Geopolitical Shocks and Climate Change Will Remain Biggest Risks in 2025, Says EIU Report

"Hopes that the world will one day return to normal have been continually dashed since the covid-19 pandemic, and 2025 will be no different," the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) says in its Industry outlook 2025 report that explores the challenges, opportunities and trends to watch in the following six industries: energy, financial services, consumer goods and retailing, technology, automotive, and healthcare. The report further says: "Although working and travel patterns are normalizing, the economic and political outlook remains uncertain. EIU forecasts that real GDP will grow by a subdued 2.6% in 2025, similar to 2024 but slower than the average for the ten years before the pandemic." What is more, "The US economy will slow as labor markets tighten, but China's will accelerate slightly, amid stimulus and reviving trade. Those of the EU and Japan will also tick up, but only smaller developing markets such as India will deliver significant growth."

Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers will force more shifts in supply chains, amid subdued business growth. The EIU also presents the following predictions for 2025:

• Inflation is expected to ease, allowing for further monetary easing.
• Prices for agricultural and energy commodities will fall, but those for industrial raw materials will rise.
• Geopolitical risks will persist amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, while rising trade barriers between the EU, the US and China will reshape supply chains.
• Climate change will increase geopolitical tensions. National climate pledges will be updated at COP30 in November 2025, but much will depend on US leadership.
• Investment in technology, especially artificial intelligence (AI), will remain strong, but tech companies will face regulatory pressures, investor impatience and scrutiny over energy usage.

According to the EIU, "Falling inflation will allow monetary easing to continue. We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points during 2025. We also expect prices for agricultural commodities and industrial raw materials to move in different directions in 2025- 26. Although agricultural prices will continue to trend downwards, prices for industrial raw materials will rise again, particularly for base metals that benefit from the green transition. As for energy commodities, prices will fall on average, but remain at risk from political shocks."

The UK-based company provides the following key global forecasts for each sector covered by its report:

• Energy: Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face geopolitical risks amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China.
• Financial services: Falling interest rates will weigh on bank profit margins, leading to lower dividend payouts, but the Basel III endgame will be eased or delayed further.
• Consumer goods and retailing: Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2%, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further, particularly for high-volume low-price Asian retailers such as Shein and Temu.
• Technology: More countries will start using satellite internet, but use cases will be limited to enterprise clients—military and maritime. Amazon's Kuiper will disrupt the market duopoly of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb.
• Automotive: After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. We forecast that sales of new cars will rise by 2%, commercial vehicles by 4% and electric vehicles by 16%.
• Healthcare: Global healthcare spending will outpace inflation, growing by 1.9% in real terms. The World Health Organization will make climate change the focus of its 14th four-year general program, which starts in 2025.

Companies and investors alike should take note that geopolitical shocks and climate change will remain the biggest risks in 2025. The EIU's "baseline forecast assumes that another large-scale war will not break out in Asia or the Middle East. However, the continued threat of geopolitical conflict, in addition to the continuing war in Ukraine, will lead to economic reconfiguration and policy divergence." Moreover, "The EU and the US are already raising barriers against Chinese exports in areas from  automotive and technology to healthcare. Chinese retaliation is likely to intensify in 2025 as rival blocs emerge across the world. These trends," according to the report's authors, "will reshape supply chains over 2025, and could upend our forecast of falling commodity prices and inflation."

Regarding climate change and how efforts to mitigate it will play in these political rifts, the report notes that "At COP30 in November 2025 governments are due to update their national climate pledges (NDCs), but much will depend on US leadership. The debate over environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting will intensify as regulations enforcing disclosure come into effect in the EU and elsewhere." In addition, "EU climate regulations, due to come into force from 2026, will also have an international impact on trade by forcing multinational companies to monitor their supply chains."

While investment in technology, particularly AI, will be strong as projects gather pace, "technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny." I agree with the EIU that "Companies will need to navigate these new requirements, while also trying to reconfigure their supply chains and seek out areas of growth."

What challenges, opportunities and trends are you watching as we celebrate the beginning of 2025?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Growth Prospects, Risks and Trends in Six Critical Sectors in 2024

The past few years have been turbulent for most companies as the pandemic, soaring commodity prices, high interest rates and political disruption resulted in profits for many and bankruptcy for some. A report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) asks: Will conditions stabilize in 2024?

EIU's report provides growth prospects, risks and trends facing six critical sectors in the coming year, as inflation eases but geopolitical tensions remain high. The report argues that the biggest challenge facing businesses next year will be climate change and looks at how experimentation with artificial intelligence will give way to rapid adoption, changing corporate strategies and the nature of work.

Key findings include:

• Climate change will drive demand in sectors relating to mitigation and adaptation. Insurers, companies and governments will struggle to price in the increasing risks.
• EU and US regulations on environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting will push companies to scrutinize their operations and supply chains. However, skepticism about ESG will harden in the US ahead of November’s presidential elections.
• Corporate concerns over taxation will increase as the OECD introduces its global minimum tax rate and individual governments try to reduce budget deficits and national debt levels.
• Geopolitical tensions and wars will complicate government and corporate responses to all of the above. Investment in supply chains, particularly for technology and the energy transition, will adapt to minimize political risk.
• Generative artificial intelligence will disrupt a few sectors, but most companies will find ways to use AI to increase productivity.

The report also provides key global forecasts for each sector covered:

• Automotive: The automotive industry will face another subdued year in 2024, weighed down by slow consumer spending, high interest rates and disruption to supply chains due to geopolitical tensions. The only bright spot will be the electric vehicles market, with sales expected to soar by 21% to 14.9 million unit as governments and consumers try to mitigate the worsening effects of climate change. The report notes that established carmakers will have to fight hard to hold off competition from China.
• Consumer goods and retail: A slowdown in inflation will bolster retail volume growth by 6.7% in US dollar terms and 2% in volume terms in 2024. However, reduced savings and high food prices, worsened by the effects of climate change, will act as dampeners. The EIU also points out that high food prices will continue to cause problems in Asia.
• Energy: Global energy consumption will grow by 1.8% in 2024, largely driven by strong demand in Asia. Despite still-high prices and unsolved supply chain disruptions, demand for fossil fuels will reach record levels, but demand for renewable energy will rise by 11%.
• Finance: High interest rates will determine the success or failure of almost every part of the financial services sector in 2024. Though painful for borrowers, banks will enjoy strong net interest margins margins and revenue flows until margins begin to narrow mildly in late 2024. Property firms and funds, however, will suffer.
• Healthcare: Healthcare spending will rise by 2% in real US-dollar terms, following two years of decline, as inflation eases. However, resources will remain constrained as governments try to bring down fiscal deficits and public debt levels.
• Telecoms and technology: Geopolitics will continue to affect technology in 2024. The tech battle between the US and China will persist in areas including artificial intelligence (AI), chips and quantum technologies. AI will continue to develop, particularly generative AI, but will encounter challenges from new regulations in the EU and other major jurisdictions, as well as complications from US-China tensions.

