Geopolitical Shocks and Climate Change Will Remain Biggest Risks in 2025, Says EIU Report

"Hopes that the world will one day return to normal have been continually dashed since the covid-19 pandemic, and 2025 will be no different," the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) says in its Industry outlook 2025 report that explores the challenges, opportunities and trends to watch in the following six industries: energy, financial services, consumer goods and retailing, technology, automotive, and healthcare. The report further says: "Although working and travel patterns are normalizing, the economic and political outlook remains uncertain. EIU forecasts that real GDP will grow by a subdued 2.6% in 2025, similar to 2024 but slower than the average for the ten years before the pandemic." What is more, "The US economy will slow as labor markets tighten, but China's will accelerate slightly, amid stimulus and reviving trade. Those of the EU and Japan will also tick up, but only smaller developing markets such as India will deliver significant growth."

Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers will force more shifts in supply chains, amid subdued business growth. The EIU also presents the following predictions for 2025:

• Inflation is expected to ease, allowing for further monetary easing.
• Prices for agricultural and energy commodities will fall, but those for industrial raw materials will rise.
• Geopolitical risks will persist amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, while rising trade barriers between the EU, the US and China will reshape supply chains.
• Climate change will increase geopolitical tensions. National climate pledges will be updated at COP30 in November 2025, but much will depend on US leadership.
• Investment in technology, especially artificial intelligence (AI), will remain strong, but tech companies will face regulatory pressures, investor impatience and scrutiny over energy usage.

According to the EIU, "Falling inflation will allow monetary easing to continue. We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points during 2025. We also expect prices for agricultural commodities and industrial raw materials to move in different directions in 2025- 26. Although agricultural prices will continue to trend downwards, prices for industrial raw materials will rise again, particularly for base metals that benefit from the green transition. As for energy commodities, prices will fall on average, but remain at risk from political shocks."

The UK-based company provides the following key global forecasts for each sector covered by its report:

• Energy: Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face geopolitical risks amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China.
• Financial services: Falling interest rates will weigh on bank profit margins, leading to lower dividend payouts, but the Basel III endgame will be eased or delayed further.
• Consumer goods and retailing: Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2%, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further, particularly for high-volume low-price Asian retailers such as Shein and Temu.
• Technology: More countries will start using satellite internet, but use cases will be limited to enterprise clients—military and maritime. Amazon's Kuiper will disrupt the market duopoly of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb.
• Automotive: After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. We forecast that sales of new cars will rise by 2%, commercial vehicles by 4% and electric vehicles by 16%.
• Healthcare: Global healthcare spending will outpace inflation, growing by 1.9% in real terms. The World Health Organization will make climate change the focus of its 14th four-year general program, which starts in 2025.

Companies and investors alike should take note that geopolitical shocks and climate change will remain the biggest risks in 2025. The EIU's "baseline forecast assumes that another large-scale war will not break out in Asia or the Middle East. However, the continued threat of geopolitical conflict, in addition to the continuing war in Ukraine, will lead to economic reconfiguration and policy divergence." Moreover, "The EU and the US are already raising barriers against Chinese exports in areas from  automotive and technology to healthcare. Chinese retaliation is likely to intensify in 2025 as rival blocs emerge across the world. These trends," according to the report's authors, "will reshape supply chains over 2025, and could upend our forecast of falling commodity prices and inflation."

Regarding climate change and how efforts to mitigate it will play in these political rifts, the report notes that "At COP30 in November 2025 governments are due to update their national climate pledges (NDCs), but much will depend on US leadership. The debate over environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting will intensify as regulations enforcing disclosure come into effect in the EU and elsewhere." In addition, "EU climate regulations, due to come into force from 2026, will also have an international impact on trade by forcing multinational companies to monitor their supply chains."

While investment in technology, particularly AI, will be strong as projects gather pace, "technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny." I agree with the EIU that "Companies will need to navigate these new requirements, while also trying to reconfigure their supply chains and seek out areas of growth."

What challenges, opportunities and trends are you watching as we celebrate the beginning of 2025?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Growth Prospects, Risks and Trends in Six Critical Sectors in 2024

The past few years have been turbulent for most companies as the pandemic, soaring commodity prices, high interest rates and political disruption resulted in profits for many and bankruptcy for some. A report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) asks: Will conditions stabilize in 2024?

