Toolkit Designed to Help Deliver Digital Skills Training for Impact in Sierra Leone

In my experience working in emerging and developing countries, many people mistakenly assume that if an individual is connected to the mobile internet, then they are able to utilize various life-enhancing applications. However, there is a stark difference between having access to the applications and the knowledge to make full use of these digital tools.

According to a report published by GSMA, "Mobile networks are the primary – and often only – channel for people to connect to the internet, especially in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs)." What is more, "Despite the rapid growth in mobile internet adoption in recent years, there remains a significant usage gap in LMICs: 48% of the population across LMICs still do not use the mobile internet. Of this group, 42% live within the footprint of a mobile broadband network but are not using the internet – this is known as the 'usage gap.' In Sierra Leone, the usage gap is significantly higher at 77%. Among people in this group, a lack of digital skills is one of the most significant barriers preventing them from adopting the mobile internet."

To address the digital skills barrier, the UK-based organization, which aims to unify the mobile ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change, says it "developed the Mobile Internet Skills Training Toolkit (MISTT), a free-to-use set of resources covering the fundamentals of the mobile internet, popular apps and use cases." The report also points out that "In order to gather evidence on the efficacy of the MISTT and identify potential areas for further improvements, the GSMA evaluated a digital skills training campaign conducted by Orange Sierra Leone, using MISTT. Specifically, the evaluation aimed to understand how effectively the MISTT delivers improved digital skills, what the socioeconomic impact is on trainees, and what improvements are needed to better reach the underserved."

Below are the report's key findings:

• "MISTT improved digital skills for the majority of trainees interviewed in Sierra Leone, by reducing the functional barriers to mobile internet use, boosting learners' self-confidence and sense of independence and increasing the frequency of internet use by the trainees."
• "There are indications that MISTT has had a positive socio-economic impact in Sierra Leone. This was visible in two main ways: enhancing trainees' potential to conduct business online has improved their prospects and income; and trainees have acquired greater knowledge and education across diverse topics."
• "The impact of MISTT training on business was most observable for women, as they experienced the greatest changes to their digital skills confidence levels, as well as day-to-day life benefits, including being able to do business online while at home. Women were also more likely to enjoy the spill-over effects of the training, as their spouses passed on what they had learned."
• "Incentives are a critical part of digital skills training – both for potential customers and trainers. The effectiveness of digital skills training can be greatly enhanced by providing appropriate incentives to potential trainees and their trainers. For trainers, this might involve providing financial incentives for the delivery of training that drives digital inclusion. For customers, this involves emphasizing how the mobile internet can be valuable to their lives and making them aware of any incentives, such as free mobile data and lunch, that are available to reward participation at in-person training events."
• "Face-to-face training provides numerous advantages for the underserved. Face-to-face or in-person training allows a more tailored learning experience with opportunities for practical application by learners. For example, in-person training enabled trainers to spend time answering trainees' questions and providing tailored support on some of the challenges that they encounter. This is most important for learners with lower literacy and education levels, as well as those in rural areas. However, while effective, in-person training may be more costly for implementers and more difficult to scale."
• "Digital skills training needs to consider the specific barriers that underserved users face. Issues, such as lower levels of education and a lack of basic digital skills and confidence, can impact on people's ability to access and participate in training activities. The evaluation also highlights the importance of adopting a gender lens to the delivery and expansion of digital skills training to ensure it is reaching women. There is a need to consider who might be excluded or disadvantaged from the proposed delivery approach, as well as ensuring the location, timing and content of the training, for instance, will meet their needs."
• "To enhance the scalability and viability of MISTT digital skills training, implementers can explore other approaches to delivering digital skills beyond in-person channels to understand their effectiveness. Remote channels, for example videos, voice messaging and radio broadcasts, may provide an effective way for delivering digital skills training and/or improving training awareness in a cost-effective manner. Both in-person and remote channels have relative advantages and disadvantages. While in-person channels may be more effective at reaching certain population segments, remote channels provide unique benefits to implementers as they are easier to scale and can be iterated or updated more easily than face-to-face channels. Depending on the training objectives, both digital and in-person channels can be used simultaneously to complement the other."
• "Combining digital skills training with other events or product pitches can extend the reach of digital skills training for the underserved and offer benefits to implementers. Delivering digital skills training alongside other activities, such as entertainment events or with the sale of a product or service, can encourage wider participation by reaching people who may be reluctant to attend a formal training event, for example, or linking it to something that is seen as relevant to them. Nonetheless, it's important to bear in mind the needs of underserved groups while designing these activities. For example, for women, the idea of 'standing in the street watching entertainment' may not feel culturally appropriate, as many are worried about theft or appearing to be lazy people who have nothing important to do."

I appreciate how GSMA's report "highlights the key learnings from the evaluation of the MISTT digital skills training initiative implemented by Orange Sierra Leone. It provides key insights on the effectiveness of MISTT in improving digital skills acquisition among different underserved groups, as well as the socio-economic impact of the training." There is also value in how the report "identifies considerations for improving the effectiveness of digital skills training in reaching underserved groups." Importantly, however, the GSMA notes that "the insights and recommendations in this report do not represent our comprehensive view of how to implement MISTT. Rather, they are recommendations specifically arising from this evaluation, and can be a basis for further research and trial. This complements our existing research on digital skills and evaluation of MISTT implementations."