I appreciate how the annual industry outlook provides businesses with foresight of the critical global trends and threats that will affect their sector 2024. Which trends and threats are you watching in the coming year?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Challenges, Opportunities and Trends to Watch in Seven Sectors in 2023

"The continuing pandemic, the war in Ukraine and high inflation have forced many companies to scale back their forecasts" in 2022, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) notes. Will 2023 will be any better?

The 12th edition of the EIU's annual report forecasts growth and key risks in seven business sectors for 2023, as the war in Ukraine pushes up commodity prices and the cost of living. The report argues that the war has disrupted the recovery from the covid-19 pandemic, and businesses now face increased risks as economies slow or tip into recession, particularly in Europe.

The EIU's report also provides key global forecasts for each of the seven industries:

• Global sales of new vehicles will be flat in 2023, but sales of electric vehicles will rise by 25% to 10.7m units.
• In 2023 retail growth volumes will be respectable at 4.9% in US-dollar terms, which will mainly reflect high inflation. In real terms, global sales will slow or fall in most markets.
• Global energy consumption will rise by just 1.3% as the global economy slows. The energy crisis will force some countries to increase their use of coal or rethink plans to phase out nuclear power.
• Weakening economic output and rising interest rates will lead to more difficult conditions for banks, insurers and fund managers. Formerly fast-growing fintech companies will be hit by the capital-market crunch.
• Global healthcare spending will rise by 4.9% year on year in US-dollar terms, which will mask falling investment in real terms, as countries struggle to cope with continued demand.
• The metaverse will not become a mass-market in 2023, but this will not stop heavy investment into this technology. The drive to standardization and the battle with web3 will be at the forefront.
• International tourism arrivals will rise by 30% as China slowly loosens its covid-19 restrictions. This will follow 60% growth in 2022, but will still leave total arrivals below 2019 levels.

The EIU also presents the following key forecasts for each industry:

Automotive outlook 2023: Bright spots amid stalling growth

• 
  The automotive industry will remain vulnerable to global headwinds in 2023 including the energy crisis, slower global demand and continued supply-chain problems.
• Global new-vehicles sales will remain flat in 2023: new-car sales will rise by 0.9% and new commercial vehicle (CV) sales will fall by 1.3%.
• Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will be the only bright spot, growing by 25%, but governments will restructure their incentive schemes.
• Governments' focus will turn to charging networks, which are inadequate to meet the expanding EV fleet.
• Autonomous vehicles will take a leap forward, as UN regulators lift their speed limit.

Consumer goods and retail outlook 2023: Retailers respond to pricing pressures

• 
  Inflation will push up global retail sales by a robust 5% in US-dollar terms in 2023, but the lower volume of sales and surging costs will weaken retailers' profits.
• The rollout of automation technologies will offer opportunities to limit wage growth, which means that retail employment is unlikely to return to 2019 levels.
• Online sales growth will slow, but the online share of retail will edge up to about 14% of global retail sales.
• Inflation-wary consumers will prefer to shop at discount stores, helping these retailers to increase their market shares.
• The economic slowdown in China, caused in part by its zero-covid strategy, will mean fresh challenges for global luxury brands already affected by the loss of Chinese tourists.

Energy outlook 2023: Surviving the energy crisis

• 
  Global energy consumption will grow by only 1.3% in 2023 amid a slowing economy.
• Despite decarbonization targets, coal consumption will grow marginally to compensate for gaps in gas supplies.
• More extreme weather events will force many countries to fall back on fossil fuels, delaying the energy transition.
• Renewable energy consumption will surge by about 11%, with Asia leading the way, but investment will weaken.
• The energy crisis will prompt some governments to backtrack on efforts to phase out the use of nuclear power.

Finance outlook 2023: A new test for financial stability

• 
  Weakening economic output and rising interest rates will lead to more difficult conditions for banks, insurers and fund managers in 2023 than in the past two years.
• The impact will be particularly acute in North America and Europe, where governments will offer support. The environment will be tough in Asia as well, although policy rates will rise by less.
• Heavily indebted developing countries will find it harder to refinance foreign debt, driving some to default or require rescues to avoid it. However, the International Monetary Fund will continue its lenient treatment of economies requiring its financing programs.
• The current capital-market crunch will hobble a wide variety of loss-making fintech challengers that sought to outflank incumbents in banking, payments and other activities.

Healthcare outlook 2023: The aftermath of the pandemic

• 
  Healthcare spending will fall in 2023 in real terms, given high inflation and slow economic growth, forcing difficult decisions on how to provide care.
• Digitalization of the healthcare system will continue, but the use of health data will come under stricter regulation in the US, Europe and China.
• Patent cliffs for key drugs and measures to control pharmaceutical pricing in the US, India and elsewhere will force some major pharma companies to spur growth through deals.
• Supply-chain disruptions will continue to push up drugmakers' costs, despite investment in more localized pharmaceutical production.

Technology and telecoms outlook 2023: The battle for digital supremacy

• 
  The metaverse will not become mass-market in 2023, but this will not stop heavy investment in the technology. The drive to standardization and the battle with web3 will be at the forefront.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to develop, after several breakthroughs in 2022, but will encounter challenges from new regulations in key jurisdictions.
• Semiconductors will continue to be a geopolitical tool between the US and China, involving many other countries. Some companies producing the most advanced products and equipment will benefit.
• Asian telecommunications companies will continue to look for consolidation in 2023. Mobile markets with four or more mobile network operators, such as Sri Lanka, Japan and India, are the most likely to secure deals.

Tourism outlook 2023: Turbulence in the travel industry

• 
  Global tourism arrivals will rise by 30% in 2023, following 60% growth in 2022, but they will still not return to pre-pandemic levels.
• The economic downturn, sanctions on Russia and, above all, China’s zero-covid strategy will be among the factors weighing on the industry.
• Hotels, restaurants and airports will struggle to cope with labor shortages, wage demands, and high food and energy prices.
• Even so, international airlines are expected to return to profitability, benefiting from continued pent-up demand.
• The impact of climate change on the industry will become more apparent, with high temperatures, water shortages and floods forcing tourism destinations to take action.

