Report Delves Into the Transformative Power of Digital Innovation and Its Role in Driving Economic Prosperity

GSMA Intelligence published an insightful report that delves into the transformative power of digital innovation and its role in driving economic prosperity. Titled Economic growth and the digital transformation of enterprises, the report notes that "Industries worldwide are undergoing a profound digital transformation, reshaping the way businesses operate and interact. Connectivity, which is expected to account for 21% of enterprise digital transformation spending from 2024 to 2030, has become a critical enabler of this transformation. Businesses that can embrace advanced technologies that leverage connectivity, such as AI, IoT, robotics, AR/VR, big data analytics and cloud computing, can enhance operational efficiency, improve customer experiences and unlock new revenue streams."

Regarding how digitalization of enterprises is accelerating, the report says "This trend has been further accelerated by global challenges, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. These challenges have all underscored the critical importance of digital infrastructure in ensuring business resilience and continuity."

The report's key findings are listed below:

• 5G solutions are amplifying digital transformation, but enterprise adoption is still limited. Initial 5G adoption has unlocked new use cases and accelerated digitalization for early adopters across industries. But the reach of enterprise adoption of 5G remains limited. For example, according to GSMA Intelligence’s Digital Transformation Survey 2024, only 2% of surveyed enterprises had deployed 4G/5G private networks.
• Digital transformation's economic impacts are not yet fully understood, but this report bridges the gap. While the economic impacts of mobile connectivity are well documented, the broader effects of digital transformation across sectors remain less understood. This report seeks to bridge this gap by offering empirical evidence on how the latest wave of digital technologies drives economic growth.
• Mobile technologies and digital transformation will boost global value added by nearly $11 trillion in 2030. The continued integration of digital technologies in enterprises will increase mobile’s contribution to global GDP from 5.8% in 2024, equivalent to $6.5 trillion, to 8.4% by 2030, equivalent to almost $11 trillion.
• Four sectors (manufacturing, financial services, automotive and aviation) will account for 34% of this impact. By 2030, advanced connectivity could enable manufacturers to achieve over $400 billion in annual cost savings, while the automotive sector could save nearly $45 billion in quality-related costs. Airports stand to reduce nearly $10 billion in flight-delay costs, and financial institutions could see a revenue uplift of over $140 billion through enhanced process automation.
• Realizing 5G's transformative potential requires collective stakeholder action. 5G could unleash the full potential of digital transformation, driving significant economic impact and commercial value. But the benefits cannot be realized without action from all stakeholders. Policymakers, operators and the broader ecosystem must collaborate to overcome barriers to enterprise adoption, including high implementation costs, device compatibility issues and often a lack of internal technical expertise within enterprises.

In writing the report's Foreword, Richard Cockle, Head of GSMA Foundry and Connected Industries at GSMA, explains that "The digital transformation journey is not merely about adopting new technologies; it is about reimagining business models, enhancing customer experiences and fostering a culture of continuous innovation. Enterprises that embrace this transformation, working in partnership with mobile operators, are better positioned to navigate the complexities of the modern economy, unlock new opportunities and achieve sustainable growth."

I agree with Mr. Cockle's concluding paragraph that "Together, let us embrace the opportunities that digital transformation presents and work towards a future where economic growth and technological innovation go hand in hand."

How is your business embracing the transformative power of digital innovation?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Returns Are a Headache for Retailers

Whether through my capacity as a strategic advisor at Koba, LLC, which owns the e-commerce platform Koba Roots, or being a long-time shareholder of Amazon.com, I have learned that returns are a significant problem online retailers face which can negatively impact their financial performance. Therefore, it was with great interest to read an article by The Economist that notes 21% of online orders in the United States, "worth some $218bn, were returned in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation, up from 18% in 2020. For clothing and shoes it can reach around 40%. It is a headache for retailers."

The article adds that online shopping in the U.S. "now makes up 15% of retail sales by value, up from 10% at the start of 2019." What is more, "only 5% of returned goods can be resold immediately by retailers. Most go to liquidators at knock-down prices or are thrown away. Retailers typically recoup about a third on a $50 item, says Optoro, a firm that helps with returns." Interestingly, "Over half of items are returned because they are the wrong size."

Some companies like Japan-based Uniqlo, or Zara, a global retailer based in Spain, are levying "a small fee for posted returns." The article point out that "Other firms, including Amazon, are selling more refurbished goods as a way to cut loses."

Online retailers are starting to use artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality (VR), and augmented reality (AR) to simplify the ordering process for the costumer and reduce returns. According to The Economist, "Using artificial intelligence to help retailers decide what to do with the returned goods, taking into account factors such as price trends in second-hand markets is the brainchild of goTRG," a Florida-based startup which helps retailers sort returns. The article adds that Walmart, through its planned acquisition of AR startup Memoni, will let "shoppers virtually try on glasses. Walmart also offers ways to try on clothes and arrange furniture in rooms using AR. Amazon recently launched a VR feature that lets users try on shoes." The article concludes that "Retailers will now try virtually anything to cut down on returns."

In a CNBC article, Mehmet Sekip Altug, associate business professor at George Mason University, said: "In the past, retailers tended to overlook what happened after the sale. But 'as online sales increase, the return rate has also increased significantly, and I don't think it's a secondary problem anymore.'"

What are your recommendations for how retailers can reduce their return rate?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Recommendations on What Private Investors Should Look for and What Governments Should Do to Attract Investment in 5G

In reading the previous post, which is about a report that looks into how mobile and digital technology, including IoT, LTE and 5G, can support industry decarbonization, a client of my consultancy, Global Tactics, sent me an email asking whether or not countries are ready for 5G. While people globally have been touting the benefits of 5G for the past few years, his observation as a chief executive of a multinational IT services and hardware company is that some countries are more ready than others. I appreciate the question as I recently read The Economist Intelligence Unit's (The EIU) report entitled The 5G Readiness Guide: Deployment strategies, opportunities and challenges across the globe.