EIU's report provides growth prospects, risks and trends facing six critical sectors in the coming year, as inflation eases but geopolitical tensions remain high. The report argues that the biggest challenge facing businesses next year will be climate change and looks at how experimentation with artificial intelligence will give way to rapid adoption, changing corporate strategies and the nature of work.

Key findings include:

• Climate change will drive demand in sectors relating to mitigation and adaptation. Insurers, companies and governments will struggle to price in the increasing risks.
• EU and US regulations on environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting will push companies to scrutinize their operations and supply chains. However, skepticism about ESG will harden in the US ahead of November’s presidential elections.
• Corporate concerns over taxation will increase as the OECD introduces its global minimum tax rate and individual governments try to reduce budget deficits and national debt levels.
• Geopolitical tensions and wars will complicate government and corporate responses to all of the above. Investment in supply chains, particularly for technology and the energy transition, will adapt to minimize political risk.
• Generative artificial intelligence will disrupt a few sectors, but most companies will find ways to use AI to increase productivity.

The report also provides key global forecasts for each sector covered:

• Automotive: The automotive industry will face another subdued year in 2024, weighed down by slow consumer spending, high interest rates and disruption to supply chains due to geopolitical tensions. The only bright spot will be the electric vehicles market, with sales expected to soar by 21% to 14.9 million unit as governments and consumers try to mitigate the worsening effects of climate change. The report notes that established carmakers will have to fight hard to hold off competition from China.
• Consumer goods and retail: A slowdown in inflation will bolster retail volume growth by 6.7% in US dollar terms and 2% in volume terms in 2024. However, reduced savings and high food prices, worsened by the effects of climate change, will act as dampeners. The EIU also points out that high food prices will continue to cause problems in Asia.
• Energy: Global energy consumption will grow by 1.8% in 2024, largely driven by strong demand in Asia. Despite still-high prices and unsolved supply chain disruptions, demand for fossil fuels will reach record levels, but demand for renewable energy will rise by 11%.
• Finance: High interest rates will determine the success or failure of almost every part of the financial services sector in 2024. Though painful for borrowers, banks will enjoy strong net interest margins margins and revenue flows until margins begin to narrow mildly in late 2024. Property firms and funds, however, will suffer.
• Healthcare: Healthcare spending will rise by 2% in real US-dollar terms, following two years of decline, as inflation eases. However, resources will remain constrained as governments try to bring down fiscal deficits and public debt levels.
• Telecoms and technology: Geopolitics will continue to affect technology in 2024. The tech battle between the US and China will persist in areas including artificial intelligence (AI), chips and quantum technologies. AI will continue to develop, particularly generative AI, but will encounter challenges from new regulations in the EU and other major jurisdictions, as well as complications from US-China tensions.

I appreciate how the annual industry outlook provides businesses with foresight of the critical global trends and threats that will affect their sector 2024. Which trends and threats are you watching in the coming year?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Identifies Six Decarbonizing Technologies That Will Help Asia's Path to a Greener Future

"Asia, home to vast engines of economic growth, is at the center of the climate debate," says a report written by Economist Impact and sponsored by Eastspring Investment, which is a Singapore-based asset management business of Prudential plc. The report adds that "In the past two decades, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion have risen by 45%, primarily driven by Asia, for which this figure stood at 135%. The region's ongoing dependence on coal has driven its per-head carbon emissions to equal that of the global average. Asia's carbon emissions are likely to rise by 16% over the next decade.

"Meanwhile, the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced in parts of the region. In the past year, unprecedented floods in Pakistan wiped out a significant share of its crops; India recorded its highest-ever temperatures, with meteorologists sounding the alarm for more to come this year; and a severe heatwave in China exacerbated a drought that impacted food production and the power supply."

The report importantly points out that Asia "is facing significant human and economic costs arising from intense greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under pressure to set ambitious net zero targets and reduce emissions, technologies that enhance efficiencies and help industries decarbonize will be crucial pieces of the climate puzzle in Asia."