Useful for companies developing their global business strategy for the coming year, the report presents the following macroeconomic key points:

• The war in Ukraine, combined with lockdowns in China, has exacerbated supply-chain disruptions and pushed up global inflation, forcing EIU to downgrade its forecasts for economic growth in 2023.
• Many governments, particularly in Europe, will be forced to scale back investment in public services, including healthcare, in order to protect households and businesses from the effects of higher prices.
• While some businesses (particularly in commodities sectors) will benefit from high prices, many will be hit by weak demand and high input costs, particularly for energy.
• Profitability will be squeezed, while corporate investment will slow amid rising interest rates.
• However, some companies (notably in pharmaceuticals, technology and retailing) will take advantage of lower stock-market valuations, bankruptcies and government incentives to snap up strategic assets and position themselves for an eventual upturn.

"Amid all this gloom," the EIU encouragingly says "there will be areas of opportunity." Taking the EV market as an example, "online retail sales and tourism will continue to deliver strong growth, particularly in Asia and the Middle East," the report notes. "Innovations—from the metaverse to automated vehicles and data analytics (notably in healthcare)—will attract investment, with some companies also seizing on chances offered by volatile financial markets." I concur that "It will not be an easy year, but it could be a transformative one."

Lastly, The Economist produced a video that looks into which stories may be worth watching in the coming year.

What will you be watching in 2023?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

How to Reduce Africa's Reliance on Commodities

"Despite being home to 17% of the world's population, Africa is an underinvested market," a newsletter published by Morgan Stanley, a financial services firm, says. The newsletter also points out that "72% of investors surveyed do not currently invest there. We believe that despite near-term challenges, the continent offers compelling long-term opportunities vis-à-vis private markets and infrastructure."

Moreover, "Africa's median age, at 19.7, is considerably lower than those of Asia and South America, at 32.0 and 32.1, respectively. Furthermore, according to the World Economic Forum, Africa is expected to have the world's largest working-age population by 2034. The expected increase in the working-age population will likely promote middle class growth, building on trends already in place."

As an investor and entrepreneur, I appreciate how these statistics represent future opportunities. However, as an advisor to several officials representing African nations, I wish these leaders understood the importance of these statistics and the opportunity that exists for the citizens they represent. In my conversations with African government officials, I am often asked for my opinion on how to attract foreign direct investment to grow their private sector. While I strongly advocate for establishing policies and making investments to build a thriving digital economy in Africa, these officials mistakenly focus our conversation on how to increase their overdependence on raw materials and commodities such as minerals, oil, gas, and lumber.

Even The Economist notes that "many African economies have relied too much on raw materials for too long." The article further explains that "The UN defines a country as dependent on commodities if they are more than three-fifths of its physical exports. Fully 83% of African countries meet that threshold, up from 77% a decade ago. Some depend on produce such as tea, but most rely on mining or on pumping oil. When commodities crashed in 2015, foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth tumbled and have yet to fully recover."

The article importantly adds: "Broad averages obscure some of the progress that has been made to diversify economies. Over the past decade resources have become less important to GDP. The share of commodities in goods exports from the continent as a whole has fallen, too. And in countries such as Botswana and Malawi, services have grown strongly. Even manufacturing is rebounding."

However, "Africa has a long way to go if it is to break free of the resource curse. In countries rich in diamonds or oil, political power can be a license to loot. So unscrupulous folk are tempted to grab and hang on to it by any means available. Resource-rich countries are more likely to suffer dictatorships, and also tend to have more and longer civil wars."

Building a thriving economy while strengthening government institutions with better transparency and will require investments in education and infrastructure. Using Sierra Leone as an example, The Economist says the west Africa nation "now spends about 21% of its budget on education, up from 13% in 2017. As a result, more youngsters are passing their final exams than ever before. Mining began in Sierra Leone about a century ago. 'If we had invested in humans for a hundred years,' sighs David Moinina Sengeh, the education minister, 'we would be in a much better place today.'"

While I agree with the authors of Morgan Stanley's newsletter that many investors are missing out on lucrative opportunities in Africa, there is evidence this is changing. As reflected in the chart at the top of this post, African startups raised $4.4 billion in 2021, which was more than 2.5 times the amount raised in the previous year, according to "Africa: The Big Deal," a website managed by Max Cuvellier and Maxime Bayen.

With respect to specific sectors, fintech startups raised $2.3 billion from investors last year (see chart below). While this sector captured 53% of funds raised, other key sectors such as energy, retail, healthcare, education, and logistics and transportation are also on the rise.

I do not completely believe the notion that institutional investors in America or Europe are investing in African startups because they see the market as a great investment opportunity. Their investment is a result of chasing higher yields since the average junk-bond yields in America and Europe are 5.1% and 3.3%, respectively, well below inflation. And while there is good reason to cheer the recent increases in investments on the continent and the revenues some of these startups are reporting, I am still waiting for announcements of profitability and successful exits through an initial public offering or acquisition. Nevertheless, as someone who has supported tech startups in Africa for over 20 years, I am optimistic that the trend in the number of investors, amount raised, and overall number of startups on the continent will continue to grow for years to come.

I look forward to future conversations with government leaders in Africa on how to reduce their reliance on commodities by investing in education and infrastructure. Such investments will only help their growing working-age population enjoy the fruits of a middle-class lifestyle.

What opportunities and risks are you seeing in Africa's startup ecosystem?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

2022 Will (Hopefully) Be a Year of Recovery and Renewal for Economies and Businesses Affected by Covid-19

"2021 was supposed to be a year of recovery for economies and businesses that had been affected by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic," according to The Economist Intelligence Unit's annual report that examines the opportunities and challenges ahead for seven sectors of the global economy: automotive; consumer goods and retailing; energy; financial services; healthcare and pharmaceuticals; technology and telecoms; and tourism. "However, it has not been a straightforward rebound. Although coronavirus vaccines allowed many countries to ease lockdowns and begin a recovery, cases remained stubbornly high, albeit with an improved recovery rate. International borders remained either shut or subject to cumbersome testing requirements. One knock-on effect was supply-chain disruptions that hampered companies' ability to meet consumer demand, pushing up prices. Many of these problems will persist into 2022."

Businesses operating in these seven sectors should note that "[g]rowth prospects for all these sectors in 2022 will depend on their respective base levels. Some sectors—notably, telecoms and pharmaceuticals—thrived during the pandemic, but will need to navigate evolving consumer demands, as well as increased competition and regulation going forwards. Some sectors—notably, automotive and tourism—suffered slumps and will struggle to deal with the aftermath. For the remainder, the situation and outlook remain mixed, with companies pushing against headwinds to reach areas of opportunity."