In providing background on the report, The EIU says it "collected data and information on the 5G environment in the top 60 telecoms markets worldwide, in order to score them on six key metrics: the business environment, spectrum availability, the current level of 5G deployment, 5G network speed, progress on industry trials of 5G and the robustness of 5G policy." The paper also contains a snapshot of The EIU's scores for each region.

The EIU importantly explains that its "assessment is intended to help companies planning to invest in the 5G ecosystem to understand where each country stands in the 5G race, as well as its future potential. It also allows policymakers to benchmark their 5G regulations and policies against those of other countries, and make improvements that could attract more investment into the sector."

Below are the reports key findings:

• An early start in 5G preparation, along with better management of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in 2020, has helped many Asian countries to free up spectrum in the higher bands in order to forge ahead on 5G rollouts.
• Gulf countries are also among the most 5G-ready globally and offer significant market opportunities for providers of next-generation technologies.
• Despite lagging in spectrum auctions, Western European countries are at the forefront of testing and rolling out 5G-based industrial applications.
• Inadequate spectrum policy and a lack of regulatory coordination have held back 5G development in the US, but progress is being made under the Biden administration.
• Most countries in Africa and Latin America are likely to remain focused on expanding 4G and fiber broadband in the medium term, given a lack of funding and the low capacity to monetize 5G.
• A 5G-specific policy that covers auctions, deployment targets and trials, coupled with government support in the form of tax incentives or low-cost loans, is the best way to support faster rollouts.
• The US-China dispute over Huawei and other Chinese telecoms equipment manufacturers poses the biggest risk to 5G rollout across all regions, second only to disruption caused by Covid-19.

The EIU also presents the following recommendations bifurcated by what private investors should look for and what governments should do to attract investment.

What private investors should look for:

• Countries with a national 5G policy that covers auctions, deployments and industrial trials.
• Governments that enable collaboration between operators, vendors and industry players.
• Countries with a high mobile-service penetration rate and a high average revenue per user, where 5G smartphone shipments are on the rise.
• Industrial economies where businesses are keen to adopt 5G technology.

What governments should do to attract investment:

• Ensure availability of contiguous blocks of spectrum and equitable distribution to all operators.
• Consult industry players on spectrum base-price prior to auction, in order to avoid delays.
• Offer single-window clearance for telecommunications licenses and a medium-term national 5G policy.
• Offer incentives to encourage infrastructure and spectrum-sharing among operators that can reduce investment costs.
• Partner with vendors and the industry to facilitate industrial trials.
• Make 5G spectrum directly available to enterprise users, such as manufacturers, who want to deploy a private 5G network.
• Explore opportunities for public-private partnerships (PPPs).

The EIU correctly notes that while the global rollout of 5G has been affected by the pandemic, "The coronavirus has, nevertheless, accelerated digitalization and opened up new opportunities for telecoms operators. Fast, reliable connections have become vital to businesses, consumers and governments as they try to cope with this global crisis."

The reports adds that "For companies, the pandemic has underlined the benefits of deploying online offerings, automation and developing the Internet of Things (IoT) to manage supply chains. For consumers, it has increased demand for online goods and services. And, for governments, it has highlighted the importance of deploying online services, including healthcare, as well as the potential benefits of advanced data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics."

I support The EIU's assertion that "5G will be the launchpad for countless new applications, from self-driving cars and smart cities to augmented reality (AR)." What is more, "5G networks will offer benefits in the form of hyperfast connections, improved reliability, high capacity and low latency (meaning faster response times for requests). For telecoms operators, the upgrade represents an opportunity to move beyond communication services to offer hi-tech solutions to businesses. Businesses can use these technologies to transform their operations and optimize efficiency, while governments can create a robust 5G infrastructure to attract investment, create jobs and drive economic growth."

The report adds that while the "benefits of 5G are significant ... so is the investment necessary for its rollout." Moreover, "As operators and governments decide which markets will offer the best returns on 5G, there are several factors to consider. Strong and affordable infrastructure (with the right spectrum and good coverage of base stations) will be the foundation, but operators will also need to find the right 5G products and service applications to sell. Finally, the business environment will need to support significant research and development (R&D), so that 5G capabilities are developed and used in the most efficient way." As reflected in the map above, "The weighting of these factors differs markedly by region."

Do you agree with The EIU's recommendations on what private investors should look for and what governments should do to attract investment? If 5G is deployed in industrialized countries at a faster rate than emerging markets, how can governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector prevent a digital divide forming which will result in a gulf between those who have access to the internet and those who do not?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

GSMA: '5G Has Arrived – but 4G Is Still King'

According to a report authored by GSMA Intelligence, the research and consulting arm of the GSMA, a UK-based trade organization, "5G will drive future innovation and economic growth, delivering greater societal benefit than any previous mobile generation and allowing new digital services and business models to thrive."

The Mobile Economy 2020 further explains: "Many countries have already launched 5G, but widespread commercial 5G services are expected in the post-2020 period, which will mark the start of the 5G era. 5G is developing in parallel with rapid advancements in both AI [artificial intelligence] and IoT [Internet of Things]; the combination of these technologies will have a large positive impact, spawning innovations for consumers and enterprises defined by highly contextualized, on-demand and personalized experiences."

As highlighted in this press release, GSMA Intelligence's report reveals that:

"5G has arrived – but 4G is still king: 4G was the world's dominant mobile technology last year, supporting more than half (52 percent) of global connections. Despite the emergence of 5G, 4G will continue to grow over the coming years, increasing to account for 56 percent of connections by 2025.

"The industry is investing heavily in 5G: Mobile operators are expected to spend $1.1 trillion worldwide between 2020 and 2025 in mobile CAPEX, roughly 80 percent of which will be on 5G networks.

"The smartphone is becoming ubiquitous: Smartphones are forecast to account for four of every five connections by 2025, up from 65 percent in 2019.

"IoT will be an integral part of the 5G era: Between 2019 and 2025, the number of global IoT connections will more than double to almost 25 billion, while global IoT revenue will more than triple to $1.1 trillion.