The findings presented in Asia's path to a greener future: Six technologies with decarbonizing potential are based on an extensive literature review, an interview program, and analysis conducted between October 2022 and March 2023. The report's findings, which are listed below, are intended to act as a springboard for discussions to support the development of technologies that have decarbonizing potential and identify the roadblocks to their progress.

• Technologies that are driving significant gains in Europe or the Americas need to be adapted to the Asian market. For example, the majority of alternative protein products are tailored to suit Western preferences and are prohibitively costly for the more price-sensitive Asian market. Alternative proteins would likely see broader adoption and create more impact if adapted to specific market preferences and price conditions.
• Decarbonization efforts should aim to address emissions and waste across the entire lifecycle of production and use. Most of the hydrogen currently consumed is grey, which is produced from natural gas. The decarbonization potential of hydrogen-powered vehicles will significantly increase with the use of renewable energy to produce hydrogen fuel. Likewise, using food waste for manufacturing textiles moves away from the current highly polluting linear model of production to a circular economy.
• Developing supporting infrastructure can enhance technology development. The growth of technologies such as hydrogen vehicles and battery recycling is currently limited due to insufficient supporting infrastructure. Spurring hydrogen vehicle uptake depends on installing a network of refueling stations and green hydrogen production plants. To diminish end-of-life impacts of batteries, well-designed and managed disposable and collection mechanisms are necessary. Implementing policies that support the development of necessary infrastructure will ensure a conducive environment for the growth and expansion of these technologies.
• Addressing poor consumer sentiment will be key in scaling up technologies. Negative perceptions impede new technology adoption. In the case of alternative proteins, consumers can be deterred by concerns about taste and nutritional value. With hydrogen vehicles, safety is a key issue, while recycled batteries can be perceived as lower quality. Investigations into safety incidents can help curb concerns. In other cases, public awareness and better communication by businesses and governments can go a long way to address common misperceptions.
• Recycling and reuse can present opportunities to overcome supply chain disruptions owing to changing global dynamics. The prices of critical minerals are on the rise because of growth in demand and fluctuations in supply. Recycling products, such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries, could ease the dependence on expensive raw materials, improve affordability and facilitate the transition away from a linear take-make-waste economy.
• Policy support in the form of subsidies and financial incentives can reduce technology costs. At present, many new technologies are expensive, which is hindering their adoption and development. Government support through subsidies, grants and other financial incentives can help reduce production costs and enable economies of scale. Lower production costs could translate into lower purchase prices for end consumers and foster greater adoption.
• Greater public and private investments are needed. While climate technology is attracting investment, more financial support is needed to scale-up the next wave of innovation. Funding is also needed to help install essential infrastructure to support the uptake of climate technologies such as hydrogen production plants and EV charging stations.

The six technologies with decarbonizing potential include are segmented into three verticals: agriculture (alternative proteins and precision farming), transport (EV batteries and hydrogen vehicles), and waste (alternative fabrics and battery recycling). These technologies "show considerable potential for reducing Asia's carbon footprint, as well as improving sustainability and security in the region." However, "each technology has its own set of unique challenges."

I support the report's assertion "Technology is a critical enabler of decarbonization efforts and, as it continues to advance, it brings greater scope to address emissions in hard-to-abate sectors." The report adds that "innovation plays a crucial role in improving energy efficiency and reducing waste, but challenges remain to the broader uptake of each technology. Investment in research, development and deployment of nascent technologies will be essential to achieving our climate goals."

What technologies do you think will have the biggest impact on Asia's path to a greener future?

​Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Challenges, Opportunities and Trends to Watch in Seven Sectors in 2023

"The continuing pandemic, the war in Ukraine and high inflation have forced many companies to scale back their forecasts" in 2022, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) notes. Will 2023 will be any better?

The 12th edition of the EIU's annual report forecasts growth and key risks in seven business sectors for 2023, as the war in Ukraine pushes up commodity prices and the cost of living. The report argues that the war has disrupted the recovery from the covid-19 pandemic, and businesses now face increased risks as economies slow or tip into recession, particularly in Europe.