The report presents the following key forecasts:

• Supply-chain disruption will make it harder for manufacturers and retailers to meet recovering demand, dampening sales forecasts for both consumer goods and automotive.
• High prices will push up interest rates, which could raise bad debt levels and dampen demand. However, some consumer companies and banks will turn higher prices to their advantage.
• New technologies - both digital and non-digital - will offer new opportunities, but will also attract more attention from regulators keen to ensure a level playing field. Health apps will be among those affected.
• Companies will need to prepare for changes in tax regulation, following a global deal to set a minimum corporate tax rate. Although this legislation may be derailed, efforts to collect taxes are increasing.
• Amid efforts to combat climate change, companies will come under more pressure to cut emissions and meet more standardized reporting requirements. This will affect their investment strategies, particularly in the oil and coal sectors.

In addition, below are the key forecasts as they relate to each of the aforementioned seven sectors of the global economy:

Automotive in 2022: back to near-normal

• Global sales of new vehicles will rise by 7.5% in 2022, taking them back past 2019 levels. The recovery will be led by Asia and North America.
• Many vehicle makers will still struggle to meet recovering demand amid continuing supply-chain disruptions.
• Global sales of new electric vehicles (EVs) will continue to soar, rising by 51%. New emissions rules will force carmakers to make far-reaching decisions about their fossil-fuel models.

Consumer goods in 2022: knots in the supply chain

• Global retail sales will recover to 2019 levels in volume terms, but coronavirus (Covid-19) cases, inflationary pressures and slow job growth will pose challenges.
• Online shopping will grow at a slower pace in 2022 as lockdowns lift, but will still account for 17% of global retail sales.
• Higher supply-chain costs will motivate businesses to wean consumers off discount schemes and focus on higher-margin premium products.

Energy in 2022: transition time

• Global energy consumption will rise by 2.2% as economies recover from the impact of the pandemic. All types of energy, apart from nuclear power, will benefit.
• Energy prices will stay firmer than in recent years, as demand recovers and supply bottlenecks continue to disrupt power generation.
• Many energy companies will need to undertake an urgent review of their strategies in 2022, as governments and investors ramp up pressure to cut emissions.

Finance in 2022: gusty tailwinds

• Economic recovery and rising interest rates will boost prospects for many financial firms in 2022, provided bad loans remain at manageable levels.
• Developing markets will take longer to regain their appeal than developed ones. Regulatory uncertainties in China will throw up challenges in the world’s fastest-growing market for financial services.
• Green finance will move towards center stage, as companies and investors try to live up to pledges made at the COP26 climate summit.

Healthcare in 2022: the aftermath of coronavirus

• Global healthcare spending growth will slow to 4.1%, despite rising costs, as governments start to assess the economic damage wreaked by the pandemic.
• Vaccinating the world against Covid-19 (coronavirus) will remain a core priority. However, healthcare systems will also need to start tackling a backlog of non-coronavirus care.
• Healthcare is not exempt from supply-chain problems, and governments will push ahead with regulation designed to increase resilience and lower costs.

Technology and telecoms in 2022: geopolitical tensions

• Of 60 major telecoms markets, 16 will launch 5G services in 2022 (see map below), but challenges in spectrum availability and pricing will cause delays.
• Technology and politics will continue to be interlinked. The semiconductor shortage will persist, making onshoring of chip production a strategic priority for countries.
• Governments will tighten regulations to boost cyber security, which will be the main short-term risk to digitalization progress, but discrepancies between countries will often dilute the impact.

Tourism in 2022: a shaky recovery

• International arrivals will recover some ground but fail to return to 2019 levels, with business travel likely to remain depressed.
• Differing levels of border control and variations in vaccine passports will continue to make international travel difficult in 2022, although domestic tourism will fill some gaps.
• Compliance with climate-change regulations, as well as higher fuel prices and wages, will increase air-travel costs in 2022. This will eventually lead to airline mergers, airport closures and higher ticket prices.

Lastly, with respect to its macroeconomic forecast, The EIU asserts that "the global economic recovery will continue in 2022, with real GDP expanding by 4.1% at market exchange rates, after rebounding by an estimated 5.4% in 2021. Of the G20 countries, China and Turkey were the only two not to shrink in 2020 and will continue to post firm growth. Eight more, led by the US, have already regained their 2019 GDP levels in real terms, following a strong rebound. The remaining ten, including EU countries and Japan, will regain pre-pandemic levels in 2022, having lost two years of growth."

The report, however, points out that the "recovery could still be derailed if the pandemic flares up again. Persistent supply-chain disruptions could keep commodity prices elevated. This will benefit commodity-dependent countries, but will fuel inflation. That, in turn, will lead to tightening monetary policy, with impacts on stock markets, banks, companies and governments. Geopolitics will remain fraught too: the EIU sees an escalation in US-China tensions as the biggest global risk."

Twelve months ago as my colleagues and prepared to close-out 2020, we anticipated 2021 would be a year of recovery and renewal. While some sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals have seen a healthy rebound, the automotive and tourism sectors struggled during the past year. And the consumer goods, energy, finance, and healthcare sectors had a mixed year as they seek out new areas of opportunity. In the coming year, we will be watching the global vaccination rate, the rise of any potential variants of covid-19, and how governments respond to new outbreaks. We will also monitor how governments and central banks continue their efforts to stimulate economic growth while curtailing inflationary pressure.

What will you be watching in 2022?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Telemedicine Consultations Could Be Key to Addressing Growing Economic Cost of Treating Diabetes in the Gulf Region

"Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are two Gulf nations witnessing an explosive growth in the prevalence and incidence of diabetes, having some of the highest rates in the world," The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) explains in a briefing paper. In addition, "According to 2019 reports, prevalence is as high as nearly one in five adults (18.3%) in Saudi Arabia and about one in six adults (15.4%) in the UAE. Telemedicine has been an important part of care in these countries' evolving healthcare services to keep affected patients healthy and costs down."

Supported by Abbot Laboratories, an American company that produces health care products, Telemedicine and diabetes care in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates explores how healthcare systems in these two countries have used telemedicine to remotely monitor people living with diabetes during the pandemic. The paper suggests that the "experience and lessons may serve as a helpful guide for other countries in the Gulf."

The paper presents four "reasons why the rollout and adoption of telehealth for diabetes in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been particularly noteworthy, and why these successes are worth continued examination:

"Diabetes care has been in dire need of enhancement: it is well known that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have a high prevalence and projected increase in diabetes among their populations. The resulting healthcare costs are significant. It has become imperative to national health, as well as healthcare budgets, that better, more innovative and sustainable management and prevention tools are explored to their fullest.

"The legal framework is expanding possibilities: telemedicine has long been on the radar as a cost-effective option, but only recently—and just prior to the covid-19 pandemic—have regulation and legal

frameworks allowed it to take shape. Leading up to the pandemic, adoption was already picking up.