"Subscriber growth is slowing, but the industry still has people to connect: The number of unique mobile subscribers at the end of last year stood at 5.2 billion (67 percent of the population) and is forecast to grow to 5.8 billion by 2025 (70 percent).

"Half the planet connected to the mobile internet: Almost half of the global population (3.8 billion people) are now mobile internet users, forecast to reach 61 percent (5 billion) by 2025."

Regarding connected devices, "The business case for IoT is shifting from just connecting devices to addressing specific problems or needs with solutions to collect, process and integrate data from multiple sources, which can then be analyzed to create value and provide actionable insight." Furthermore, "Enterprise IoT connections will overtake consumer in 2024, and will almost triple between 2019 and 2025 to reach 13.3 billion. This will account for just over half of all IoT connections in 2025.

"Consumer IoT connections will almost double to 11.4 billion in the same time frame. More and more devices include connectivity built in by default and interoperability within the ecosystem is increasing."

The report also explains that smart manufacturing and autonomous cars are important verticals for 5G and presents the following use cases for the former:

Robots and robotics

• 5G increasingly complements Wi‑Fi in factories
• Real-time AI-powered robot collaboration and integration
• Cloud-based wireless robotics

Labor augmentation

• 5G and AI-powered industrial AR, enabling workforce training and augmenting human skills
• High precision simulations of human-machine interactions in various manufacturing situations

Remote real-time manufacturing

• Live remote monitoring and reconfiguration of robots and processes
• Remote quality inspection

Connected operational intelligence and analytics

• 5G coupled with AI enables real‑time data gathering to inform immediate manufacturing decisions
• AI-based analytics for processes, inefficiencies and predictive maintenance for robots

On the topic of mobile delivering social impact, the report says: "With more than 5 billion unique subscribers worldwide, and more than 7 billion people covered by a mobile network, mobile is increasingly being used to access an array of life-enhancing services that contribute to and catalyze the achievement of the UN SDGs."

"Despite the global reach of mobile," however, "much more can be done to leverage its power and support the delivery of the SDG 2030 targets. Crucial to this will be helping people realize the full benefits of using mobile and mobile internet services in terms of accessing health information, public services and digital payments, both in developed and developing countries. New technologies that are supported by IoT also need to achieve scale if mobile operators are to maximize their impact on the SDGs – for example, solutions in smart cities that can reduce pollution, and smart buildings and homes that can increase energy efficiency."

Infographic: GSMA Intelligence

While 4G remains the world's dominant mobile technology, "5G is gaining pace." Companies of all sizes are increasing their research and development budgets to build products and services to utilize the fifth generation wireless technology that is expected to deliver speeds 100x faster than 4G. However, for these investments to produce positive results, the report correctly notes that "Governments and regulators must play their part to help propel 5G into commercial use by implementing policies that encourage advanced technologies (e.g. AI and IoT) to be applied across all economic sectors."

What do you think of the report's findings?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Looks at How Digital Health Technologies Are Impacting Healthcare in the US

According to a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU), "A fundamental question surrounding the US healthcare system is 'How do we improve overall health while reducing costs?' Health care spending in the US greatly exceeds that in other wealthy countries, but does not achieve better health outcomes. By 2030, an estimated 171m people in the US will suffer from a chronic disease. This fact, coupled with an aging population in need of greater health services signals the need for change."

Digital Health: Transformation and Innovation within the USA explains that "[a] promising response to this question has come in the form of the digital health transformation. The internet of things, artificial intelligence (AI), and wearable technology are a few examples of digital transformations that have great opportunities in healthcare, and they have already begun to disrupt the healthcare landscape."

The report encouragingly notes: "Digital innovation, though an overwhelming space and daunting to adopt, has the potential to drive significant positive changes through streamlined workflows, optimized systems, improved patient outcomes, reduced human error, increased transparency, and, of course, lowered costs." What is more, "Medical technology (medtech) companies should be prepared with the knowledge of how digital transformation may impact their business environment and the understanding of how to successfully bring new innovations to the market."

Under the title of "Modes of digital disruption: The technologies reshaping healthcare," the report "looks at how trending digital health technologies are impacting healthcare, and the outlook on the adoption of these technologies."

Medical Internet of Things (mIOT) applications to watch:

• Medical facility infrastructure and security
• Workflow tracking and optimization
• Medication compliance tracking
• Data recording (EHRs)
• Chronic condition management

"Impacted populations: Healthcare facilities and device manufacturers are already benefiting from the medical internet of things. Organizations can analyze processes at scale with mIoT to determine trends and improve efficiencies. Doctors are increasingly using mIoT to monitor patients with chronic diseases."

AI applications to watch:

• Patient diagnosis based on pattern recognition from large databases (genomic and symptom information)
• Early prediction of conditions likely to develop
• Assistance in image analysis for scans and slides (e.g. X-ray interpretation for radiologists, slide interpretation for pathologists)

"Impacted populations: AI stands to improve on how well physicians can predict health risk, come to diagnoses, and draw insights from large sets of data. Workflow optimization centered around AI is already being used to reduce inefficiencies, and the technology's predictive power may be able to speed up R&D for medtech manufacturers. AI will be a key way to analyse the massive amounts of clinical data generated by increasing use of wearable sensors. This analysis will enable deeper understanding of patients' disease states, and support physician's decision-making process when providing care. Improved outcomes for patients and reduced costs for providers will be among the largest benefits of this technology."

Wearable technology/Remote patient monitoring applications to watch:

• Activity monitors for sports and fitness
• Heart rate and diabetes monitoring
• Neurological disease monitoring to conduct large studies and track disease progression
• Post-discharge patient monitoring for treatment response
• Chronic condition management
• Patient health risk assessment from activity and biometrics monitoring
• Ingestible sensors for biomarker tracking and smart drug delivery

"Impacted populations: A component of the mIoT, wearable devices are capable of collecting and transmitting health data about the individuals wearing them. The growing elderly population will benefit heavily from this technology's adoption because physicians will be able to draw health insights from larger amounts of data than previously possible, and without the need for constant in-person visits. The same is true for people with chronic diseases. Their symptoms can vary immensely from day to day, making it difficult for doctors to make treatment decisions based off infrequent visits."