The EIU's report also provides key global forecasts for each of the seven industries:

• Global sales of new vehicles will be flat in 2023, but sales of electric vehicles will rise by 25% to 10.7m units.
• In 2023 retail growth volumes will be respectable at 4.9% in US-dollar terms, which will mainly reflect high inflation. In real terms, global sales will slow or fall in most markets.
• Global energy consumption will rise by just 1.3% as the global economy slows. The energy crisis will force some countries to increase their use of coal or rethink plans to phase out nuclear power.
• Weakening economic output and rising interest rates will lead to more difficult conditions for banks, insurers and fund managers. Formerly fast-growing fintech companies will be hit by the capital-market crunch.
• Global healthcare spending will rise by 4.9% year on year in US-dollar terms, which will mask falling investment in real terms, as countries struggle to cope with continued demand.
• The metaverse will not become a mass-market in 2023, but this will not stop heavy investment into this technology. The drive to standardization and the battle with web3 will be at the forefront.
• International tourism arrivals will rise by 30% as China slowly loosens its covid-19 restrictions. This will follow 60% growth in 2022, but will still leave total arrivals below 2019 levels.

The EIU also presents the following key forecasts for each industry:

Automotive outlook 2023: Bright spots amid stalling growth

• 
  The automotive industry will remain vulnerable to global headwinds in 2023 including the energy crisis, slower global demand and continued supply-chain problems.
• Global new-vehicles sales will remain flat in 2023: new-car sales will rise by 0.9% and new commercial vehicle (CV) sales will fall by 1.3%.
• Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will be the only bright spot, growing by 25%, but governments will restructure their incentive schemes.
• Governments' focus will turn to charging networks, which are inadequate to meet the expanding EV fleet.
• Autonomous vehicles will take a leap forward, as UN regulators lift their speed limit.

Consumer goods and retail outlook 2023: Retailers respond to pricing pressures

• 
  Inflation will push up global retail sales by a robust 5% in US-dollar terms in 2023, but the lower volume of sales and surging costs will weaken retailers' profits.
• The rollout of automation technologies will offer opportunities to limit wage growth, which means that retail employment is unlikely to return to 2019 levels.
• Online sales growth will slow, but the online share of retail will edge up to about 14% of global retail sales.
• Inflation-wary consumers will prefer to shop at discount stores, helping these retailers to increase their market shares.
• The economic slowdown in China, caused in part by its zero-covid strategy, will mean fresh challenges for global luxury brands already affected by the loss of Chinese tourists.

Energy outlook 2023: Surviving the energy crisis

• 
  Global energy consumption will grow by only 1.3% in 2023 amid a slowing economy.
• Despite decarbonization targets, coal consumption will grow marginally to compensate for gaps in gas supplies.
• More extreme weather events will force many countries to fall back on fossil fuels, delaying the energy transition.
• Renewable energy consumption will surge by about 11%, with Asia leading the way, but investment will weaken.
• The energy crisis will prompt some governments to backtrack on efforts to phase out the use of nuclear power.

Finance outlook 2023: A new test for financial stability

• 
  Weakening economic output and rising interest rates will lead to more difficult conditions for banks, insurers and fund managers in 2023 than in the past two years.
• The impact will be particularly acute in North America and Europe, where governments will offer support. The environment will be tough in Asia as well, although policy rates will rise by less.
• Heavily indebted developing countries will find it harder to refinance foreign debt, driving some to default or require rescues to avoid it. However, the International Monetary Fund will continue its lenient treatment of economies requiring its financing programs.
• The current capital-market crunch will hobble a wide variety of loss-making fintech challengers that sought to outflank incumbents in banking, payments and other activities.

Healthcare outlook 2023: The aftermath of the pandemic

• 
  Healthcare spending will fall in 2023 in real terms, given high inflation and slow economic growth, forcing difficult decisions on how to provide care.
• Digitalization of the healthcare system will continue, but the use of health data will come under stricter regulation in the US, Europe and China.
• Patent cliffs for key drugs and measures to control pharmaceutical pricing in the US, India and elsewhere will force some major pharma companies to spur growth through deals.
• Supply-chain disruptions will continue to push up drugmakers' costs, despite investment in more localized pharmaceutical production.

