsor, Vermont-based Seldon Technologies designed the Seldon WaterBox™, which according to their data sheet, "uses Seldon’s unique carbon nanomaterial to absorb contaminants from water. The system creates drinking water by removing bacteria, virus, cysts and other contaminants without the need for heat, ultraviolet light, chemicals, electricity, or waiting time."

GATR Technologies, a Huntsville, Alabama-based defense and satellite company, produces the GATR-Com™ 2.4 Meter Inflatable Deployable Satellite Communication System, which "features a unique deployable design that provides high-bandwidth communications for transmission of secure and non-secure data, voice, and video."

Photo: STAR-TIDES

Additional companies demonstrating their products included the Hexayurt, a sturdy and efficient emergency shelter constructed of suitable materials including common building materials (fire safe insulation boards), hexacomb cardboard and plastic. Solar Stik™ manufactures a product that uses solar as a power generator that can be used in a wide range of applications.

During the demonstration at the Pentagon, the Saint Augustine, Florida-based company was using The Solar Stik™ Breeze (pictured next to the Hexayurt), which according to the company's website is the first truly portable hybrid solar and wind power generator, to provide electricity to a number of generators to run electronic equipment (laptops) and a satellite system.

Although these technologies may have been designed primarily for military use or humanitarian crises, their applications could provide solutions in the developing world to support a broader sustainable social and economic strategy.

For any sustainable social and economic development strategy to have a chance of succeeding, it must have the collaboration of the private sector, civil society, and government stakeholders. With adequate financial and logistical support, STAR-TIDES could make a difference to people worldwide facing the challenges of surviving a one-time natural disaster or the daily constraints of poverty.

Fred W. Baker III with the American Forces Press Service provides additional information about the STAR-TIDES demonstration on his article entitled, "Network Works to Help Interagency Crisis Response."

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.