What are your recommendations on how to promote digital literacy and reduce the digital usage gap in LMICs?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

A Roadmap to Ensure That Every Citizen in Zambia Benefits From the Digital Revolution

My colleague, Aze Malawo, who leads the operations in Sub-Saharan Africa for Global Tactics, an multinational advisory firm that helps clients understand how the world is changing, and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed, splits her time between Washington, DC and her native Zambia. Since my first meeting Aze in the mid-2000s, I have heard about the beauty of the southern African nation and the business opportunities that exist in several sectors including the information and communications technology sector.

It was, therefore, with great interest to read a report published by the GSMA, a UK-based organization that aims to unify the mobile ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change, highlights how "the digitalization of the economy is a key driver of social and economic growth in Zambia." According to the report, "By taking advantage of the opportunities offered by digitalization, the Government of Zambia can deliver on the development objectives that it has defined and achieve sustainable economic growth."

The report's key findings include:

• Adoption of digital technologies across both public and private sectors accelerates economic growth by promoting innovation and investment. It increases productivity across all sectors of the economy, improves access to global value chains (GVCs) and improves the efficiency and transparency of government and public services. Moreover, access to emerging technologies such as mobile money, artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing are desirable as drivers of digital and financial inclusion which in turn supports human development.
• This study identifies opportunities and quantifies the economic value of adopting digital technologies across selected sectors of Zambia's economy. Accelerated development of the digital economy would benefit both the Government of Zambia and the country's citizens in multiple ways. Economic growth would raise incomes, create jobs and raise tax revenues. Digital technologies would also provide direct benefits through enhanced access to information, productivity-enhancing technologies and improved educational outcomes.
• Mobile connectivity and mobile money both play a key role in digitalization. Mobile broadband connectivity provides the foundation for the digitalization process. Mobile money is also critically important, providing individuals and businesses an accessible and efficient route to financial inclusion.
• The mobile telecoms sector in Zambia has made steady progress in recent years but there remain significant challenges. These challenges include expanding access and increasing adoption of digital services, particularly among low-income households and in rural areas. This will require further network rollout and upgrades, support to ensure that devices and services are affordable for everyone and boosting adoption through stimulating demand for digital services.

The report importantly points out that "[p]olicy plays a critical role in the future development of the digital economy in Zambia. The growth and development of the digital economy is strongly influenced by policy and regulatory decisions taken by the government." The GSMA says its "study identifies how opportunities for economic growth and development can be unlocked through policy reforms. Overcoming the challenges facing the sector will require bold policy initiatives on the part of government to stimulate demand, reduce the cost of supply and promote investment in mobile telecoms networks and in mobile money services."

GSMA's report also "identifies a series of specific policy recommendations that, if implemented, would increase the number of internet users in Zambia by 2.1 million by 2028. This would reduce the internet usage gap by 9 percent points."

The priority policy reforms include:

• Reducing sector-specific taxes and fees on mobile telecoms services
• Reducing operating costs and improving the financial sustainability of the mobile business
• Modernizing the tariff regulation regime, to provide more certainty for operators
• Lifting restrictions on mobile money charges and removing the mobile money levy
• Stimulating additional demand for mobile telecoms services

If adopted, these policy reforms "will help Zambia to achieve its economic development objectives, including economic transformation across important sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. The potential macroeconomic impacts are summarized below in Figure 1."

Image: GSMA

In a press release issued by the GSMA, Angela Wamola, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa for the UK-based organization, said: "The Zambian government has demonstrated strong commitment to digitalization through its National ICT Policy 2023 and the Eighth National Development Plan. Now, more than ever, collaborative action between the government, industry, and stakeholders is needed to create the enabling environment for digital transformation. The future of Zambia lies in digital connectivity. With the right policies, we can close the digital divide, empower communities, and unlock new economic opportunities. The Zambia Digital Economy Report provides a clear roadmap to ensure that every citizen benefits from the digital revolution. Now is the time for bold action."

What are your thoughts about the report's findings? What digital transformation opportunities are you seeing in Zambia's mobile technology sector.

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

SBA's Guide Aims to Help Businesses Plan and Recover From Disasters

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Small and medium-sized businesses are focused on solving a problem for their customer by providing a service or product of the highest quality. While most businesses are focused on growing their sales, too many are not prepared for how an immediate disaster like a hurricane, earthquake, unseasonably cold weather or a pandemic can adversely impact their operations. A new document shows how these risks could disrupt business operations and planning for them will enable owners to rebound quicker and avoid a recurrence.

In announcing the launch of its Business Resilience Guide, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) says its publication serves as "a comprehensive resource for small business owners who may not be familiar with disaster preparation." The government agency whose mission is to help power the American dream of business ownership, adds that its "guide, which has six sections to plan and recover from disasters, includes best practices and template forms to help mitigate disasters for America's entrepreneurs and help them build back stronger."

The SBA's Guide correctly points out that "[w]hen disaster strikes, even the best run businesses can be impacted. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, about 25 percent of businesses do not reopen after disasters. Some businesses can cope with adversity better than others – they are less disrupted by an event, resume operations sooner, recover faster, and adjust for the future based on their experience. These businesses are described as resilient."

What is more, "For a small business, being resilient involves understanding risks, planning for them, identifying employee needs and responsibilities, and ensuring back-ups and redundancies are in place. This Guide can help small businesses determine how to anticipate the impacts of a disaster on operations so disruptions can be minimized."