"Cost models are shifting: in many ways, telemedicine has reduced costs for patients and doctors and supported social distancing during covid-19. For patients, less travel to clinics has added convenience as well. Better adherence to health recommendations can also lead to fewer costly co-morbidities and complications like stroke and amputation. For doctors, the experience has also been positive. However, some concerns have been raised regarding the increased influx of data from these apps, which requires additional time and effort for analysis, followed by explanations and tailored recommendations to patients which is more intensive, and may require updates to how providers are compensated. Going forward, advances in predictive modelling may improve the efficiency and quality of care. Clinics will also have to determine the safest and most cost-effective hybrid model of in-person and virtual clinic interactions.

"No going back: according to those interviewed and studies published, the rapid rollout and adoption of telemedicine for diabetes have been largely welcomed and deemed successful by many patients, doctors and the wider health system. Emerging evidence suggests telehealth is helping this population to achieve better self-care. More long-term studies will be needed to judge its true safety and efficacy, as well as cost-effectiveness, but doctors and patient groups we spoke to are keen to progress this care pathway based on the experience during covid-19."

The paper concludes that "The covid-19 pandemic and its lockdowns have meant a sudden change in the delivery of healthcare, with telehealth and digital solutions becoming the go-to options. In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the transition of care to telehealth and remote services for people living with diabetes has been supported by patients and doctors alike."

"The experience has meant that patients are now more comfortable sitting in front of a screen and streaming data in real time to their doctors. In return, they have become familiar with continuous monitoring and virtually received advice on better self-care."

Importantly, "Telehealth diabetes care has been given a boost by covid-19, and it is vital that Saudi Arabia and the UAE seize it to its fullest in order to mitigate the worrying trajectory of their national diabetes trends. But indications suggest that new hybrid models of care will emerge in future involving in-person care, remote care and predictive modelling supporting real-time care."

My colleagues and I have followed the growing telemedicine sector in the Gulf region (see "Tackling Diabetes and Obesity in an Age of Digital Acceleration in the Gulf Cooperation Council," "An Analysis of 'Diagnosing Health Care in the GCC'," and "Report Explores How Digital Technologies Are Shaping the Middle East's Healthcare Ecosystems"). This paper by The EIU presents the latest evidence that telemedicine consultations could be key to addressing growing economic cost of treating diabetes and other non-communicable diseases.

What are your thoughts about the paper's findings? Do the experience and lessons serve as a helpful guide for other countries in the Gulf?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Corporate Leaders Need to Improve Their Ability to Respond to Evolving Cybersecurity Threats by Nation-States

"Cyber-security is rarely far from the headlines, but reporting tends to focus on big events rather than a general growth in attacks and the evolving domain of conflict," The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) says in a report entitled Securing a shifting landscape: Corporate perceptions of nation-state cyber-threats. Furthermore, "As the world becomes more interconnected, nation-state incursions that steal, destroy or damage information, or that spy on or embarrass their targets, are a growing concern among policymakers and corporate executives alike, with more countries facing accusations of either conducting or sponsoring such attacks."

Being more engaged in the cybersecurity industry over the past few years, I concur with the report's assertion that "[t]he shifting landscape of state-sponsored threats—and how stakeholders respond to them—will have a major impact on how firms operate and what they perceive to be the best way to mitigate threats. This is crucial as cyber-attacks increasingly target new sectors and different types of data."

As Cybersecurity Tech Accord, an advocacy organization that sponsored the report, notes:

The data in this report captures how private-sector leaders and security experts across different industries from around the world are grappling with the rise of nation-state threats online, how they have seen these threats evolve and where they see the trends going. The results are sobering. Not only do private-sector leaders increasingly recognize nation-state threats as posing significant risk to their organizations, but the problem is only expected to get worse in the years ahead. This marks a fundamental shift in security planning. While every organization historically has had to give at least some consideration to its security practices—both physical and digital—it is unprecedented that private organizations on this scale should have to steel themselves against attacks from the most sophisticated actors: governments.

The report is a result of 524 executives surveyed "in November and December 2020 and input from leading security experts. All survey respondents are in senior roles and familiar with their organization's cyber-security strategy."

What is more, survey respondents come from Asia-Pacific (Australia, China, India, and Japan), Europe (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and the Americas (Canada and the United States), with a minimum of 150 respondents in each region. They all sit at director-level or above and come from companies with more than US$500m in global annual revenue. A wide range of industries are represented in the survey, led by IT and technology, retail and consumer goods. Half of respondents are from IT/tech or cyber-security functions.

The EIU "assesses corporate perceptions of nation-state cyber-threats. It finds that companies have become aware of the challenges posed by such threats and are concerned about them; however, their ability to respond to evolving risks may be lacking." Below are the report's key findings:

• "Firms' confidence in their ability to handle nation-state threats may be overstated. Companies recognize the threat posed by nation-state attacks and demonstrate a high degree of confidence in their ability to face them. This confidence may be inflated, however, according to experts interviewed for this report."
• Interestingly, "Executives in Asia show a subtle but noticeable trend of both greater concern and greater readiness than their European and North American counterparts."
• "Concerns over nation-state threats have evolved to encompass more factors. Cyber-attacks were once primarily viewed as a financial risk. Now, however, nation-state attacks also often target confidential materials and other important information (such as medical data), as highlighted by recent sophisticated breaches. Our survey respondents recognize this shift and view nation-state actors as a rising future threat.
• "Greater political will, at home and abroad, is crucial to combating the issue. Executives and experts view stronger cyber-security legislation and regulation as key ways to cultivate a safer cyber-environment, followed closely by stronger international agreements, which have been elusive to date.
• "The covid-19 pandemic has led to growing opportunities for cyber-incursions, especially to gain a foothold in the vaccine race. Experts interviewed for this report all note an increase in foreign actors trying to exploit weaknesses to gain access to sensitive pandemic-related data, particularly in sectors such as healthcare."

"It has become clear that nation-state cyber-threats and their attendant breaches are unavoidable," the report explains. "Instead of trying to protect everything, many organizations have in recent years defaulted to a risk-management mindset of trying to protect the most important data and information in the company rather than trying in vain to protect everything. Moreover, an ad-hoc, company-by-company approach leaves many gaps."

In addition, "There is a need for actions that can both strengthen defenses and reduce the incentives for nation-state attacks, starting with greater political will and partnerships between both the private sector and governments and between countries. Many countries have tried public-private partnership (PPP) models to resolve the challenge, but to little avail."