Technology and telecoms outlook 2023: The battle for digital supremacy

• 
  The metaverse will not become mass-market in 2023, but this will not stop heavy investment in the technology. The drive to standardization and the battle with web3 will be at the forefront.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to develop, after several breakthroughs in 2022, but will encounter challenges from new regulations in key jurisdictions.
• Semiconductors will continue to be a geopolitical tool between the US and China, involving many other countries. Some companies producing the most advanced products and equipment will benefit.
• Asian telecommunications companies will continue to look for consolidation in 2023. Mobile markets with four or more mobile network operators, such as Sri Lanka, Japan and India, are the most likely to secure deals.

Tourism outlook 2023: Turbulence in the travel industry

• 
  Global tourism arrivals will rise by 30% in 2023, following 60% growth in 2022, but they will still not return to pre-pandemic levels.
• The economic downturn, sanctions on Russia and, above all, China’s zero-covid strategy will be among the factors weighing on the industry.
• Hotels, restaurants and airports will struggle to cope with labor shortages, wage demands, and high food and energy prices.
• Even so, international airlines are expected to return to profitability, benefiting from continued pent-up demand.
• The impact of climate change on the industry will become more apparent, with high temperatures, water shortages and floods forcing tourism destinations to take action.

Useful for companies developing their global business strategy for the coming year, the report presents the following macroeconomic key points:

• The war in Ukraine, combined with lockdowns in China, has exacerbated supply-chain disruptions and pushed up global inflation, forcing EIU to downgrade its forecasts for economic growth in 2023.
• Many governments, particularly in Europe, will be forced to scale back investment in public services, including healthcare, in order to protect households and businesses from the effects of higher prices.
• While some businesses (particularly in commodities sectors) will benefit from high prices, many will be hit by weak demand and high input costs, particularly for energy.
• Profitability will be squeezed, while corporate investment will slow amid rising interest rates.
• However, some companies (notably in pharmaceuticals, technology and retailing) will take advantage of lower stock-market valuations, bankruptcies and government incentives to snap up strategic assets and position themselves for an eventual upturn.

"Amid all this gloom," the EIU encouragingly says "there will be areas of opportunity." Taking the EV market as an example, "online retail sales and tourism will continue to deliver strong growth, particularly in Asia and the Middle East," the report notes. "Innovations—from the metaverse to automated vehicles and data analytics (notably in healthcare)—will attract investment, with some companies also seizing on chances offered by volatile financial markets." I concur that "It will not be an easy year, but it could be a transformative one."

Lastly, The Economist produced a video that looks into which stories may be worth watching in the coming year.

What will you be watching in 2023?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

Report Explores How Mobile and Digital Technology Can Support Industry Decarbonization

According to a report conducted GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA, a UK-based organization that represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, "The use of mobile and digital technology is a key enabler of the decarbonization transition. Telecoms operators, vendors and supporting ecosystem partners play a key role in the move to digital and low-carbon economies, particularly where it involves the enterprise segment and asset-intensive sectors using technology to lower emissions." Supported Nokia, a Finnish multinational telecommunications, information technology, and consumer electronics company, Industry pathways to net zero: mobile and digital technology in support of industry decarbonization outlines "a high-level quantification of decarbonization and associated strategies for four key industries that account for 80% of global emissions – manufacturing, power and energy, transport, and buildings." The report also outlines "a set of forward-looking implications."

Addressing how smarter use of mobile and digital technology results in carbon savings, the report explains that the "implementation of specific mobile and digital technologies could result in substantial CO2 savings for each industry. In aggregate, the savings enabled by the technologies amount to just under 40% (equivalent to 11 gigatons) of the carbon emissions savings that these industries will need to achieve over the next decade, assuming an end goal of net zero by 2050." I appreciate how GSMA Intelligence puts this in perspective at an industry level:

• The annual global CO2 savings from smart manufacturing would equate to 28 million roundtrip flights from London to Los Angeles.
• The potential CO2 savings from using smart meters in North American residential premises would be enough to power 25 million homes (20% of households in the US) for a year.
• The savings from the switch to electric vehicles (EVs) worldwide would equate to removing 180 million petrol-fueled cars from roads over the next 10 years.

With respect to the specific technologies of IoT, LTE and 5G, the report imparts that "Digitization and decarbonization are enabled by a range of mobile connectivity products and network services working in sync with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning algorithms in the cloud to drive productivity gains." GSMA Intelligence highlights ways "IoT sensors, LTE and 5G connectivity (including for private networks) are being deployed across the industries profiled in this analysis, along with a raft of other solutions."