SBA's publication leads business owners through creating a robust resilience plan, covering crucial areas such as:

• Understanding their current landscape: This involves documenting essential operations and identifying dependencies.
• Identifying key partnerships: It is crucial for seamless business continuity to recognize and nurture relationships with important vendors, suppliers, and collaborators.
• Safeguarding vital resources: The guide emphasizes the importance of data backup, cybersecurity measures, and infrastructure protection.
• Strengthening financial readiness: Strategies for managing cash flow, securing emergency funding, and minimizing financial losses.
• Embracing proactive mitigation: This section delves into strategies for minimizing the impact of potential disruptions through risk assessment and mitigation tactics.

The last section on embracing proactive mitigation also includes an overview of the SBA's post-disaster lending programs that can help business owners mitigate the effects should their business be impacted by a disaster. "SBA loans can assist with expenses related to the repair or replacement of property and can provide support for essential business operations in the aftermath of a declared disaster. These low-interest subsidized 30-year loans have 0 percent interest for the first year as well as deferred payments for the first year after the loans are disbursed."

The Guide also mentions how the SBA "offers a mitigation option as part of the post-disaster loan program that enables a property owner to increase their physical disaster loan by up to 20 percent of the verified loss (or a maximum of $500,000) to pay for interventions that will make a property more resilient in the future. Mitigation reduces a property's risk of damage from future events so people can return to their home or business more quickly after a disaster. The section on embracing proactive mitigation also includes multiple examples of hazard mitigation efforts at different price-points."

Do you find SBA's Guide useful to help your business plan and recover from disasters? What would you add?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Presents Current Use Cases and Election Risks of Utilizing GenAI

"Since OpenAI (US) launched ChatGPT in November 2022, AI, especially generative AI, has been driving investment for corporate entities, "According to a white paper published by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). "Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple (all US) have all been racing to be the most valuable companies in the world, with Nvidia leveraging its chips, Microsoft its cloud, and Apple its iPhone and other hardware. They are all looking to create a compelling ecosystem, even though this may put them even further in the crosshairs of regulators." The report crucially asks: "is progress in AI moving the technology from an experimentation to an implementation phase?"

The report looks "at how companies have been using generative AI to date, and whether AI-generated content has had a major impact on elections so far in 2024." Key findings include:

• The launch of ChatGPT and similar services has democratized the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in many industries, and companies are now experimenting with and implementing the technology.
• The main use cases so far for generative AI have been to improve operational efficiency, enhance innovation and support customer service through using chatbots.
• Most businesses still rely on non-generative AI, however, and it remains important for them to understand the limitations of generative AI technology, such as hallucinations.
• The biggest impact in the short term will be felt during democratic elections, particularly in countries with a polarized electorate, a fragmented information ecosystem and global influence (including the US).
• As AI implementation continues, sustainability will become a major barrier, given that generative AI systems use a lot of electricity and have a large carbon footprint.

Addressing how companies are using generative AI, the report points out:

Companies in multiple industries have been experimenting with generative AI. Although the technology is new, two of the three major use cases across sectors are typical of many digital transformation strategies. The first is to improve operational efficiency, either in terms of increasing productivity or improving manufacturing and operational processes, often to cut costs. In the tech sector, this often includes using AI to speed up coding, or it can optimize internal processes such as training. Companies are also looking at technology to drive new revenue streams: generative AI is driving innovation across multiple sectors such as energy, financial services or healthcare, for example by making it easier to digest and analyze research papers. It is also used in customer services or to create better client-facing customer experiences. As the technology runs on large language models and is capable of dealing with vast amounts of text (as well as other media such as images), this is an area where development will continue across several industries, not just to interact with customers, but also for marketing purposes.

The EIU provides examples on how companies in certain sectors are using generative AI to drive innovation, efficiency and improve customer service:

• Automotive
• In-vehicle voice assistants
• Chatbots to facilitate sales leads online
• Consumer Goods
• Creating custom products
• Voice/text enabled customer service assistants
• Inventory management
• Energy
• Aiding oil and gas delivery
• Customer apps to optimize energy demand
• Financial services
• Insurers use it for underwriting
• Custom GPT based on internal data for advisors
• Cashflow management
• Healthcare
• Drug development
• Custom GPT-based database to help with research and development
• Chatbot for public healthcare

Regarding how AI-generated content can have an impact on elections, the report notes: "Generative AI is not only being integrated into the corporate world; it is also infiltrating the political world. With 2024 being a year of multiple elections, and more than 4bn people called to vote, the impact of AI-generated content (both legitimate and fake) in election campaigns is only just emerging and will only increase."

As for sustainability becoming a major barrier to AI adoption, the EIU explains that "AI will continue to be implemented in 2025, but we expect that the main focus will be on sustainability. The 2024 Electricity report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that global electricity demand from data centers, driven by AI usage, could double between 2022 and 2026, adding to the grid the equivalent of Germany's national consumption. Regulators are already looking into the issue."

Moreover, "In the US, the Artificial Intelligence Environmental Impacts Act of 2024 was proposed in March 2024 to assess and mitigate the environmental impact of AI; however, it is unlikely to become law before the November 2024 elections. The EU is further ahead, with the European Commission adopting the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) in March 2024, which Germany has already implemented into law. From September 2024 data center operators will be required to report on areas such as data volume, renewable usage or waste utilization to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions."

I support the EIU's conclusion that "The implementation and evolution of AI will be an ever ongoing process. The technology needs to be scaled up, and proponents need to move away from overoptimistic forecasts of artificial general intelligence (AGI) happening before the end of the decade. AI does not need to be perfect to have an impact. In fact, everyone should be aware that it is not perfect, and its usage will depend on the use case and require critical human oversight."