The EIU presents the following five key steps as a call to action in a new cyber-landscape:

1. "Realize the extent of the problem. Even when alert levels appear high, prominent examples of purported nation-state attacks show that many organizations need to realize that the threat may be larger than their current ability to defend themselves.
2. "Recognize the evolving nature of the threats. Given that recent nation-state cyber-attacks increasingly target confidential materials and crucial information across a wider range of sectors, organizations across industries must prepare for potential attacks on types of data they would not have previously expected.
3. "Identify potential pain points within the organization. The covid-19 pandemic illustrates the ability of malign, sophisticated and foreign actors to exploit gaps. These weaknesses should be clearly identified and addressed, even though the most sophisticated attackers will find a way in if they work hard enough.
4. "Create partnerships for the future. Political and business leaders need to co-operate more proactively to craft both domestic and international agreements on cyberspace norms.
5. "Encourage governments to do more. Companies can work with governments to increase transparency around nation-state threats, raise awareness of the issue and build capacity to deal with it."

Among the 25 questions respondents responded to, 47.1% said they were very concerned about their organization falling victim to a nation-state cyber-attack (33.4% said they were somewhat concerned). 39.9% percent of respondents said they were much more concerned about their organization falling victim to a nation-state cyber-attack today compared with five years ago (39.5% responded that were somewhat more concerned).

With respect to "Through which of the following types of infrastructure do you think a nation-state cyber-attack would most likely enter your corporate network over the next five years?" 60.7 percent said the cloud environment followed by employee computers/laptops (47.3%), hardware infrastructure (e.g., servers) (46.6%), and mobile phones (27.1%). (Figures may not add up to 100% in some cases due to rounding or because more than one option could be selected.)

On the topic of risk mitigation, I appreciate the following responses to: "What steps has your organization taken to prepare for a potential nation-state cyber-attack?"

• Increasing investment on cyber-security-related technical measures (44.1%)
• Improving training and education of employees (37.4%)
• Designating a person or team to be in charge of cyber-security across the organization (31.3%)
• Establishing or enhancing corporate policies regarding nation-state cyber-attacks (25.8%)
• Increasing investment on risk management or legal advice (25.8%)
• Establishing or enhancing corporate processes regarding compliance with national cyber-security regulations or policies (25.6%)
• Committing to a set of standards (as issued from an international organization, industry body, etc.) (23.7%)
• Designating a person or team to be in charge of addressing nation-state cyber-attacks specifically (21.0%)
• Engaging in international discussions on stability of cyberspace (19.7%)
• Regular information exchange with the government (19.5%)
• Other (0.2%)
• None of the above (0.2%)

Another key question is "What are the most concerning potential consequences of a nation-state cyber-attack on your organization?"

• Leak of confidential material(s) (44.3%)
• Loss of crucial information (37.2%)
• Financial loss (31.1%)
• Reputational loss for the organization as a whole (24.8%)
• Loss of business continuity (20.6%)
• Personal liability for my organization's senior leadership (15.5%)
• Loss of competitive advantage (15.5%)
• Other (0.2%)
• Not sure (0.2%)

Disappointingly, only 21.4% of respondents said the board of directors is primarily responsible for setting their organization's overall cyber-security strategy. This was followed by CEO at 24.4%, CIO/CTO or equivalent (24.2%), and CISO or equivalent (9.0%). One of the board's key responsibilities is to identify and mitigate risks that may negatively impact the company's operations or revenues. In an article about organizational resilience, Linton Wells II, Ph.D., an Executive Advisor at George Mason University's Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities (C-RASC), wrote: "Successful corporate directors are keen to build resilience. Only senior leadership, supported by the board, has the breadth of vision and the experience to address these issues comprehensively." Preparing a company to deal with a nation-state cyber-attack should be a board's priority for building resilience.

Lastly, the report includes the following quote by Charles Carmakal of Mandiant, a division of FireEye, a Milpitas, Calif.-based cyber-security company: "The SolarWinds supply-chain attack caused the industry to rethink how they manage third-party risk. What's different from previous nation-state attacks was the level of sophistication and scale of this operation." As I learned from my colleague, Emmanuel Lehmann, a cybersecurity expert, during times of disruption and in the wake of significant incidents, corporate leaders need to understand the challenges of nation-state cyber-threats.

What steps has your organization taken to prepare for a potential nation-state cyber-attack? What are the most concerning potential consequences of a nation-state cyber-attack on your organization?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

While a Slow, Painful Recovery to the Global Economy Is Predicted in 2021, the EIU Says Digitalization Will Present Opportunities for Certain Sectors

While I am always mindful of risks that can impact a company's operations, a pandemic is not often a risk most corporate leaders prepare for. The coronavirus pandemic's grip on the global economy was certainly not in consideration when I published a post about The Economist Intelligence Unit's (The EIU) Industries in 2020 report. One year later, The EIU's report entitled Industries in 2021: A Slow, Painful Recovery, which gives its outlook for six global industries: automotive, consumer goods and retail, energy, financial services, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications, says "[m]uch of what we predicted in last year's report turned out to be wrong. As we all know, the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic overturned assumptions about the development of the global economy and destroyed any hope of steady growth for many industries. This year more uncertainties and risks lie ahead as the world stutters into a recovery."

The report explains: "With their finances already weakened by the pandemic and resulting lockdowns, many companies will not be able to take advantage of a recovery that is likely to be fitful. The consumer goods and retail sector in particular is likely to see a wave of bankruptcies and store closures as more business goes online. The financial sector will also have to cope with a sharp rise in non-performing loans that, in some cases, may overwhelm the provisions that banks have put in place. Restructuring will reshape even those industries, such as telecoms, which have emerged from the pandemic relatively unscathed. However, there will be some winners from this process as markets consolidate around surviving companies and opportunities open up for new business models."

What is more, "With many industries lobbying for support, governments whose tax revenues are already depleted will have to focus support and incentives on sectors with the strongest growth prospects, or those that feed into long-term policy goals. These are likely to include protecting jobs, promoting investment (particularly in innovation) and tackling climate change."

Regarding the energy sector, The EIU maintains "policy will focus on increasing the use of renewable energy. Even Poland, previously a staunch defender of its coal sector, will begin a phase-out, while markets in South-East Asia will see particularly strong growth in renewables. In the automotive sector, generous incentives will continue to encourage purchases of electric vehicles, particularly in Europe, although countries such as France will start to trim back funding as the sector develops. China, meanwhile, will shift its focus towards hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, previously an area where Japan led the way."

On the topic of trade spats and international disputes, the report suggests: "As countries and companies try to rebuild, their focus is likely to turn inwards, with domestic markets and operations becoming a priority. However, as pressure to reshore production and secure supply chains increases, this will have implications at an international level, too."

For example, "In the telecoms sector, this has particular implications for Huawei, a Chinese telecoms company that is now being targeted by US export controls. The technology war will also affect other sectors, including automotive and consumer electronics, while in the financial services sector concerns over China's intentions could undermine Hong Kong's role as an international hub. The UK, meanwhile, will face its own international challenges, as Brexit finally takes full effect on January 1st, drastically changing the business environment for financial firms, automakers and many others."