Telemedicine applications to watch:

• Medical specialties well-suited for telemedicine, e.g. radiology, psychiatry, dermatology, ophthalmology
• Follow-up doctor's visits
• Healthcare access for rural populations
• Remote chronic disease management
• Assisted living center support
• Preventative care support

"Impacted populations: Widespread adoption of telemedicine will be especially impactful for those unable to easily access a medical center. Major groups affected are those living in rural areas with a shortage of doctors, and the elderly who may be unable to travel for a clinician visit. The ease of visiting with a doctor via a phone or tablet may also lead to fewer appointments cancelled at the last minute."

Augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) applications to watch:

• Medical practitioner training
• Remote surgery
• Diagnosis support
• Mental health support tools for patients
• 3D patient rendering for improved surgery planning

"Impacted populations: VR and AR technologies will have the greatest impact on clinicians in the coming years. VR is already being used in some settings to train doctors by allowing them to practice operations in a realistic environment. AR gives doctors faster access to real-time information, aiding in diagnosis and treatment decisions. The technology can also be used to visualize patient organs and systems in 3D, a feature that will significantly improve the quality of surgery planning."

However, "challenges lie ahead for digital technology driven medtech innovation" including security, communication, regulation, and funding.

Based on my experiences of supporting and advising medtech companies, I concur that "[a]lthough we are in the midst of a transformative time for healthcare, it remains a challenge for emerging and established medtech players to keep up with increased competition and innovation from big tech organizations. The overlap amongst the different modes of digital disruption signals the importance of integration-friendly solutions. As the industry shifts into a more patient-centric and patient-owned environment it will be increasingly important for suppliers, providers, payers, and patients to embrace an end-to-end digital mindset. Key questions to consider along the way are:

• As digital healthcare evolves, what innovations give medtech a lasting edge?
• Is your company focused on the core areas for value creation?
• How scalable is your innovation?
• What organizations should you partner with to access the technologies and talent required for business model transformation?"

Moreover, "It is important to mention this transformation extends to well beyond the US – not just in developed markets, but also emerging ones. This raises key questions for medtech MNCs, such as:

• Are your company's innovations aligned with the needs of emerging markets?
• How much adaptation of your product to address the pockets and preferences of emerging markets is needed to successfully enter and capture the market?
• What are the key drivers and barriers of adoption of innovations in emerging markets?
• What does competition from innovative local players look like?"

Which digital health technologies do you think will provide the greatest impact on the healthcare ecosystem?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

5G Will Transform the Way People Live, Work, Play and Communicate in Sub-Saharan Africa

According to a report authored by GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA, a UK-based trade organization, "The world is on the cusp of the 5G era. By 2020, commercial 5G services will be available in at least 50 countries across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. The 2020s will see more widespread deployment and adoption of the technology around the world, including in Sub-Saharan Africa."

As explained by GSMA Intelligence presented in this website, "Building on insights from a survey of key local stakeholders, including policymakers, mobile operators and equipment vendors, this report establishes the outlook and expectations for the 5G era in Sub-Saharan Africa."

The survey covered six areas: network deployment; spectrum; use cases; business models and financials; policy and regulation; and collaboration and future outlook." Respondents to the survey included:

• Telecoms regulators from across the region;
• Mobile operators (group level and local operators) with a combined share of more than 75% of total connections in the region; and
• Equipment vendors with a combined share of more than 90% of the network infrastructure market in the region.

5G in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lay the Foundations presents the following key findings:

The transition to mobile broadband is underway

"By the end of 2019, there will be more mobile broadband connections (3G and 4G) than 2G connections in Sub-Saharan Africa. This reflects a growing shift from basic voice to data-centric services. Ongoing investments in 3G and 4G networks have taken mobile broadband coverage to around a quarter of the total population, while smartphone adoption has doubled over the last three years and now accounts for two in five mobile connections."

5G will be part of the future digital landscape, but mass adoption is not imminent

"5G in Sub-Saharan Africa is inevitable; it is a natural progression from previous technology generations. However, the 5G era is not imminent in most markets in the region as existing technologies are capable of supporting current use cases and demand for mobile internet connectivity. Around two-thirds of respondents to the survey for this report did not envisage commercial 5G services becoming available in their markets before 2025. That said, the time lag before large-scale 5G deployment could have positive implications for the region: it would allow the technology to mature and be fully tested in other markets. It would also allow economies of scale to be realized in 5G equipment and devices, potentially lowering costs for operators and consumers."

Market readiness is crucial to maximize value in the 5G era

"For all countries in the region, market readiness is necessary to determine the timing for the transition to 5G. This will help maximize value from 5G services for consumers, operators and the wider society. The GSMA 5G Market Readiness Index indicates that some countries are moving quickly towards a state of readiness, with 4G adoption approaching mass market and operators progressing with network modernization initiatives. By 2025, there will be commercial 5G services in at least seven markets, including Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, with 28 million 5G connections (equivalent to 3% of total mobile connections) between them."

Localized FWA will be a primary 5G use case across Sub-Saharan Africa

"With fixed broadband penetration typically below 2% across the region, 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) will be a primary 5G use case, particularly in the early stages of network deployment and adoption. The cost benefit of addressing the growing demand for enhanced connectivity from households and businesses with FWA – relative to greenfield FTTx deployment – makes it an attractive proposition. However, the FWA opportunity is not universal; rather, it is dependent on local conditions. Localized and targeted deployments, as opposed to ubiquitous rollouts, will be the predominant approach as operators balance the potential cost of requisite cell densification with affordability constraints for many consumers."