How is your business utilizing AI?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Silicon Valley at the Top of the Global Startup Ecosystem in 2023

The 2024 Global Startup Ecosystem Report (GSER) by Startup Genome and the Global Entrepreneurship Network was released at London Tech Week, in collaboration with the Founders Forum, Informa Tech and London & Partners. Presented by Stephan Kuester, Managing Partner at Startup Genome, the GSER analyzes data from over 4.5 million companies across 300+ entrepreneurial innovation ecosystems and features rankings that indicate which ecosystems are currently driving innovation and deep knowledge about startup trends around the world.

Global key findings from the the 2024 GSER include:

• Top three global ecosystems: Silicon Valley remains at the top, followed by New York City and London tied for #2.
• The number of new unicorns in 2023 was down 58% from 2022 and 87% from the 2021 peak. With 15 unicorns, Silicon Valley again led all ecosystems for the most new unicorns in 2023, though this was down 80% from 2022. The Tashkent, Lyon, and Rhineland startup ecosystems welcomed their first unicorns in 2023.
• Series A funding amount in 2023 was down 46% from 2022, and the value of large exits ($50M+) fell 47% over the same period.
• In 2023, the Series A funding amount share for Top 40 ranked GSER 2024 ecosystems was 65%, down from 79% for these ecosystems in 2019. The share of Series A funding amount for the Top 100 Emerging Ecosystems reached 19% in 2023 vs. 13% in 2019.
• Q1 2024 has projected higher Series A funding amount and deal count than Q4 2023.
• Generative AI saw a surge in funding, with nearly 20% of all VC funding in 2023 going to GenAI-focused startups. GenAI VC funding increased 3x in 2023 compared to 2022. Deal counts nearly doubled.
• In 2023, more than half of new unicorns were in the GenAI and Deep Tech sub-sectors, a higher rate than in 2021.
• Late-stage Cleantech startups raised 2.5x more funding in H2 2023 than in H1 2020. Europe has outperformed the U.S. and China in terms of Cleantech Series A funding growth from 2021 to 2023.
• Seoul moved up three spots, now ranked #9, entering the Top 10 ecosystems this year.
• Tokyo has entered the global Top 10 for the first time, marking the most significant improvement among the Top 10 ecosystems.
• The top two Chinese ecosystems Beijing and Shanghai, have dropped in the overall rankings to #8 and #11. Shenzhen has shown impressive growth, moving up seven spots to rank #28.
• Europe is the most represented region in the Emerging Ecosystems Ranking, with a 42% share in the Top 100 Emerging Ecosystems, followed by North America with 27%.
• Madrid moved up 12 ranks, claiming to #1 in the Emerging Ecosystems Ranking.
• Barcelona moved up two positions in the Emerging Ecosystems Ranking, reaching #2.
• Athens has entered the Top 100 Emerging Ecosystems Ranking, reaching the 51-60 range in 2024.
  
• Greater Lausanne Region moved up 16 positions, reaching #11 in the Emerging Ecosystems Ranking.
• Jakarta (#6) and Metro Rhein-Ruhr (#9) both entered the Top 10 Emerging Ecosystems Ranking.
• Melbourne is ranking as the #32 Global Startup Ecosystem, moving up one spot from GSER 2023.
• Mexico City has shown impressive growth, reaching the 21-30 range in the Emerging Ecosystems Ranking from the 41-50 range in 2023.
• The top five ranking sub-Saharan African Ecosystems are Nairobi, Lagos, Cape Town, Johannesburg, Accra.
• Tel Aviv is the only MENA ecosystem ranking in the Top 40, globally moving up one place to #4 (tied with Los Angeles).

Now in its 12th year, the GSER provides insights into the world's leading startup ecosystems, emerging trends, and key challenges facing entrepreneurs. As explained in Startup Genome's press release, "The 2024 edition ranks the top 40 global ecosystems, a ranking of emerging ecosystems, and expanded regional rankings. The report, driven by a consortium of representatives from 40+ countries, looks at the current state of startup activity and related investment. It also highlights startup communities from a regional perspective, separately ranking ecosystems in Asia, Europe, Latin America, MENA, North America, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. Contributions from thought leaders further enrich the report's extensive, evidence-based findings, which are the product of over a decade of Startup Genome's independent research and policy work."

I appreciate how the GSER is designed to provide valuable perspective on the global startup landscape and actionable recommendations for entrepreneurs, investors, policymakers, and other stakeholders looking to drive innovation and economic growth even in these challenging times.

What are your thoughts about GSER's key findings?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Growth Is Proving Surprisingly Resilient in the Face of High Interest Rates and Geopolitical Risks, Says EIU Report

In its latest global economic outlook report, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) "forecasts more fragmentation and regionalization in the world economy in 2024-28 as alliances tighten and competing blocs form." What is more, "The return of industrial policy, including sanctions and the provision of new incentives, will push firms to adopt more inefficient supply chains, stoke trade tensions in strategic sectors and make it difficult to compete across the global marketplace. These developments will drag on growth potential." The EIU expects "global real GDP will expand by 2.8% a year on average over the next five years—below the 3% of the 2010s, which was hardly a stellar decade for the global economy."

The UK-based organization adds that "In the near term, however, the global economy is showing resilience in the face of international conflict and higher interest rates. This mainly reflects the remarkable strength of the US economy, which is driven by strong household finances, a rising trend in manufacturing investment and a booming technology sector. Elsewhere, the picture is less dynamic but short of a downturn." Moreover, "Momentum in Europe will build gradually in 2024. Modest government stimulus in China is helping the economy to in the Middle East as the conflict in Gaza continues. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now in its third year, shows no sign of resolution. Flash points in Asia, such as in relation to the South China Sea and Taiwan, will pose a persistent threat to the fragile stability that has developed in US-China relations. The diffusion of global power and uncertainty over the direction of US foreign policy underpins this rise in geopolitical risk."