"Digitalization," according to The EIU, "will affect nearly every industry sector. In the consumer goods and retail sector (and even the automotive sector) the growth of online shopping will generate new companies and new jobs, making up for some of the cuts seen in real-world retailing. However, online retailers will not have it all their own way, with cash-strapped governments keen to raise digital taxes that are likely to exacerbate international tensions."

Moreover, "The rise in online shopping and other activity will also fuel the growth of new financial services, starting with digital payments and progressing into digital currencies, including national ones in China and elsewhere. Even healthcare providers, spurred by the pandemic and social distancing measures, are expanding their online services, with new regulations widening access to telehealth—while at the same time reining back its use where it could affect patient care."

The EIU's "key global forecasts for the six industries covered by this report are:

• "Asia will be the first region to rebound to 2019 levels in most industries, given its relatively shallow slump in 2020;
• "Latin America and Africa will see the slowest recovery, held back by low commodity prices and high debt levels;
• "new-car sales will recover to grow by 15% globally, while commercial vehicle sales will rise by 16%, but only China, Ukraine and Turkey will see sales return to their 2019 levels;
• "global retail sales volumes will grow by 3% but still fall 2% short of 2019 levels;
• "energy consumption will rebound partially—by 2.6% worldwide—but demand for oil and coal will remain lower than in 2019 as the use of renewables surges ahead;
• "financial firms will face weak demand for their services amid mounting debt defaults, while their income will be hurt by low interest rates;
• "healthcare expenditure, which dipped in 2020 despite spending on the pandemic, will surpass 2019 levels, rising by 7% worldwide in US dollar terms; and
• "global mobile subscriptions, which also dipped in 2020, will increase by 3%, again surpassing 2019 levels."

The EIU held a webinar, which is available through this link or the video embedded below, features industry analysts who comment on specific aspects of the report. While I recommend watching the session in its entirety, one point worth mentioning is the presentation of how the six industries covered by the report will be impacted by four key trends:

Job loses and bankruptcies will mount

• Automotive
• Consumer goods and retail

Some governments will aim to support a green recovery

• Automotive
• Energy

Trade spats and international disputes will remain disruptive

• Financial services
• Telecoms

Digitalization will offer the biggest opportunities

• Consumer goods and retail
• Financial services
• Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
• Telecoms

"As these decidedly mixed forecasts demonstrate," the report notes "there will be nothing straightforward about the global economic and business recovery in 2021. Even if the coronavirus is brought under control, many companies will face challenges that they will not be able to meet. Nevertheless, there will also be opportunities on offer for companies that are nimble enough to take advantage of rapid changes in the economic, business and political environment."

What are your predictions for 2021?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

5G Will Enable a New Era of Connectivity in North America, Resulting in an Unprecedented Demand for Data and Digital Services

According to a report published by the GSMA, a UK-based organization representing the interests of mobile operators worldwide, "5G is poised to enable a new era of connectivity, bringing new services and increased efficiency across industries. Operators in North America continue to be among the world leaders when it comes to 5G deployment. This can be seen by the rollout of nationwide 5G in the US, enabled by spectrum refarming and dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS). Operators in the region are also advancing with standalone 5G deployments, which will be key to bringing many of the enhanced, latency-sensitive 5G use cases to market."

Titled The Mobile Economy North America 2020, the report, which is authored by GSMA Intelligence, GSMA's research and consulting arm, further explains that "[a]lthough the rate of 5G adoption was lower than initially expected in the first half of 2020 because of the pandemic, this is likely to be a blip. North America will reach 100 million 5G connections in 2022, driven by continued network investments from operators and the expanding range of 5G smartphones at varying price points. By 2025, North America will have become the first region where 5G accounts for more than 50% of total connections."

On the topic of the mobile industry driving social impact and contributing to economic growth, the report encouragingly says: "The mobile industry has engaged with businesses and governments on initiatives to alleviate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Mobile operators and other industry players have supported the most vulnerable in society during the pandemic while also contributing to economic recovery efforts e.g. by providing increased data allowances for customers and giving free equipment to schools and students."

What is more, "Mobile technologies and services generated 4.8% of GDP in North America in 2019, a contribution that amounted to over $1 trillion of economic value added. In the same year, the mobile ecosystem also supported more than 2 million jobs (directly and indirectly) and made a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector, with almost $100 billion raised through taxation."

Other key highlights from the report include:

• The report asserts that a thirst for streaming content, new digital services, and the rollout of 5G networks will fuel an exponential increase in data consumption;
• Alongside 5G rollouts, operators are also pursuing ambitious network transformation strategies;
• The level of operator capex investment will reach $337bn for the period 2019–2025; and
• Operator revenues will grow to $294bn by 2025.

Regarding connected devices (IoT), GSMA Intelligence points out that "[w]hile around two in three US companies claim to have deployed an IoT solution, the coverage needs of these companies vary significantly depending on factors such as sector, mobility needs and type of application. More than half of the companies surveyed require national coverage; there is also significant demand for location-specific coverage, highlighting the opportunity for private networks in enterprise connectivity."

Moreover, "For co-investment in private networks in North America, operators see the most suitable targets as financial services (potentially because of high-frequency trading), healthcare and manufacturing. 5G will be an important enabler here – for instance, as part of the move towards automated production lines with more sophisticated tracking and monitoring in the manufacturing sector."

And with respect to healthcare, the report importantly notes:

More than half of mobile users in Canada and the US use mobile to monitor or improve their health. This is done mainly through health-focused mobile apps on smartphones, which provide basic functions such as step counters and activity trackers. However, there is also scope to increase the usage of more sophisticated mobile health solutions, such as virtual care consultations, which allow individuals to contact health practitioners through voice, SMS and video services. These have become increasingly important, as health systems have been overwhelmed by Covid-19, which has made in-person consultations difficult. Operators in North America play a myriad of roles in enabling virtual consultations. This includes providing connectivity and equipment to both practitioners and patients, and developing novel solutions, such as the Babylon by Telus Health service. These efforts help to address systemic challenges in healthcare services, improving social outcomes for governments and their citizens. 

As 5G enables a new era of connectivity in North America, what business opportunities are you seeing that will bring new services and increased efficiency across the region's industries?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

A Case Study on the Benefits and Challenges of Cancer Monitoring With Digital Apps

According to a case study written by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU), "Advances in smartphone technology, healthcare provider information and communications technology infrastructure has enabled the development of new clinical pathways involving app-based remote patient monitoring. Patient monitoring apps allow patients with chronic diseases to report on their condition from outside of the hospital – where they spend most of their time – putting the patient, rather than the hospital, at the center of the care pathway."