The enterprise segment will drive initial 5G uptake in Sub-Saharan Africa

"5G presents an opportunity for operators to better serve the enterprise market. Initial use cases will center on 5G FWA, to address challenges around access, cost and reliability of current connectivity services, such as fixed broadband and satellite. Beyond connectivity, 5G will be a key enabler of the Fourth Industrial Revolution or Industry 4.0 – a time when technology is seamlessly embedded within society and especially in commercial and industrial processes. In Sub-Saharan Africa, 5G can enable new and existing technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT), to have a transformative impact on business processes, helping drive productivity and efficiency. A clear, supportive strategy and forward-looking policies to prepare for the 5G era and attract the necessary investment and skills are essential to realizing the aspirations of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and to fully capture the social and economic benefits for the region."

The consumer segment will be a long-term play

"The consumer segment will be a long-term play as 5G adoption at the early stages of network deployment will be held back by a lack of affordable devices and immersive use cases, such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR). Device subsidy will be crucial to 5G adoption in the consumer segment, but initial focus will likely target customer premise equipment (CPE) for FWA to the home, given the predominance of prepaid subscriptions in the mobile segment. In the meantime, therefore, 4G will continue to deliver high-speed mobile broadband, supporting the numerous and increasing connectivity needs of citizens and the economy."

The mobile ecosystem should lay the foundations now

"Ahead of 5G network launches, operators and network equipment vendors in the region need to make plans to prepare existing network infrastructure for 5G, adopt cost-effective infrastructure deployment solutions, and develop a framework to manage the complexity of operating multiple networks (2G, 3G, 4G and 5G) simultaneously. Further next-generation network deployments and the first phases of 5G rollouts will require significant capital investment; mobile operators in the region will invest $60 billion in their networks between 2018 and 2025. A fifth of this will be on 5G infrastructure. Given the growing pressure on revenues and margins, operators, vendors and other ecosystem players will need to explore ways to ease the financial burden."

Policymakers should look to foster a pro-investment environment

"The 2020s will usher in the 5G era in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5G-related activities will become more widespread across the region from mid-way through the decade. Now is the time to begin to put in place the necessary building blocks to facilitate the transition to 5G. Governments and regulators need to consider market structures that foster a pro-investment and pro-innovation environment for the development of the 5G mobile ecosystem. Specifically, regulatory focus should be on four key areas – network deployment, network flexibility, spectrum access and regulatory costs – in order to bring 5G in particular, and next-generation connectivity more generally, to fruition."

During my trips to the region during the past few years, I can attest to the report's assertion that "[d]igital transformation is well underway in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is evidenced by the emergence of new digital services and applications transforming the way people live, work, play and communicate."

What is more, "The emerging digital landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa is shaped by demand- and supply-side factors, each with the potential for significant, long-term impact on the digital economy."

Source: GSMA Intelligence

What services and applications do you think will transform the way people live, work, play and communicate in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Smart Investment in Emerging Technologies Can Help Address the Challenges Faced by the Global Giving Sector

Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and internet of things (IoT) is having a profound effect on how businesses worldwide operate. However, less is known how these technologies are impacting the giving sector. A report produced by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) and supported financially by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation presents the key findings of a research program on the potential impact of ten emerging technologies in the giving sector. Venture into the future of giving: The potential of emerging technologies in the giving sector highlights ways that smart investment in emerging technologies can help address the challenges faced by the global giving sector.

The report argues that "Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies are transforming the development assistance and giving sectors, from using AI and machine learning to diagnose diseases to implementing drone-based humanitarian logistics. However, their potential impact on the giving process remains underappreciated to date."

Having served in leadership positions of various nonprofit organizations, I understand that "[w]ithin the giving sector, donors, intermediaries and implementing organizations operate in a complex global giving supply chain, which encompasses a wide variety of stakeholders including corporations, academic institutions, watchdogs and governments, among others. Each participant in the supply chain faces both unique challenges and challenges that are common across the sector. For the purposes of this report, we focus on three of the sector's most noteworthy shared challenges: 1) building and sustaining trust, 2) increasing efficiency, and 3) measuring and maximizing impact."

"There are ten key emerging technology applications," the report explains, "that have the potential to enhance the workings of the giving supply chain: big data, AI analytics, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), cryptocurrencies, blockchain payment infrastructure, the IoT, drones, smart contracts and impact tokens. All of these applications are powered by four core technologies: AI, virtual intelligence (VI), blockchain and the IoT."

Moreover, "These technologies can be applied to five key links in the giving supply chain: matching donors and recipients, motivating and informing giving, facilitating transactions, tracking outcomes and validating performance."

Below are the report's key concluding points:

To support donor and recipient matching, big data and AI are helping charitable organisations to understand more about the views, behaviors and opinions of current and future donors, and about trends in the giving sector. A key challenge is determining how to take advantage of the benefits of analytics in a way that does not impinge on privacy and is compliant with relevant regulations like the GDPR.

To motivate and inform giving, VR and AR are allowing donors to see the impact of their investments, overcoming the marketing and communications challenges faced by the sector in the past. A key challenge is the potential for misuse and manipulation when using a powerful tool to unlock empathy.

To facilitate transactions, blockchain and cryptocurrency can add a new rail to financial infrastructure, with tech companies using these facilities to reduce transactions costs.

To improve outcome tracking, sensors, drones and the IoT can be used to gather data that humans cannot, including on environmental and pollution challenges.

To validate performance, impact evaluation can be facilitated by smart contracts, which promote transparency and enable automated pay-outs when a social program reaches a performance threshold. This gives donors greater control over performance-related disbursements. Tokens can also help to monetize measures of impact and create new economic incentives for donors beyond tax exemptions. 

As I am continually learning how emerging technologies work, I appreciate the report's assertion that [w]hile no single technology can overcome the challenges inherent to the giving process, smart investment in appropriate solutions can ensure that all participants in the ecosystem make optimal use of their resources. The structured analysis of technologies undertaken in this study seeks to provide a guide for groups that are willing to experiment and invest to ensure that the sector's sizable contribution to economic and social development can be deepened and sustained in the years to come."