Other key findings from the report include:

• 2.5% global real GDP growth in 2024 (compared with 2.4% previously), meaning growth will be unchanged rather than slowing from 2023. Growth is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of high interest rates and geopolitical risks.
• The change in global growth reflects another upward revision for US growth in 2024 to 2.2% (from 2% previously), upward revisions for several European economies that have pushed euro area growth to 1% (from 0.8%) and an upward revision for Brazil to 2.1% (from 1.8%).
• Reduction of expectations for future monetary policy loosening, removing one 25-basis-point cut from the loosening cycles of both the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) and the European Central Bank in 2024-25. In contrast, the EIU now expects the Bank of England (the UK central bank) to cut quicker than previously forecast, lowering its rate to 3.5% by end-2025 (compared with 4.25% previously).
• The US dollar effective exchange rate is now forecast to appreciate for a third consecutive year in 2024—the EIU previously expected a mild depreciation. This reflects a stronger depreciation in the yen's value than previously forecast and the fact that the EIU is no longer forecasting euro appreciation.

On the topic of how climate change and AI may threaten global convergence prospects, the report says:

The green transition and technological change will be among the major trends shaping global economic prospects over the next five years. In both cases, they seem set to diminish convergence prospects for developing economies. Poorer countries will be disproportionately affected by climate change and will struggle to secure financing to mitigate its impact. Although we are skeptical about the scale of productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI), those improvements that do emerge will accrue mainly to developed economies; this will create challenges for countries aiming to move up the manufacturing and services value chains. We still expect some emerging markets to stand out, however, helped by being fairly insulated from geopolitical tensions and rising trade barriers. India is forecast to expand the fastest of any major economy in 2024-28, and Mexico will benefit from nearshoring trends.

Do you agree with the report's findings? How are you preparing your business for a rise in geopolitical risk?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Malaysian Electric Utilities Seek U.S. Partners to Help Decarbonize the Country's Energy Sector

As noted in previous posts in this Forum, I am optimistic about the commercial opportunities that U.S. companies that are looking to sell their services and products in Southeast Asia. Among the ten nations that comprise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), I recommend that American business owners and corporate executives look closely commercial opportunities in ASEAN's six largest economies (data provided by the International Monetary Fund): Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

The Malaysia Country Commercial Guide, which is a useful resource produced by the International Trade Administration, an agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce, explains that "Malaysia is an upper middle-income economy with a population of over 34 million. The country's growing affluent middle class increasingly drives consumer and business demand for quality goods and services. U.S. products and brands are favorably viewed and enjoy a strong presence in many sectors, including technology, machinery, electronics, medical equipment, and franchising."

What is more, "U.S. exporters looking to expand their market presence in Malaysia can benefit from the country's developed infrastructure, an English-speaking business and consumer environment, a well-established legal framework, and the ability to repatriate capital and profits. Malaysia is generally considered an easy and cost-competitive market for doing business. The United States is Malaysia's third-largest trading partner, and U.S. exports of goods to Malaysia were valued at over $18 billion in 2022." The U.S. Department of State also points out that "Malaysia is the United States' 17th largest trading partner and the second-largest trading partner among the 10 ASEAN members, after Vietnam."

Considering my optimism about ASEAN's economic opportunities and interest in employing technologies to mitigate the consequences resulting from global warming, I attended the Malaysia Smart Grid Technologies Reverse Trade Mission (RTM) on May 1st, 2024 in Millbrae, Calif. The U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), which helps companies create U.S. jobs through the export of U.S. goods and services for priority infrastructure projects in emerging economies, sponsored this event. Delegates of the RTM included representatives of agencies within the Malaysian governments and executives from Malaysian energy utilities. Representatives from the USTDA and the U.S. Commercial Service were also in attendance at the event held just outside of San Francisco.

A delegate from the Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) said the Malaysian multinational electricity company is the only electric utility company in Peninsular Malaysia and is the largest publicly listed power company in Southeast Asia. Serving over 10 million customers throughout Peninsular Malaysia (except Sarawak) and the East Malaysian state of Sabah, TNB's core activities are in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The presentation also highlighted how renewables are expected to grow significantly, with Malaysia targeting 70 percent of its 2050 installed capacity. Advancements in storage technologies are making renewables more dispatchable.

While not part of the presentation, TNB's most recent sustainability report explains:

We have been making progress in rolling out the adoption of a Smart Grid as part of our Grid of the Future (GoTF) initiatives. GoTF aims to improve the grid flexibility with two-pronged objectives - to allow for better services to our customers and enable higher growth of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) and Distributed Energy Resources (DER). TNB has achieved a Smart Grid Index (SGI) score of 71.4% in FY2022, which demonstrates significant improvement of 19.4% from 2019. Moving forward, under our Smart Utility 2025 Masterplan, we target to achieve a score of 85% by 2025. Through the establishment of this ambitious target, we aim to facilitate the integration of clean energy into our electricity grid and enable efficient management and utilization of resources. These endeavors will help drive the pace of our decarbonization efforts and renewable energy initiatives to achieve our net zero aspiration.