What is more, "A high society-wide level of smartphone penetration has presented a large market for developers, with apps now used in clinical practice for chronic disease management in diabetes, chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure and oncology. However, up until the covid-19 pandemic struck, the development of technological capabilities within healthcare had largely outpaced the capacity to implement many novel remote patient monitoring apps as part of real-world practice."

Titled Outside the hospital: cancer monitoring with apps, the study explains that the "covid-19 pandemic initiated a rapid reorganization of healthcare delivery systems, raising awareness of these digital tools that physicians can use to provide care outside hospitals. Chronic disease monitoring apps vary widely in their functionality but increasingly rely on patients to capture health data that can help inform clinical decision-making. This has enabled a high degree of patient-centricity, varying from enabling behavioral nudges from clinicians to providing real-time updates to care teams with on-demand care capabilities for patients."

Commissioned by Siemens Healthineers, a multinational digital healthcare company based in Germany, The EIU's study explores "the use of remote monitoring, particularly in oncology. We review recent health system developments, challenges to implementation of these digital tools and the emerging opportunities for their sustainable use throughout health systems."

The study presents the following benefits in using monitoring apps:

• Patient monitoring apps can provide real-time data on cancer patients, thereby enabling much faster feedback loops between individuals and their healthcare teams.
• Clinicians can develop personalized cancer care plans that respond to patient behaviors and support better management of adverse events related to treatment.
• Cancer apps could support a reduction in healthcare costs arising from preventable hospital admissions.
• They can help to improve a patient's quality of life by allowing them to become participants in co-creating their care and opening the door for shared decision-making.

Conversely, challenges of using monitoring apps include:

• Reimbursement pathways for mobile health tools have traditionally been a barrier to implementation, but leveraging beyond the pandemic could accelerate adoption into clinical pathways.
• Healthcare providers need to invest in ICT infrastructure that can rapidly translate data from apps into actionable and meaningful insights for clinicians – without becoming an additional administrative burden.
• Providers will need to invest in different skills for digital workflows, or new roles will be required within healthcare settings, to support the digital patient journey.
• Confidence in these tools could be achieved with the use of digital formularies.
• Healthcare providers and developers will need to continue to work together to prioritize the standardization of apps so that they are interoperable across health systems. As regulations differ across geographies, this will require taking into account factors including different IT architecture, connectivity requirements, and data sharing and communication standards.

"Mobile apps can provide a more valuable, real-time dataset by enabling a much faster feedback loop between patients and their care teams," the study importantly notes. "Increased reactivity allows for deeply personalized cancer care plans that respond to patient behaviors, in addition to better management of adverse events related to treatment, a reduction in healthcare costs arising from preventable hospital admissions and ultimately improved patient quality of life. These apps provide an avenue for patients to become participants in co-creating their care pathway and open the door for shared decision-making, which may have other behavioral benefits in terms of adherence."

Having engaged with companies developing digital solutions for the healthcare industry for over ten years, I have witnessed significant advances in innovative technologies and services that provide a direct benefit for the patient. While I acknowledge the existence of the aforementioned challenges, I remain optimistic that the healthcare industry worldwide will continue to evolve to incorporate patient-centric tools including remote monitoring apps. In doing so, patients will enjoy a sense of empowerment when the receive their health information in real-time. This information will also enable the patient's healthcare team to formulate a collaborative plan with the patient to combat diseases such as cancer.

What benefits and challenges do you see in the use of patient monitoring apps?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Looks at the Promise and Current Limitations of Precision Medicine

"Precision medicine has the potential to transform healthcare," a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) explains. "By moving away from trial and error towards more targeted, accurate diagnoses and treatments, people should be able to live longer and healthier lives and social outcomes should improve, all with less wasted time, money and energy. This is what medicine has always aspired to, but has not yet been able to deliver."

Commissioned by the Qatar Foundation, a nonprofit organization made up of more than 50 entities working in education, research, and community development, Doing well? Fulfilling the promise of precision medicine, "looks at the promise and current limitations of precision medicine, the barriers to its implementation in public health systems, and the areas where policymakers – indeed, all stakeholders – must focus their efforts in order to realize its potential."

The key findings listed below are based on an extensive literature review and a comprehensive interview program conducted by The EIU between March and September 2020.

• Defining the term precision medicine is challenging. It is best understood as the potential outcome of four interwoven, data-related enablers: (1) the increasing volume of data available to health systems; (2) vast growth in the kinds of data from which health systems can draw insight; (3) the increasing availability of data storage systems that permit easier access to relevant information; and (4) the quantum leaps in analytic technology that make it possible to draw greater insights from this information.
• Hopes are high. Precision medicine is expected to benefit all healthcare stakeholders: patients will have quicker access to the treatments they need, and will be able to avoid the risks of taking incorrect medication; health systems will reduce waste and improve outcomes; payers will receive better value for money; and the overall health of populations will improve.
• Current advances are limited but remain highly promising. There are already a number of important examples of precision medicine in action. Thanks to a better understanding of tumor genetics, more effective treatments are now possible for several cancers, notably those of the lung and breast. In the field of rare disease, genomic sequencing is cutting diagnosis times for a large number of patients. Pharmacogenomics—the study of how a person’s genetics interact with particular drugs—is a growing field, and genetic sequencing is being used to recognize pathogen mutations.
• Proof of value remains a pressing issue. Given the possible breadth of applications for precision medicine, it is challenging to determine whether the field as a whole is cost-effective. Some interventions may be; others may not.
• There is controversy around the concept of precision public health. This highlights fundamental issues that must be resolved if precision medicine is to become more widely integrated into health systems.
• Those seeking to incorporate precision medicine into healthcare systems will need to address a diverse and complicated range of issues. Innovation in healthcare systems is notoriously difficult. Integrating precision medicine into standard care will require the creation of new care pathways and new kinds of interventions, all of which will require different infrastructure. In most health systems, this process is only in the initial stages.
• To be successful, precision medicine must be delivered in a patient-centered way. Patient-centricity involves working with patients as co-creators of healthcare and health research, which involves a conversation of equals. Clinicians will need to help patients understand the implications of precision tests, the relevant data and the treatment choices. Both sides can then determine together what the patient values most in terms of the outcome(s) of any intervention. Adopting a patient-centricity can also helpto address some of the pressing ethical issues surrounding precision medicine.

The report's concluding paragraph insightfully notes: "We are still in the early stages of learning how to implement precision medicine and understanding what this will look like in practice. All relevant stakeholders need to ensure that they develop the appropriate and necessary foundations for precision medicine in order for this radically new way of doing things to deliver on its promises."

To complement its report, The EIU produced the video below (also viewable through this link) entitled "Can precision medicine fulfill its promise?"

What are your recommendations for how precision medicine can transform healthcare?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.