Although I agree with the report that smart investment in emerging technologies help address the challenges faced by the global giving sector, I am disappointed the report does not address the topic of cyber security. It is important for those stakeholders to understand the cyber threats that exist and have a system in place to keep their technologies secure from hackers. Not doing so will negate the value of any "smart investment."

Do you agree with the report's findings? Will smart investment in emerging technologies help address the challenges faced by the global giving sector?

Aaron Rose is an advisor to talented entrepreneurs and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

Driven by Developing Countries, the Number of Unique Mobile Subscribers Will Reach 5.9 Billion by 2025

According to a report. The Mobile Economy 2018, published by GSMA Intelligence, "The number of unique mobile subscribers will reach 5.9 billion by 2025, equivalent to 71% of the world’s population." Furthermore, "Growth will be driven by developing countries, particularly India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America."

The report further explains: "The speed of growth is slowing though, with most of the developed world approaching saturation. The more significant growth opportunity will lie in mobile internet – a market that will add 1.75 billion new users over the next eight years, reaching a milestone of 5 billion mobile internet users in 2025."

Importantly, "Mobile internet adoption will increasingly become the key metric by which to measure the reach and value created by the mobile industry, including its contribution to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It also contributes to developments in the wider digital ecosystem, as mobile internet users are the addressable market for e-commerce, fintech and a range of digitally delivered services and content."

On the topic of 5G, the report asserts, "A number of mobile 5G commercial launches are expected over the next three years in North America and major markets across Asia and Europe. China, the US and Japan will be the leading countries by 5G connections in 2025, while Europe as a whole will continue to make progress with 5G deployments. In total, these four economies will account for more than 70% of the 1.2 billion 5G connections expected globally by the end of the forecast period."

Moreover, "By 2025, two thirds of mobile connections (excluding cellular IoT) across the world will operate on high-speed networks, with 4G accounting for 53% of total mobile SIMs and 5G at 14%. To support customer migration and further drive consumer engagement in the digital era, mobile operators will invest $0.5 trillion in mobile capex worldwide between 2018 and 2020."

For those companies developing Internet of Things (IoT) products and solutions, they will appreciate the report's assertion that IoT "connections (cellular and non-cellular) will increase more than threefold worldwide between 2017 and 2025, reaching 25 billion." What is more, "While IoT is rapidly becoming a mainstream technology in some consumer markets such as consumer electronics and smart homes, the industrial IoT segment is still in its infancy – but is set to be the largest source of connections growth going forward. Globally, the industrial connections base will overtake consumer IoT connections in 2023."

Investors and entrepreneurs alike will rejoice knowing that "growth in IoT will be driven by a proliferation of uses cases for smart homes, cities, buildings and enterprises, as well as rising investor financing and a supportive ecosystem for innovation.

With respect to mobile contributing to economic growth and addressing social challenges:

In 2017, mobile technologies and services generated 4.5% of GDP globally, a contribution that amounted to $3.6 trillion of economic value added. By 2022, this contribution will reach $4.6 trillion, or 5% of GDP, as countries around the globe increasingly benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services and M2M/IoT solutions. In 2017, the wider mobile ecosystem also supported a total of 29 million jobs (directly and indirectly) and made a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector, with almost $500 billion raised through general taxation and $25 billion through mobile spectrum auctions.

As well as contributing to economic growth, mobile technology is increasingly used for disaster preparedness and response, and to help address the challenges of access, cost and quality of service in key industries, including healthcare, agriculture, utilities, education and financial services. Two years into the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the mobile industry is increasing its impact across all the 17 SDGs as a result of wider mobile reach and better networks. There is also growing adoption of mobile-based tools and solutions that aim to spur the digitization of systems, processes and interactions across a number of industries, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Agriculture and healthcare are notable examples.

Regarding the investment side of the mobile technology industry, "Globally, private equity companies, venture-capital firms and corporates have invested $1.2 trillion over the last five years to finance tech start-ups and emerging companies in a range of sectors, with an all-time record level of financing in 2017. This continues to support innovation and development in technology areas such as IoT, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), networks, autonomous vehicles and the wider area of artificial intelligence (AI)."

Knowing that entrepreneurs, irrespective of where they reside, are always in need of capital as well collaborative partners to scale their business, I appreciate that the report says "recent trends and initiatives also show increasing corporate venture capital (CVC) activity among operators in both developed and developing markets, to drive innovation and in some cases moves into new business lines such as media, content and fintech. Across Asia Pacific and Africa, collaboration between mobile operators and start-ups is gaining momentum as operators have the scale and reach that start-ups lack, while start-ups have the local innovation that operators need."

Addressing the important topic of artificial intelligence, I support the assertion that "there is widespread recognition that AI will be key to future business and digital transformation as well as driving increasingly autonomous and intelligent networks and improving the customer experience through better understanding of customer behavior."

Finally, the report points out that "as emerging technologies – including AI, IoT and advanced data analytics – converge, 5G could play an enabling role in realizing their full potential. For example, IoT will require both more pervasive intelligence and a ubiquitous connectivity layer to allow devices to communicate and to support the provision of data analytics and intelligence on-demand. Looking ahead, we expect this convergence to intensify, with AI increasingly integrated into a growing number of IoT applications and services as well as networks."

Inforgraphic: GSMA Intelligence

How are you positioning your business to take advantage of emerging technologies such as IoT, AR, VR or AI?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

Artificial Intelligence is the Epicenter of Web 3.0

A friend recently noted that the current version of internet, which is often referred as Web 2.0, has matured. Such maturity has led to a stagnation in the production of innovative products and services by startups and large corporations alike. Following his observation, which I happen to agree with, he asked, "What is next for the internet?"

In an article published by the New York Times in 2006, John Markoff wrote, "From the billions of documents that form the World Wide Web and the links that weave them together, computer scientists and a growing collection of start-up companies are finding new ways to mine human intelligence."