 

Source: www.tnb.com.my/sustainability

Attendees then heard a presentation by Sarawak Energy Berhad, which is state owned electric utility company of the State of Sarawak. Sarawak Energy's vision is to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for Sarawak by meeting the region's need for reliable and renewable energy—providing electricity to 3 million Sarawakians in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the utility aims to ensure all rural communities including the most remote and inaccessible upriver communities have access to constant electricity supply. Using micro-hydro, which is the small-scale harnessing of energy from falling water such as that from steep mountain rivers, and solar hybrids, Sarawak Energy has a goal to help more than 30,000 rural household achieve full electrification by 2025. Sarawak Energy is also making progress in becoming a regional power house as the utility exports power to the Indonesian province of West Kalimantan.

Source: www.sarawakenergy.com/about-us

According to the aforementioned country commercial guide, "The Malaysian government is seeking ways to grow its national grid to be a smart, automated, digitally-enabled grid. Malaysia is looking for solutions that ensure greater cost efficiency, reliability, and customer satisfaction than can be achieved with centralized grids. Market opportunities for U.S. companies exist for smart meters, grid technologies and systems, and transmission & distribution systems." I appreciate how this business briefing provided an opportunity for U.S. entities to meet with a delegation of decision-makers from Malaysia interested in learning more about U.S. smart grid technologies and best practices for cybersecurity, distribution networks, and storage solutions for the power sector.

What opportunities are you seeing in ASEAN's renewable energy sector?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

'Buy Low, Sell High'

A conversation I often have with a beginner investor about the formula of becoming successful investor in public equities often goes like this:

Beginner Investor: "How do I become a successful investor?"

Me: "Buy low, sell high."

Beginner Investor: "That's all?"

Me: "Yes, that's all."

While it is technically that simple, the reality is much different as there are various nuances to go into which stocks to buy, when to buy them, and when to execute a sell order. Jim Cramer, a financial journalist on CNBC, presents his approach on how to start picking individual stocks. "Stock picking is not simple and requires substantial research, he said, stressing that it's essential not to shoot blindly. Instead, it's wise to invest intentionally and put money into stocks and sectors you’re familiar with.

"'You want to get started? Go small, invest in what you know, research intensely,' Cramer said. 'Back then, I got old data from the public library. Now? It’s as simple as a key stroke, and the information's free — including up to the minute financials, analyst presentations, brokerage research and, of course, the conference calls that I tell you are musts if you want to actually know what you’re doing.'"

Jim Cramer's Guide to Investing contains 25 points to becoming a successful investor. There are a few worth discussing:

6. "Buy and Homework, Not Buy and Hold"

Mr. Cramer explains that within a diversified portfolio, "the facts change, the leaders become followers, the disrupters disrupt, consumer preferences change and so on. The facts change and so must our investment thesis. If you're not doing the homework then how are you going to be sure that what you bought in the past is still what you own today?"

He points out that "The two reasons people often don't do the homework is because they have either (wrongly) convinced themselves that if they hold long enough that ultimately all stocks make a comeback, or that since they don't have the time to do it, nobody does."

I strongly support his assertation that "On the first reason, that's just nonsense. Stocks represent ownership in a business. The notion that a business that is doing poorly will always improve and return

to strength is just silly. If that was the case, there would be no bankruptcies or disrupters displacing leaders. Industry landscapes are always changing, businesses are living, breathing entities and without

proper stewardship will fail. Ultimately, the stock will follow the fundamentals."

With respect to the second point, he says that "you may not have the time, but that's what professionals are paid to do. Make the time. If you can't keep up with the homework— be it because of time restrictions or a lack of understanding when it comes to financial statements—then you either need to own fewer stocks or hand it off to a professional. Tracking companies may not be your day job, but it is a pro's job."

7. No One Ever Made a Dime by Panicking

"Emotion, especially panic, has no place in investing," according to Mr. Cramer. "When we panic, we don't think clearly. And when we aren't thinking clearly, we make mistakes. If you associate the value of what you own with the price a stranger is willing to throw at it, it can be easy to panic when the bids come in low." I support his analogy that "just because someone offers you less for your house today than the price you paid yesterday doesn't mean it is any less valuable. It may simply mean that the current bidders don't see the value you see."

He adds: "When volatility strikes, you should focus more on the value of what you own than the price being put on it. By doing that and keeping level head, you can make rational decisions and perhaps realize that there will be a better time to sell— either when things calm down or your investment thesis materializes and other buyers begin to see the value that you've seen all along."

11. Don't Own too Many Stocks

Following on the importance of doing your homework, Mr. Cramer recommends "One hour of research on each stock per week. That's the rule of thumb on keeping up with the homework. If you can't manage that then you own too many stocks."

12. Cash and Sitting on the Sidelines are Fine Alternatives

Particularly when interest rates for savers were low for so long, many beginning investors thought it was erroneous to have cash in the bank. They pressured themselves into think they should put most, if not all, of their cash in the stock market. As Mr. Cramer notes, "The aversion to cash that most investors have is truly to their detriment. So many are fearful of the 'cash drag' on the way up— meaning that they fear underperforming due to part of their portfolio not being invested, that they fail to think of the positive addition that same cash drag can add to performance in a down market. Believe it or not, you can keep some of your portfolio in cash. If you don't have a feel for the market, step to the sidelines. That's the beauty of a no-called-strike game, you can sit there for as long as you like waiting for that perfect pitch."

What is more, "Some investors believe they should be fully invested, or they'll lose out to inflation. That's not a reason to invest. You only want to take a position, long or short, when you have an edge. If you have nothing compelling to buy, meaning you're only going to find it more attractive if it goes down in price, then step to the side. It's better to lose a few percentage points of buying power to inflation than it is to lose money on a low conviction, no-edge position. The idea that you should

invest so that you have 'enough exposure' is just nonsense. There is one reason and one reason only to invest— to make money."