• In manufacturing, smart factories are underpinned by IoT sensors, robotics and AI that automate dynamic shifts to production capacity and the remote repair of machine faults. This reduces reliance on manual labor, increases productivity and lowers overall factory energy consumption and emissions compared to premises not fitted with these technologies.
• In buildings, intelligent architectural design and the use of sustainable materials in the construction process are augmented by smart electricity and gas systems that optimize the use of energy based on occupancy levels and prevailing external climatic conditions. In homes, smart electricity meters are linked to smart home controls through a central interface that can offer energy savings of up to 5% and, in some cases, the ability to sell excess energy from the consumer to the grid.
• In transport, the use of on-board cellular telematics can improve shipping fuel efficiency and enable a more optimized model for cargo arrivals and departures from ports, due to reductions in idling time and better coordination with trucks for onward distribution of goods.

Having followed the rise of IoT and 5G mobile technology over the past few years, I concur that the "ubiquity of mobile and digital technologies in these examples demonstrates their ability to deliver greater energy efficiency and productivity for industries globally. This requires a long-term and holistic investment approach."

On the benefits of digitization going beyond decarbonization, GSMA Intelligence points out that "While industry decarbonization can help mitigate the risks of global warming, there are other important socioeconomic benefits." Examples include the following:

• Public health outcomes – Reducing CO2 in the power sector will result in lower concentrations of harmful particulate matter and gases such as nitrogen dioxide. A similar effect is expected to prevail as electric vehicles replace petrol- and diesel-fueled cars, and through a higher share of the population working at home.
• Economic diversification – Moving to digital operating models in industries such as manufacturing and transport will create new jobs and sources of national value growth. Digital operating models can also increase access to public services and civic engagement.
• Productivity – Digitization drives fundamental improvements in productivity, which form the basis of new business models across industries.

Lastly, GSMA Intelligence asserts that its "research demonstrates the clear, practical and beneficial impact of using mobile and digital technologies in the largest and most relied upon industries. These are, in the main, ready-made options." The research organization importantly adds that "While investment outlays and deployment costs are required (a particular challenge for smaller companies), these will decrease over time as scale grows. The long-term return on investment from a financial perspective (higher productivity) and sustainability angle (lower emissions) is highly significant. Market participants in the telecoms, media and technology sectors are unique in being both suppliers and consumers of the technologies. In this capacity, we hope this report and ensuing industry case studies add to the best practice driving decarbonization in the years ahead."

How do you think mobile and digital technology can support industry's path to decarbonization?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of GT Perspectives, an online forum focused on turning perspective into opportunity.

The Use of Green Sukuk Grows to Support Environmental Projects

"If the world is to avoid catastrophic climate change, trillions of dollars of sustainable investments will need to be made every year between now and 2050," writes Melanie Noronha, senior editor for The Economist Intelligence Unit's (The EIU) thought leadership division in EMEA. "Much will have to come from capital markets where investors have already demonstrated an appetite for 'green bonds' which tie the proceeds to environmental projects. There are hopes that sukuk—a sharia-compliant financial instrument similar to a bond—could also be channeled towards environmental investments."

Supported by the Dubai Islamic Economy Development Center, Ms. Noronha's article, "A new shade of green: Sukuk for sustainability," is the first in a series by The EIU on "Innovation in the Islamic Economy." According to the article, "The first shoots of a similar 'green' instrument in the Islamic finance sector emerged not too long ago. In 2017, renewable energy group Tadau Energy issued the first 'green' sukuk, raising US$59m to finance a solar power plant in Malaysia, the birthplace of conventional sukuk in the 1990s. Indonesia issued sovereign green sukuk worth US$1.25bn in 2018 and US$750m in 2019 to fund environment-related projects."

Moreover, "There is activity in the Arabian Gulf countries as well. In 2019 Majid Al Futtaim, a UAE-based retail company, raised US$600m with the region's first corporate green sukuk. This was followed by a €1bn (US$1.12bn) green sukuk by Saudi-based Islamic Development Bank to finance renewable energy, green transportation and pollution control in its member countries."