The goal of the computer scientists, says Mr. Markoff, "is to add a layer of meaning on top of the existing Web that would make it less of a catalog and more of a guide — and even provide the foundation for systems that can reason in a human fashion. That level of artificial intelligence, with machines doing the thinking instead of simply following commands, has eluded researchers for more than half a century."

"Referred to as Web 3.0," notes Mr. Markoff, "the effort is in its infancy, and the very idea has given rise to skeptics who have called it an unobtainable vision. But the underlying technologies are rapidly gaining adherents, at big companies like I.B.M. and Google as well as small ones. Their projects often center on simple, practical uses, from producing vacation recommendations to predicting the next hit song."

11 years later, The Economist published an article about the race to dominate artificial intelligence (AI). "An exponential increase in the availability of digital data, the force of computing power and the brilliance of algorithms has fueled excitement about this formerly obscure corner of computer science," the article explains. "The West's largest tech firms, including Alphabet (Google's parent), Amazon, Apple, Facebook, IBM and Microsoft are investing huge sums to develop their AI capabilities, as are their counterparts in China. Although it is difficult to separate tech firms' investments in AI from other kinds, so far in 2017 companies globally have completed around $21.3bn in mergers and acquisitions related to AI, according to PitchBook, a data provider, or around 26 times more than in 2015."

I agree with the assertion that "over the next several years, large tech firms are going to go head-to-head in three ways. They will continue to compete for talent to help train their corporate 'brains'; they will try to apply machine learning to their existing businesses more effectively than rivals; and they will try to create new profit centers with the help of AI."

The Dec. 7, 2017 article continues to explain how AI will be used in machine learning, autonomous driving, augmented reality (AR).

In addition, the article importantly notes:

Artificial intelligence is also being applied in the corporate world. David Kenny, the boss of Watson, IBM’s AI platform, predicts that there will be "two AIs": companies that profit from offering AI-infused services to consumers and others which offer them to businesses. In practice, the two worlds meet because of the tech giants' cloud-computing arms. Providers are competing to use AI as a way to differentiate their offerings and lock in customers. The three largest—Amazon Web Services, Microsoft’s Azure and Google Cloud—offer application-programming interfaces (APIs) that provide machine-learning capabilities to other companies. Microsoft's cloud offering, Azure, for example, helped Uber build a verification tool that asks drivers to take a selfie to confirm their identities when they work. Google Cloud offers a "jobs API," which helps companies match jobseekers with the best positions.

As for augmented reality, "Mobile apps like Snap, a messaging app, and the game Pokémon Go are early examples of AR. But AR could more radically transform people's relationship with the internet, so that they consume digital information not from a small screen but via an ambient, ever-present experience. AR devices will offer portable AI capabilities, such as simultaneous translation and facial recognition."

We have embarked upon the Web 3.0. What are your predictions for the application of artificial intelligence?

Aaron Rose is an advisor to talented entrepreneurs and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

How Is Technology Changing Our Life and Work?

"Better life breakthroughs" is a content series produced by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) and sponsored by Standard Chartered Private Bank that aims to "analyse innovations that have the capacity to extend and enrich life, create new experiences and improve society in general." The EIU explains that "the first report in the series examined technology advances that are creating new investment opportunities for high net worth investors. The second report explores how the work environment may change under the combined impact of technology advances, shifts in workforce demographics and attitudes, and new thinking on workplace organisation and design." This post focuses on the second report, Labour pains: coming shifts in the world of work, which is available in both English and 简体中文.

Drawing on desk research and in-depth interviews with individuals whose job it is to think deeply about modes and places of work; namely, futurists, architects, technologists, entrepreneurs and corporate executives, The EIU report explores how the work environment may change under the combined impact of technology advances, shifts in workforce demographics and attitudes, and new thinking on workplace organisation and design.

The report's conclusions are listed below in its entirety:

• Managing tomorrow's workforce will be a balancing act. Employers will go out of their way to accommodate the skilled talent – including on-demand workers – they need, for example by seeking to make the workplace a more pleasurable environment, as well as providing green spaces and other elements that contribute to employee health and well-being, all in the expectation of greater innovation and productivity. These may not result, however, if employers fail to address other challenges that are certain to arise, including that of strains developing between permanent and on-demand staff.
• New tensions will need to be smoothed. To try and ensure that corporate culture doesn't suffer from the presence of a less-tethered category of talent, employers will look to equalize the treatment of both categories of worker to the greatest extent possible. Full-time employees, however, will worry about their longevity, particularly if their contract colleagues possess more advanced technology skills. The former are also likely to resent some of the flexibility enjoyed by on-demand workers, for example when it comes to remote working opportunities.
• The work-leisure balance is likely to shift back again. Some experts also worry that too pleasurable a work environment will become detrimental to productivity, if protective bubbles form that lead to insularity from their customers. There will be a backlash against leisure and fun amongst some employers if productivity and innovation gains fail to materialize.
• Some new technologies will be transformative, and also painful. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based automation, intelligent sensors and augmented reality, among other technologies, will give both employers and employees capabilities to operate in new ways. Productivity, creativity and safety should all benefit, but deft change management will be required, and employee worries about displacement by technology will be an ever-present source of workplace tension. New roles will open up for employees, some of which will emphasize their unique human abilities in communication, interaction and creative thinking.
• Privacy will become a relic of the past. The future ubiquity of networked sensors and other emergent technologies means that privacy will be severely diminished in tomorrow's workplace. Sensors, for example, will enable much closer monitoring of employee performance. Even skilled, in-demand workers will recognize diminished privacy in the workplace as a necessary trade-off. Separately, tougher legal requirements for protecting individuals data will force companies to modernize the data practices used by all employees.
• Work innovation will not be confined to technology companies. The technology sector is today the focus of most experimentation with new modes of working and workspace design. However, other sectors – notably financial services, healthcare, retail and logistics – are experimenting no less actively with technologies likely to shape work in the future, including artificial intelligence, networked sensors, augmented reality (AR) and others. As the boundaries between the technology and other sectors fade, the sources of work innovation in the future are likely to be more varied.