24. "Be Able to Explain Your Stock Picks to Someone Else"

"I like to say that if you can't explain why you want to own the stock in three bullet points, you shouldn’t buy it," Mr. Cramer writes. "Not only will doing so help you better understand the story, but in doing so you will better discover if there is something you missed. Ideally you will even find someone with the opposite view of your own and have a good old fashion bull-bear debate."

His investment guide includes a list of eight questions his ex-wife would ask "over and over again whenever he wanted to put on a new position":

1. What's going to make this stock go up?
2. Why is it going to go up when you think it is?
3. Is this really the best time to buy it?
4. Haven't we already missed a lot of the move?
5. Shouldn't we wait until it comes down a little more?
6. What do you know about this stock that others don't?
7. What's your edge?
8. Do you like this stock any more than any of the others you own and why?

"That last one was especially important because she never liked to add another stock without taking one off. After all, how many good ideas can a person have at once? Moreover, sticking to that rule will help you abide by rule 11 and keep up with your homework."

Aaron's Rule: Do Your Homework

Most publicly-traded U.S. corporations are required to file a Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The document gives a comprehensive summary of a company's financial performance during the company's most recent fiscal year. I read the 10-K of each corporation that is in my investment portfolio. And I often read the 10-Ks of corporations that are competitors or partners of the corporation I hold stock in.

While the SEC provides a useful guide on how to read a 10-K, there are certain parts of the 10-K that I pay close attention to. Item 1 - "Business" is where the corporation provides a detailed description of its business including its main products and services, what subsidiaries it owns, and what markets it operates in. This section may also include information about recent events, competition the company faces, regulations that apply to it, labor issues, special operating costs, or seasonal factors. This is a good place to start to understand how the company operates.

I strongly recommend learning about the risks that may have a material effect on the company's operations or financial performance. Item 1A - "Risk Factors" includes information about the most significant risks that apply to the company or to its securities. Companies generally list the risk factors in order of their importance. In practice, this section focuses on the risks themselves, not how the company addresses those risks. Some risks may be true for the entire economy, some may apply only to the company's industry sector or geographic region, and some may be unique to the company.

Understanding the management's perspective on the business results of the past financial year is crucial to helping me evaluate the worthiness of owning the company's stock. Item 7 - "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" gives the company's perspective on the business results of the past financial year. This section, known as the MD&A for short, allows company management to tell its story in its own words. The MD&A presents:

The company's operations and financial results, including information about the company's liquidity and capital resources and any known trends or uncertainties that could materially affect the company’s results. This section may also discuss management’s views of key business risks and what it is doing to address them.

Material changes in the company's results compared to the prior period, as well as off-balance sheet arrangements and the company’s contractual obligations.

Critical accounting judgments, such as estimates and assumptions. These accounting judgments – and any changes from previous years – can have a significant impact on the numbers in the financial statements, such as assets, costs, and net income. 

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

I also read the quarterly earnings report, known as Form 10-Q, and listen to the earnings report which generally include statements by the corporation's chief executive and chief financial officers. Shareholders often have the opportunity to pose questions to the corporate executives. The SEC reports and information about the quarterly earnings calls are often found on the company's website under "Investor Relations."

Building a valuable investment portfolio is not difficult, but it does require time to learn about the company's business, financial performance, and risks that may adversely impact both. What resources do you use to evaluate the investment worthiness of a corporation?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

GSMA's Annual Report on the State of the Global Mobile Industry Looks at How Operators Are Exploring the Potential of genAI

According to the GSMA's most recent annual report on the state of the global mobile economy, "Mobile connectivity remains pivotal in driving digital innovation. It empowers individuals and enterprises with a wide array of transformative technologies while also aiding governments in delivering positive societal impacts."

Produced by GSMA's in-house research team, GSMA Intelligence, these reports contain a range of technology, socio-economic and financial datasets, including forecasts out to 2030. This year's report points out that "The impact of mobile connectivity is evidenced by its contribution to the economy. In 2023, mobile technologies and services generated 5.4% of global GDP, a contribution that amounted to $5.7 trillion of economic value added, and supported around 35 million jobs."

The report's key findings include:

• 5G will account for over half (51%) of total mobile connections by 2029 and reach 56% adoption by the end of the decade.
• 58% of the world's population were using mobile internet at the end of 2023, representing 4.7 billion users and an increase of 2.1 billion since 2015.
• Three billion people are still not using mobile internet despite living in an area covered by mobile broadband networks (the 'Usage Gap'), underscoring the urgency of addressing barriers to adoption highlighted in the GSMA's 'Breaking Barriers' campaign, such as handset affordability and literacy/digital skills.
• 5G is expected to benefit the global economy by more than $930 billion in 2030, of which the primary beneficiaries are expected to be manufacturing (36%), public administration (15%) and the services (10%) industries.

Infographic: GSMA Intelligence

The are two items that I found of particular interest. One is how eSIM adoption continues to gather pace. "The number of eSIM consumer devices launched has grown significantly over the last five years and the number of commercial eSIM services is also on the rise. This has set the foundation for eSIM adoption to gather pace over the course of the decade," the reports notes. What is more, "GSMA Intelligence's baseline scenario predicts around 1 billion eSIM smartphone connections globally by the end of 2025, growing to 6.9 billion by 2030. This would account for around three quarters of the total number of smartphone connections by 2030." The GSMA claims that "North America will be the region with the fastest rate of eSIM adoption due to Apple's launch of eSIM-only smartphones in the US in September 2022."