Ms. Noronha explains that "[c]ompared to conventional sukuk, the market for green sukuk is tiny. Conventional sukuk issuance totaled US$162bn in 2019, while the total outstanding debt for green sukuk amounts to only US$7.9bn..." She adds that "some view it as a natural solution for low-carbon investment. Islamic finance is based on assumptions of fairness and social responsibility, and—while it has not always been observed—environmental stewardship is intrinsic to sharia principles."

What is more, "Since sharia forbids the receipt of interest, sukuk are backed by assets and investors are paid an agreed share of the profits before being returned the principal at maturity. This structure gives them confidence that their capital is being used for a particular purpose."

As a way to combat the effects of climate change, I am witnessing a rise of business and investment opportunities in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East in the automotive (electric vehicles) and renewable energy (wind, solar, and biogas) sectors. Recognizing an increasing interest among investors to support environmental, social and governance initiatives (ESG), I concur that "[t]he combination of investors seeking sharia-compliant investments and those with ... ESG priorities provides a wide investor base for green sukuk."

What instruments are you seeing used to support sustainable investments?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.

Report Explores the Impact of Mobile Communications Technologies on Carbon Emission Reductions

According to a report jointly produced by the GSMA, a trade association, and the Carbon Trust, a London-based climate advocacy organization, "Mobile communications technology has revolutionized how we live, with its influence rapidly extending to new markets and sectors at an ever-increasing rate."

The report, The Enablement Effect: The impact of mobile communications technologies on carbon emission reductions, further asserts: "With the high levels of connectivity and data sharing, mobile is having extensive spill over benefits, opening up possibilities for innovative forms of emissions reductions."

The Executive Summary notes that "[t]he report offers context and provides a high-level analysis of six categories of enabling mechanisms, along with case studies.

"The six different categories are:

• Smart Buildings
• Smart Energy
• Smart Living, Working, and Health
• Smart Transport and Cities
• Smart Agriculture
• Smart Manufacturing

What is more, "This is the first time a report has attempted to assess the enablement impact of mobile communications technology at a global scale. To quantify the total global avoided emissions, 14 countries (in six regions) were identified as a representative global sample from which to extrapolate. This sample consists of France, UK, Spain, Germany, Kenya, Egypt, South Africa, South Korea, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, US, and Australia."

In explaining its main findings, the report says "Two forms of enablement were assessed; smart technologies connecting one machine to another (M2M technologies), also known as the internet of things (IoT), and behavior changes from the personal use of smartphones.

"The majority of avoided emissions from M2M technologies are primarily in buildings, transport, manufacturing, and the energy sector:

• Savings in buildings are a result of technologies that improve energy efficiency and encourage behavior change, reducing gas and electricity consumption. Among these technologies are building management systems and smart meters.
• Mobile communication technology enables the reduction of transport emissions in various ways. It acts as a catalyst for the increase in electric vehicles by facilitating the use of charging points, and, through telematics, creates an improvement in route optimization and vehicle fuel efficiency.
• Within manufacturing, the use of mobile technology for storage and inventory management greatly reduces the overall level of inventory and area needed, increasing efficiency and decreasing energy use for lighting and cooling.
• Smart grids within the energy sector utilize mobile communications technology to help monitor and regulate electricity demand and transmission, to improve coordination and distribution efficiency. Additionally, small-scale renewable electricity generators are able to participate in the wider market by using M2M connections, increasing the amount of green and local energy in the national grid."

Moreover, "To analyse the use of smartphones to facilitate behavior change, the Carbon Trust commissioned a global survey study of more than 6,000 smartphone users in the UK, China, India, USA, Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa. From this research, significant avoided emissions were seen in the areas of:

• Reduced travel for commuting and for leisure
• Increased use of public transport by using apps providing real-time updates
• Accommodation sharing for short stays and holidays
• Reducing travel by use of mobile shopping and mobile banking apps"

The report adds that "[c]ategories of enablement such as agriculture and health are not currently showing a significant impact on avoided emissions. However, both are important as they hold significant future opportunities of enablement by mobile communications technology."

I found this report valuable in obtaining a better understanding on how the use of mobile communications technologies can lead to a reduction of carbon emissions.

Are there aspects of the report that you find valuable or informative?

Aaron Rose is a board member, corporate advisor, and co-founder of great companies. He also serves as the editor of Solutions for a Sustainable World.