Asked to name the technologies that will do most to change work in the next decade, the experts interviewed all point to AI, networked sensors and augmented reality above others.

Artificial Intelligence 

• AI capabilities will take machine translation to new levels, having conquered shortcomings in recognizing context and nuance in language. The advantages of multi-lingualism will not disappear but may recede in some support roles, such as customer service.
• AI virtual agents will manage the IT service desk and will eventually become the principal interface between IT and technology end-users, using machine-learning capabilities to resolve issues on the spot. AI bots will also perform many more admin functions in HR, accounting and elsewhere in the back-office.

Networked sensors

• Energy companies will monitor the health indicators of engineers working on hazardous sites with the help of sensors embedded in clothing, wireless devices, work tools and installed assets. Fleet managers will do the same for drivers via sensors embedded in these as well as vehicle seats and other components.

Augmented reality

• Marketers and advertisers wearing AR-capable eyeglasses will be a common sight in offices as they visualize creative ads and other content they are designing for clients.
• Mobile IT engineers will roam the floors wearing headsets enabling the visualization of networks schematics as they install new hardware or configure new systems.
• Shop floor workers will follow instructions appearing in their eyewear about how to assemble or repair machinery, and the specific types and sizes of tools and parts to use.

Tactile internet

• Surgeons will be able to perform surgery on patients, technicians to repair appliances for customers, and designers to manipulate models for clients, from distant locations thanks to advances in haptics, which create the sense of touch. The tactile internet will also leverage advances in AR and IoT sensors, as well as the advent of 5G mobile technology, which will enable the instantaneous response of remote machines to human movements.

In its conclusion, the reports says,

It is not difficult to envision scenarios in which companies in traditional industries become leaders in introducing new ways of working. After all, the tech industry may be the source of ground-breaking new technologies such as networked sensors and AI, but it is "old-world" industries that are taking the lead in deploying them. With the possible exception of driverless cars, the earliest pilots of AI have been taking place in the financial sector, especially investment management, and in healthcare. AI already has a home in the medical sector, where machine-learning software powers advanced diagnostics tools used by doctors, and self-learning robots are being piloted in supporting roles in the operating theater. Energy companies, consumer goods manufacturers, logistics firms and engineering firms are making widescale use of networked sensors today, some of them in combination with AI and AR.

Moreover, "Given the growing influence of smaller fintech, health-tech and energy-tech start-ups on their respective industries, we should expect to see experiments in workplace innovation expand well beyond the technology sector in the not-distant future."

Lastly, The EIU produced a video where Jeanne Meister, founding partner of Future Workplace and Ray Yuen, principal and Asia workplace design leader of Woods Bagot, respond to an important question: how will the workforce and workplace change in the coming years?



How is technology changing your life and work?

Aaron Rose is an advisor to talented entrepreneurs and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

App Store Consumer Spend to Exceed $100 Billion in 2020, Says App Annie

"Apps have become the primary way we engage with media, brands and ultimately with each other. They are the digital interface through which we live, work and play," App Annie explains in a new report that looks into the future of the mobile app economy.

According to the San Francisco, Calif.-based business intelligence company and analyst firm, "the strategic importance of the app market spans well beyond gaming and media industries. Now all companies need to view themselves as app publishers irrespective of their mobile strategy. Apps drive engagement and brand loyalty and can be monetized directly through app stores, advertising, commerce or any combination of the above."

The report presents five key findings:

1. Global mobile app store gross revenue will grow to $51 billion in 2016 and exceed $101 billion in 2020. Growth will be largely driven by two factors: strong app adoption in developing economies across the globe and mobile apps' ability to capture greater wallet share in mature economies;
2. Global mobile app store downloads will reach 284 billion in 2020, as the global installed base more than doubles between 2015 and 2020. Much of the growth will be driven by smartphone adoption in emerging markets;
3. Mature markets like the United States are in the midst of a shift from a download growth phase to one that is characterized by strong growth in app usage and resulting revenue expansion;
4. The iOS App Store will retain gross revenue leadership until 2017, at which point the combination of Google Play and third-party Android store revenue will surpass it due to the wider proliferation of Android devices; and
5. While games revenue will dominate through the forecast period, revenue for apps excluding games will exceed 2015 levels more than 4x by 2020, accounting for over 25% of all app store spend. Time spent in apps from categories like Social, Shopping and Transportation strongly suggests that advertising and commerce will form a significant proportion of economic activity in the app ecosystem beyond the $101 billion we are projecting in store sales.

Elaborating on the first key finding above, the report says:

As apps deliver more value to users and device penetration rises, we forecast consumer spend on app stores (gross app revenue) to grow by 24% to $50.9 billion in 2016 and reach $101.1 billion in 2020. And even beyond the store revenue for mobile apps included in this report, there will be explosive growth in mobile commerce and advertising revenue. There will also be a growing contribution from apps as they expand into new platforms, namely wearables, TVs, virtual and augmented reality (VR and AR), home Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive.

Emerging markets will produce significant revenue from apps. For example, according to an App Annie blog post regarding its report, "China will surpass the U.S. in terms of total revenue from app stores by the first half of 2016, having surpassed it in downloads in early 2015."

Furthermore, "Revenue in the Americas and EMEA will nearly double over the next five years from 2016 levels, but both will be outpaced by the growth in APAC. We forecast that APAC will grow to $57.5 billion in 2020 with China driving more than half the revenue in the region by the end of the forecast period."

A final point worth mentioning from the report: "Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, China and especially India are poised for some of the strongest growth over the next five years. In the years ahead, billions of new smartphone owners in these emerging markets will join the app ecosystem. This opens up a huge opportunity for developers to target unmet needs and create whole new markets."

Aaron Rose serves as President and CEO of ROI3, Inc., a Seattle, Wash.-based company that empowers people in emerging economies through innovative, technology-based solutions. He is also the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.