On the topic of mobile operators exploring the potential of generative AI (genAI), "the range of genAI applications is broad," the GSMA notes. "Much of the early work has focused on using the technology to improve customer services and support sales and marketing activities. However, as genAI matures, there is potential for operators to not only support internal use cases but generate new revenues from AI investments." Examples of operators generating new revenues from investments in genAI include "SK Telecom's bold AI pyramid strategy ... as do recent product announcements from the likes of KT, NTT and SoftBank."

As for maximizing the AI opportunity, the report says "The speed of AI adoption in the mobile industry may depend on several factors. First, mobile operators often face difficulties in accessing the internal data needed for training AI models, hindered by the diversity and volume of data sources. Additionally, operators must ensure the accuracy of AI-generated insights, as reliance on inaccurate data may lead to flawed decision-making."

With respect to ethical concerns around AI that still need to be addressed, the report boldly asserts that "The mobile industry is committed to the ethical use of AI in its operations and customer interactions to protect customers and employees, remove any entrenched inequality and ensure that AI operates reliably and fairly for all stakeholders. The GSMA's AI Ethics Playbook serves as a practical tool to help organizations consider how to ethically design, develop and deploy AI systems."

What trends are you seeing that are shaping the global mobile ecosystem?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Singapore, Denmark and the US Are Predicted to Have the Best Business Environment From 2024–28

The Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) business environment index measures the attractiveness of the business environment in 82 countries and territories, examining 91 indicators spread across 11 different categories. According to the latest business environment index, "Singapore, Denmark and the US will be the three geographies with the best business environment over the next five years." What is more, as reflected in the chart below, "Several west European economies, alongside Canada, Hong Kong and New Zealand, make up the remaining top ten best places in the world to do business. These are all advanced economies and long-standing strong performers in our index, so tend to be safe bets for investments. However, both headline and per capita GDP growth rates are likely to be fairly stable and slow."

The EIU also explains, through the image below, "geographies that see the biggest improvements in score in our index in the next five years (2024-28) compared with the past five years (2019-23). These are not the same economies that will see the fastest real GDP growth in 2024-28—although Qatar and India will grow very strongly—rather, they are places where we expect the most significant policy improvements, infrastructure investment or growth in market opportunities." The UK-based organization adds that its "model suggests that their improvement in our business environment index may subsequently result in an uptick in per-head growth in real GDP, investment spending and FDI."

Regarding those countries already in the EIU's index that scored strongly, the report points out that "Qatar has implemented a US$220bn investment program over the past decade, mainly focused on infrastructure. Its business environment has benefited from the expansion of Hamad International Airport, the road network and tourism infrastructure." Furthermore, Lithuania has long been open to trade and investment, but a major tax reform will soon make it more attractive by extending corporate tax relief and shifting the tax burden away from labor. Greece sees the biggest improvement in the business environment in our index over this period. This reflects the impact of a pro-business government, led by the New Democracy party, now in its second term, that has undertaken reforms, cut taxes and boosted business confidence."

With respect to the world's most populous nation, the EIU says "India is the only single-country market that offers a potential scale comparable to that of China." The South Asia country's "youthful demographic profile promises both strong demand and good labor availability. Alongside solid economic fundamentals, digital infrastructure and favorable demographics, more policy support is being introduced to attract manufacturing investment."

Other geographies further down the EIU's ranking where they expect a strong improvement include Serbia, which "has seen a virtuous circle from its openness to FDI in the past, which has driven growth and attracted further investment, including in higher-value-added sectors. A recent strengthening of macroeconomic policy and institutions supports market stability."

Moreover, "Argentina's sharp improvement in score largely reflects the free-market reforms that we believe the administration of the president, Javier Milei, will introduce—in particular, policies to boost private enterprise and competition and attract foreign investment. In the Dominican Republic, the current Abinader administration, which we expect to be re-elected in May, will continue its business friendly policies. It is encouraging investment into the tourism sector (for example with port upgrades for cruise ships), and improving logistics infrastructure to become a regional transport and distribution hub.

Places with weak business environments but potential for improvement include Kenya, Angola, and Venezuela. As the EIU explains:

Kenya passed a Privatization Act in 2023, which will help to trim the state’s excessively large economic footprint while boosting the private sector. Angola, while close to the bottom of our rankings, is arguably a better place to do business than five years ago, with the Lourenço administration using its improved ties with the US to revamp key legislation, bringing the country's financial sector into line with international standards and reducing the tax burden on the non-oil sector. In contrast, Venezuela is the worst ranked in our index, and will remain so despite a slight improvement after its painful economic collapse.

As I have stated previously on this forum, Southeast Asia has one of the world's most attractive business environment. Among the ten members of the Association of South‑East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the EIU highlights Thailand as a market that "saw a notable improvement in our business environment index in 2021-22, followed by an acceleration in growth in real GDP per head in 2022-23." The report says Thailand was among the first movers in ASEAN "to give special incentives to invest in electric vehicles and green industries. At the same time, many infrastructure projects were being finished—notably the mass transit expansion in the capital, Bangkok—or under way, including as part of the country's Eastern Economic Corridor megadevelopment project." The report adds that "Thailand has benefited from—and encouraged, with preferential policies—the China+1 trend as investors seek to diversify away from China, often towards India and ASEAN."

Do you find this report helpful in determining which countries to invest in or avoid?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.